Politics is all about positioning. Paul Ryan has all but conceded the current race and has told Donald Trump, in so many words, to f— off. But if he were taking a principled stance, he would have withdrawn his endorsement altogether or not endorsed him in the first place. I submit that Paul Ryan’s actions are consistent with someone positioning themselves for the 2020 Presidential race.
Paul Ryan is walking a tightrope as Speaker of the House.
Now, Mr. Ryan finds himself in a singular abyss, desperate to maintain the voter enthusiasm needed to preserve Republican control of Congress, yet unable to defend his party’s presidential nominee.
If Mr. Trump is defeated on Nov. 8 — as Mr. Ryan has all but conceded — but Republicans maintain their House majority, it will fall largely to Mr. Ryan to piece the rubble of his party back together.
There is, of course, the question of whether House members would let him do so. The Republicans’ crisis would have an early reckoning with the House decision on whether the speaker should be Mr. Ryan — whose beliefs in free trade, tolerance toward immigration, changes to entitlement programs and conservative governance have long been Republican orthodoxy — or a new brand of leader who embodies Trumpism.
The knives, of course, are out for Paul Ryan. There was an attempt to primary him earlier in the year, and there will be plenty of Trump supporters in Congress who think that Speaker Ryan was insufficiently supportive of the GOP nominee. He is walking a tightrope. If he can’t get his agenda through and keep the gavel without Democratic support (assuming he can keep the House in the first place), then his political future is done. But assuming the GOP keeps the House and Ryan keeps his speakership, he can position himself as the person best able to unite the disparate factions of the Republican Party.
Instead of coordinating with Mr. Trump, Speaker Ryan used his position to advance his own agenda (hint — it’s the same tired old politics as usual; tax cuts for the rich, corporate welfare, austerity for the rest of us). That is a way of seeking to get a head start on the competition, by having an agenda already in place that he can pitch. As speaker, if he runs for President, he will have plenty of willing surrogates who owe him favors speaking for him. He can try to bring Mitt Romney and his disgruntled supporters back into the fold, along with those who are voting for Evan McMullin, who is currently polling 20% in Utah.
But one potential enemy he has is GOP Chairman Rence Priebus. Mr. Priebus was enraged that Speaker Ryan dragged his feet on endorsing Donald Trump and he can throw roadblocks in his way. After all, Mr. Priebus and his friends can argue, why should we trust Paul Ryan to unite the party when he is not a team player himself?
The GOP has always been a party of elders, in which one waits one’s turn. In 1988, it was George H.W. Bush’s turn. It 1996, it was Bob Dole’s. In 2000, it was George W. Bush’s turn. In 2008, it was John McCain’s. In 2012, it was Mitt Romney. Donald Trump broke this trend in 2016. But Paul Ryan can argue in 2020 that he has done the most to keep the party together and put forth an agenda that everyone in the caucus can agree on. In other words, it’s now his turn.
Mike Pence is a more polished version of Donald Trump, but he will have trouble appealing out of the base, and he and Mr. Trump did not always see eye to eye. Ted Cruz made a blatant play for 2020 at the GOP Convention and is now trying to repeat his strategy from last time — position himself as a conservative outsider and hope that the former Trump supporters fall into his lap. That explains Mr. Cruz’s sudden forgiveness of Mr. Trump after being reticent to the point of taking heat from his own supporters. John Kasich can sit and say, “I told you so,” but will have trouble getting beyond the moderate wing of the party — or what’s left of it. Marco Rubio alienated himself from the Trump wing and alienated himself from the moderate wing.
But one of the biggest obstacles to a Ryan nomination is Donald Trump, and there is no love lost between the two men. It is obvious that Donald Trump is seeking to form a new network in conjunction with Roger Ailes and Breitbart, given the fact that Mr. Ailes and Steve Bannon of Breitbart are two of his biggest allies. It may well be that Mr. Trump is seeking to recreate The Apprentice on steroids and form Trump TV. Putin, of course, would love to be able to funnel Russian money towards such a project to continue his propaganda war against the US. Ailes, who was forced out of FOX News to cover their rears after looking the other way towards Mr. Ailes’ sexual harassment for a long time, would like nothing more than to get back at his former network. He lives for conflict and controversy. Donald Trump would like nothing more, if he loses, to be the power broker for the GOP next time and to be able to say, “Paul Ryan, you’re a disaster. You’re fired.”