Leading Off:
● NH-Sen: Granite State Solutions, a Republican super PAC working in concert with Mitch McConnell's Senate Leadership Fund, just took New Hampshire's Senate race to a nasty new low. As part of its $23 million ad campaign, the group launched a new TV spot on Tuesday accusing Democratic Gov. Maggie Hassan's husband, Tom Hassan, of "cover[ing] up" a scandal involving a teacher accused of engaging in sexual misconduct with two students at the prestigious Philips Exeter Academy, where Tom Hassan was principal until last year. The teacher, Rick Schubart, was forced out in 2011, but the while the school says it informed police, it did not publicly disclose the charges against him, and the story only came out earlier this when the Boston Globe first reported it.
But what on earth does any of this have to do with Maggie Hassan? Schubart and his wife donated some $375 over the years to Hassan's various campaigns, and Hassan listed him on a "steering committee" for her 2012 gubernatorial bid, along with dozens of other people. Or as the ad's narrator puts it, "Hassan took campaign cash from the sexual predator and put him on her steering committee." (Hassan's campaign later donated $1,000 to a charity for victims of sexual violence.)
The spot then shows a clip from an awkward interview in which Hassan is shown saying, "Well, I sensed something was wrong because of the teacher's abrupt departure from the school. … I didn't know, and I didn't have information I could pass on." The final words are left to an unseen interviewer, who says to Hassan, "But your husband was principal of the school at the time." The implication, of course, is that Hassan knew or should have known about Schubart. But Hassan has said that her husband's confidentiality obligations to Exeter prevented him from discussing the matter with her.
It's possible that GOP polling suggests this line of attack is particularly deadly, which is why they're saving it until the very end in the hopes of using it as some sort of knockout blow. But the entire line of attack is a stretch, and it's also possible Republicans are deploying it out of desperation, in which case it could backfire. Thankfully, there are only two weeks left before we find out which.
Senate:
● Senate: We have some new major outside spending in several Senate contests:
● GA-Sen: Last week, the National Organization of Realtors' political arm launched a $1 million TV buy for Republican Sen. Johnny Isakson.
● IN-Sen: The NRSC recently reserved an additional $515,000 here, and they began that new ad buy on Monday against Democrat Evan Bayh.
● MO-Sen: The NRSC has reserved an additional $1.2 million to help Republican Sen. Roy Blunt. The Senate Leadership Fund will spend an additional $800,000. CULAC, the PAC of the Credit Union National Association (which sadly is not officially called "CULAC The PAC") has also launched a $371,000 TV buy for Blunt.
● NC-Sen: The NRSC has reserved $2 million to help Republican Sen. Richard Burr; aside from a $1.5 million summer coordinated buy with Burr, this is actually their first expenditure here. SLF will also spend another $2.5 million for Team Red. On the Democratic side, EMILY's List is spending another $1.4 million on TV for Democrat Deborah Ross.
● NH-Sen: Last week, AFSCME and the AFL-CIO launched a $1.4 million TV buy against Republican Sen. Kelly Ayotte.
● NV-Sen: SLF is not messing around. The Hill reports that, over the next two weeks, SLF will spend an additional $8.3 million. At the beginning of October, the group said they were planning to spend $8.3 million total here, so it seems they've at least doubled their commitment. (The Hill's Reed Wilson confirms that this $8.3 million expenditure is a new investment for the final two weeks of the campaign.)
● PA-Sen: The Club for Growth has thrown another $1.9 million behind its TV ads for GOP Sen. Pat Toomey, the Club's former leader.
● WI-Sen: Last week, the conservative Reform America Fund filed an FEC report for $1.3 million in support of GOP Sen. Ron Johnson, though some of that money went to ad production.
● Polls: Two more weeks. Two more weeks.
● AR-Sen: Talk Business/Hendrix College: John Boozman (R-inc): 52, Conner Eldridge (D): 34 (56-33 Trump) (Sept.: 55-29 Boozman)
● AZ-Sen: Monmouth: John McCain (R-inc): 50, Ann Kirkpatrick (D): 40 (46-45 Trump)
● FL-Sen: Associated Industries of Florida (R): Marco Rubio (R-inc): 43, Patrick Murphy (D): 38 (44-41 Clinton) (Oct.: 49-41 Rubio)
● IL-Sen: Victory Research: Tammy Duckworth (D): 50, Mark Kirk (R-inc): 39 (51-36 Clinton) (July: 46-37 Duckworth)
● NC-Sen: Siena: Deborah Ross (D): 47, Richard Burr (R-inc): 46 (46-39 Clinton) (Sept.: 46-42 Ross)
● NC-Gov: Siena: Roy Cooper (D): 51, Pat McCrory (R-inc): 45 (46-39 Clinton) (Sept.: 50-42 Cooper)
● NH-Sen: YouGov: Kelly Ayotte (R-inc): 48, Maggie Hassan (D): 44 (Aug.: 42-41 Hassan)
● NH-Gov: YouGov: Colin Van Ostern (D): 44, Chris Sununu (R): 43
● NV-Sen: Rasmussen: Catherine Cortez Masto (D): 43, Joe Heck (R): 41 (46-42 Clinton) (Sept.: 44-40 Heck)
● NV-Sen: Bendixen & Amandi International for the Las Vegas Review-Journal: Cortez Masto (D): 45, Heck (R): 44 (48-41 Clinton) (Sept.: 47-45 Heck)
● WI-Sen: WPA Opinion Research (R) for the Club for Growth (here and here): Russ Feingold (D): 45, Ron Johnson (R-inc): 42
● WI-Sen: McLaughlin & Associates (R) for Let America Work: Feingold (D): 48, Johnson (R-inc): 46 (48-43 Clinton) (Aug.: 50-47 Feingold)
● WA-Gov: Elway Research: Jay Inslee (D-inc): 51, Bill Bryant (R): 39 (48-31 Clinton) (Aug.: 48-36 Inslee)
Two more weeks.
