Another debate full of … crazy. But Donald Trump declaring that Hillary Clinton “would be in jail” if he won made this a perfect night for Democrats up and down the ballot—from Clinton on down.
That segment alone ensured that the Republican base—already unconcerned about Trump’s “pussy” remarks—would be particularly amped up. To them, Trump’s validation of their “lock her up” chants signaled a debate victory so huge, you have never seen such a victory before in the history of the world!
Never mind that Trump’s real challenge was to expand his base of support, given that he’s already losing big. But he didn’t care about that. He spoke directly to his base, and to them, this was everything they could’ve hoped for and more. They are madly in love.
But back in the real world, downballot Republicans are panicking, with many having already fled that sinking ship. But not only is their newfound independence too little, too late, but Trump’s successful rallying of his base last night made it harder for more Republicans to follow suit—something virtually all of them want to.
Last night, Trump had just a single elected American official in the spin room, Sen. Jeff Sessions. Apparently Chris Christie was too tired of fetching McDonalds for the Donnster to attend the debate. Rudy Giuliani had to perform the job of 10 surrogates in the Sunday morning talk shows, since no one else appeared interested.
And it’s no secret why elected officials have made themselves so scarce: Trump is tanking them all. He was already killing them before the “pussy” tape was released:
Mr. Trump has already slipped perceptibly in public polls, trailing widely this week in Pennsylvania and by smaller margins in Florida and North Carolina — three states he cannot afford to lose. But private polling by both parties shows an even more precipitous drop, especially among independent voters, moderate Republicans and women, according to a dozen strategists from both parties
And the situation has certainly worsened post-”locker room banter that wasn’t in a locker room at all” tape:
Former Representative Thomas M. Reynolds of New York, a former chairman of the National Republican Congressional Committee, said party polling had found voters tilting toward Democrats in congressional elections, even before the latest revelations about Mr. Trump. His setbacks threatened to push voters further away from Republicans, Mr. Reynolds said.
Also:
Marco Rubio was pulling away in Florida, but new info (like the tweet above) suggests it’s back in play. It would be fitting if Donald Trump was the reason Rubio went down in flames, wouldn’t it? The Pennsylvania, North Carolina, and New Hampshire Senate races have been tossups for months. Putting them away would allow us to focus on expanding the map, like grabbing that Missouri Senate seat.
And if numbers are cratering in those states, Arizona can’t be immune, not with Sen. John McCain having tied himself so tightly to Trump. Nevada has to be looking stronger as a hold. Evan Bayh’s deteriorating lead in Indiana has to be stabilizing. And dare we hope that Iowa could swing back into contention?
But note, even the five Senate races in that tweet, plus our sure-fire pickups in Illinois and Wisconsin, would get us to a 53-47 Democratic Senate. 55-45 doesn’t look unreasonable, which would be huge given our difficult 2018 Senate map.
And the House? The House is in play.
Geoffrey Skelley, of the University of Virginia’s Center for Politics, argues that a Clinton victory of 6-points or more might be enough to put the House back in play.
Our own math here at Daily Kos shows that a six-point generic congressional ballot lead would give Democrats a 50-50 chance to take back the House.
Currently, Clinton’s lead in the polling aggregate is 6.3 points, while in the generic congressional ballot it’s 4.2 points. So we’re on the cusp of a big House changeover, but not quite there. But this is pre-”the GOP nominee is into sexually assaulting women” polling, and also doesn’t account for depressed conservative turnout. And, let’s not forget, Republicans are admitting that their own private polling is even more pessimistic than the public numbers.
For their part, Democrats are rushing into the field with a new round of polling to get a new lay of the land:
The Democratic Congressional Campaign Committee planned to do rapid polling early this week to measure the impact of Mr. Trump on the House battlefield.
If we see numbers released by the end of the week, we know they look extra good, and that the House is, indeed, in play.
So … what do those numbers have to do with Trump’s performance last night? This:
Republicans are caught in a no-win scenario: if they stick with Trump, they go down with the ship. But if they part ways, they have to deal with the wrath of Trump and his supporters.
Trump turned in a great performance last night. He wasn’t trying to win new votes. He was sending notice to the GOP—stay in line, or else. It certainly didn’t get him any closer to winning the election, but he made extra sure that few others in his party would win, either.
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