We’re finally getting a flood of polling, and without a doubt, we’re watching Donald Trump’s floor collapsing under him. So what are the latest numbers? Remember that I changed how we’re tracking these numbers now, transitioning to our own state aggregation models. I’m still pulling the national numbers from Huffington Post’s Pollster. So without further ado, let’s get to today’s dose of “Holy shit, are things really looking this good?” Also, note the new states on the chart.
Michigan is off the chart, with Donald Trump losing the state by 10.9 points. Virginia is also off, with Hillary Clinton now ahead by 9.7 points.
Do you guys realize just how ridiculous it is that I added Alaska, Indiana, South Carolina, Texas, and Utah to the chart? There’s no reason they should be anywhere near competitive, and yet they are better pickup opportunities for Clinton than must-win Pennsylvania is for Trump!
In Colorado, Trump is getting 37.1 percent in the aggregate. What a freakin’ joke, barely getting one-third of voters in the home of the still-loyal Christian Right.
Florida is a done deal. Only drama there is whether we can win the Senate seat as well—let’s call it a “cherry on top.”
Georgia and Iowa flipped from Trump leads to Clinton leads. I refuse to believe we’ll carry either of them. Yet ...
In fact, every state on the chart moved in Clinton’s direction except for Ohio.
So let’s tally up the count if these numbers reflected the election final results:
Yeah, I gave Clinton that Nebraska EV. Feel free to take it away if you think I’m being optimistic.
So now what happens if the numbers shift a massive five points in TRUMP’s direction?
Even a campaign-shattering 5-point shift wouldn’t be enough for Trump to overcome his general weaknesses. (And wouldn’t be even if you gave him that single EV in Maine, which he seems bizarrely obsessed with winning.)
Now, let’s see what would happen in a far more possible scenario, that the bottom falls out of Trump’s support, Republicans stay home, and the numbers shift five points in CLINTON’s direction:
Oh, SO CLOSE to getting Trump under 100 EVs! Wouldn’t that be hilarious? And yet there’s a definite path to that, with Utah Republicans casting their lot with Evan McMullin, and even delivering victory to whoever that guy is, or possibly Clinton herself in that split field. Thus, if Trump were to lose Utah, he would end with 97 electoral votes and we would laugh and laugh and laugh. Then we’d point at Trump and laugh some more. (We’ll do all that laughing anyway.)
Do any states really want to go through life being called “Trump states”? Damn, that would be humiliating!
In any case, Clinton is going to win. The only question left is how much we can rig this thing by, you know, by doing GOTV actions and getting out our vote. It’s not just about delivering a historic beatdown at the top of the ticket, but also maximizing the number of Democrats riding this wave all the way down the ballot.
That’s up to us. So sign up with MoveOn to call voters in swing states from the comfort of your home. Get out the vote and let’s utterly decimate whatever this monster called the “Republican Party” has become!
p.s. If I hear one more person “worry” about complacency, I’m going to rip my hair out. Do people stop going to games of winning teams because victory is assured? No! People love winners, and want to be part of that winning team! It’s the losers who can’t get people to show up in support.
But if you’re really that worried, then do something about it. Clicking that link above would be a good one. Donating to your favorite candidates would be another way. And one of the best things you can do? Be your own data-driven GOTV operation, find out which of your friends, family members, and co-workers share your politics, then make sure they vote. The earlier the better (where possible)!
Let’s make that bottom map (plus Utah!) happen.