Remember those days when, if we wrote, "Good news… for John McCain!" it was ironic? Unfortunately, most recent polling has been genuinely good for the senator, even with Donald Trump in real danger of losing this usually red state. Major outside groups haven't gotten involved in the general election, and there's no sign that will change.
Politico says that the Associated Industries of Florida poll was sent out as a confidential email and that Politico acquired it, so this survey may never have been meant to see the light of day. In any case, it's the latest poll to give GOP Sen. Marco Rubio a lead, but not an insurmountable edge. Both candidates have lost support over the last two weeks, though that mostly seems to be because AIF added "someone else" as an option between the two polls.
We have seen very little from Victoria Research, which says on their site that they've worked for both Illinois Democrats like ex-Gov. Pat Quinn and Republicans like Rep. Peter Roskam. There has been minimal outside spending in Illinois, and both sides are acting like Kirk is a goner.
Ross' edge in the Siena poll is small, but it's actually only her second lead in any poll released this month. Hillary Clinton's 46-39 lead in North Carolina is also larger than what almost any pollster has found recently. Jonathan Martin of the New York Times, which commissioned the survey, tweets that Siena's presidential result mirrors GOP polling, but we can't verify that.
The YouGov New Hampshire poll is one of Republican Sen. Kelly Ayotte's best results in a while. Interestingly, this is one of the few polls that shows Democratic gubernatorial nominee Colin Van Ostern doing better than Senate candidate Maggie Hassan, though that may be because more voters are undecided in the gubernatorial race.
Both Nevada polls give Democrat Catherine Cortez Masto tiny leads, but neither survey comes from a particularly friendly source for Team Blue. Rasmussen is one of the very few pollsters to continue to find a close presidential race nationally. Bendixen & Amandi is polling for the Las Vegas Review-Journal, which is owned by conservative mega donor Sheldon Adelson and just happens to be one of the very few newspapers in the nation to endorse Trump.
About two weeks ago, a few polls were released showing an unexpectedly tight race in Wisconsin between Democrat Russ Feingold and GOP Sen. Ron Johnson (and Loras College even gave Johnson his first and only lead in any poll), and there was renewed talk that this race had tightened enough for Johnson to pull off an upset. However, major outside groups from both sides still have yet to air ads in the Badger State (the DSCC still seems to have a reservation for the final weeks of the contest, but they don't appear to have run any ads yet) and a few recent polls gave Feingold a stronger edge.
Johnson's allies at the Club for Growth and his allied super PAC Let America Work are dropping polls arguing that Johnson is only slightly behind. The Club recently launched a $750,000 buy, so they are putting their money where their mouth is. However, well-funded GOP groups like the Senate Leadership Fund have yet to take the bait, and Democrats don't sound worried.
Two more weeks.
Gubernatorial:
● MT-Gov: We have campaign financial reports covering the period of Sept. 27 to Oct. 19, and unsurprisingly, Republican Greg Gianforte is continuing to open up his wallet. During this time, Gianforte self-funded an additional $2 million, taking his total personal investment in this race to $5.1 million; Gianforte raised an additional $238,000 from donors. Democratic Gov. Steve Bullock raised $311,000 during this period, and Gianforte outspent him on television $1.25 million to $803,000.
However, Bullock's allies at the DGA dropped $1.5 million in the last month, while there's no word if the RGA spent to help Gianforte. According to the Center for Public Integrity's ad tracker, the DGA's group "Good Jobs Montana" group has spent $2.1 million on broadcast TV ads during the entire campaign, while the RGA spent just $263,000.
Speaking of Gianforte ads, he has a new spot that accuses Bullock of paying out $900,000 in "hush money" to state employees. Newspapers flash across the screen with awful headlines, including a Boozman Daily Chronicle edition blaring, "Steve Bullock's administration paid hush money to state employees." However, the Daily Chronicle writes that no, they never said that, nor did they even use the word "hush money" in their original story. The Gianforte ad presumes a lot of details, and even makes up a few beyond the headlines, including saying that an attorney quoted by the Daily Chronicle was a Democrat when the paper didn't identify his party.
