Monmouth is out with a rare poll of the Indiana gubernatorial race, and they give Democrat John Gregg a shockingly strong 50-38 lead over Republican Eric Holcomb. This is a huge change from the school’s August poll, when Holcomb led 42-41. This sample also gives Donald Trump a small 45-41 lead over Hillary Clinton, the closest we’ve ever seen the presidential race in an independent survey.
The only other pollster who has released numbers here in months is the GOP group Public Opinion Strategies, polling on behalf of the political newsletter Howey Politics. Earlier this month, they had Gregg up just 41-39, down from a 40-35 in mid-September. We just don’t have enough data to say whether Monmouth or POS is closer to the truth, but it’s worth noting that POS has also been polling for Holcomb’s ticket-mate, Republican Senate nominee Todd Young, which presents something of a conflict of interest. (POS’s polling for Howey also included the Senate race and had Young trailing Democrat Evan Bayh 42-41, but would Young have allowed POS to release that data had it shown Bayh with a sizable advantage?)
More telling was Holcomb’s response to Monmouth’s new survey, which was particularly weak:
“This poll is a complete outlier and laughably inconsistent with every other public poll released this election season. Our internal data shows we are on a winning trajectory in this margin-of-error contest. After only 12 weeks on the campaign trail, compared to our opponent’s 282-week campaign, we are in the passing lane headed into the home stretch of this race and remain confident that Lt. Governor Eric Holcomb will be Indiana’s next governor.”
In other words, Holcomb’s own campaign is conceding he’s losing right now.
Indiana is a conservative state, and while Gregg came close to beating Mike Pence in 2012, we’ve given the edge to Team Red. However, the limited data we have, as well as Holcomb’s own campaign, says that Gregg is ahead, even if the polls differ by how much. Voters are also usually more open to splitting their tickets in gubernatorial races than in federal contests, so even if Trump takes the Hoosier State, Gregg still can win.
Pence, who dropped his re-election campaign to be Trump’s running mate, also posts just a 47-44 approval rating in Monmouth’s poll, about what POS found. Holcomb has served as Pence’s lieutenant governor since March, but he seems convinced that his outgoing boss isn’t an asset. Notably Holcomb’s ads have invoked the record of ex-Gov. Mitch Daniels, who left office four years ago, but have ignored Pence. For his part, Gregg has run commercials telling voters that Holcomb would just represent a continuation of Pence's disastrous policies. Pence may not be unpopular, but after four years of Pence, which included the 2015 boycotts over the state's anti-LGBT Religious Freedom Restoration Act, neither side seems to think that Trump’s VP will help the GOP hold this seat.
As we always caution, you should never let one poll determine your outlook on a race. Gregg may indeed be doing as well as Monmouth says he is, but again, we just don’t have enough data to say right now. However, we know that Team Red is in for a difficult race, and Daily Kos Elections is changing our rating from Lean Republican to Tossup.