● NJ-Gov: A little while ago, Assemblyman John Wisniewski said he would form an exploratory committee ahead of a possible 2017 bid, and he confirmed this week that he's done it. Several other Democrats prepared gubernatorial campaigns only to back off due to the strength of Phil Murphy, a former Goldman Sachs executive and ambassador to Germany. Wisniewski is already positioning himself as someone who will stand up to Wall Street and financial interests. However, if he makes his bid official, he's going to have a very tough time against Murphy, who has plenty of money and support from influential New Jersey Democrats.
● VT-Gov: On behalf of the local station WCAX, Braun Research gives us a rare look at the general election, and they have Republican Phil Scott leading Democrat Sue Minter by a wide 47-40. The only other poll we've seen was a Castleton Polling Institute survey that showed Scott up 39-38, but that poll was in the field for an absurdly-long 17-day period.
Braun of course is a sellsword who has very little loyalty to anyone but himself, so you should treat these numbers with… oh sorry, that's Bronn we're thinking of. Braun Research is a pollster we haven't seen any horserace numbers from since the early 2014 special election for FL-13. Back then, we noted that Braun surveyed several Kentucky races in 2010 and 2011 and didn't do very well overall; in fact, they blew the 2011 agriculture race by an astounding 44 points. Of course, it's been a long time since then, so maybe Braun has fixed whatever bugs they had.
In any case, with so little polling data, it's tough to know what's going on in Vermont. Outside groups from both sides are continuing to run ads, but all that tells us is that they don't think either Minter or Scott is running away with this contest.
House:
● CA-31: Back in June, Republican Paul Chabot released a Remington Research poll showing him unexpectedly tied 43-43 with Democratic freshman Rep. Pete Aguilar in a Redlands seat that Obama carried 57-40. That poll didn't convince major GOP outside groups to get involved, but Chabot is trying again. A new poll from Chabot's campaign shows Aguilar ahead just 3 points. The campaign tells us this poll was also done by Remington, and that the margin was 45-42.
Chabot and Aguilar faced off in 2014, and Aguilar won just 51-49. However, Aguilar is the incumbent this time, and more importantly, presidential turnout should help him. This seat is located in the expensive Los Angeles media market, so national Republicans are unlikely to spend here unless they're really convinced it's close.
● CA-49: GOP Rep. Darrell Issa tries to throw the kitchen sink at Democrat Doug Applegate, starting with a clip of Applegate saying he's "been a trial lawyer for three-and-a-half decades." A histrionic narrator then takes over and declares that Applegate wants to "raise taxes on the middle class and small business" and calls for "slashing the military, devastating our local economy" (the San Diego area is home to major naval operations). Then, growing even more overwrought, she says, "Applegate's personal behavior is even worse" and claims he was "called unethical for ripping off a client," "ordered to surrender his guns to the police," and was "even caught peeping into a woman's bedroom window."
Bizarrely, the ad concludes with more footage of Applegate from the same appearance, saying, "I usually don't lead with that, because I'm not gonna get any votes." It's a self-deprecating joke about being a trial lawyer, but unless you're paying very close attention, it makes zero sense to sandwich 20 seconds of attacks between those two clips. In any event, as for the charges about guns and peeping, those stem from allegations made by Applegate's ex-wife years ago following their divorce; she's since denounced Issa for raising these issues and endorsed her former spouse's congressional bid.
Meanwhile, the DCCC links Issa to Donald Trump, featuring clips of some of Trump's worst hits as a narrator reminds viewers that Issa's been a loyal supporter and even "joined the Trump campaign" after the GOP's presidential nominee denigrated veterans suffering from post-traumatic stress.
● CO-06: The NRCC features a series of female actors berating Democrat Morgan Carroll for opposing a bill that would have required sex offenders to register their online profiles and for being "the only one to vote against tougher penalties for child predators using the internet." The former bill was as stupid as it sounds, since it's trivial for anyone to create a new email address or Facebook page. The latter vote would have instituted mandatory minimum sentences for offenders, but many were already receiving such sentences.
● FL-07: Over the last two weeks, Democrats dropped two polls giving Stephanie Murphy a narrow lead against Republican Rep. John Mica, and the NRCC recently reserved $1.4 million to defend the incumbent. Mica is now out with his own poll from Cherry Communications giving him a 47-42 lead; presidential numbers were not included. That's down considerably from a mid-September Cherry poll that had him up 52-34, which was done before many Democratic ads had aired.
● MN-03: Well, this is different. Until now, national Republicans have almost completely left well-funded Republican Rep. Erik Paulsen to fend for himself against Democrat Terri Bonoff, but the NRCC is now out with a commercial against her. The ad features a clip of Bonoff declaring she's been willing to vote for unpopular taxes, and the narrator argues she loved to tax Minnesota while raising her own salary. Right now, it's unclear how much money the NRCC is putting behind this new ad. As of Oct. 21, they had $2.4 million reserved in the Twin Cities that they could use on ads in either this contest, or in the 2nd or 8th District.
In recent weeks, this contest has looked very good for Paulsen. The Democratic group House Majority PAC canceled their entire reservation here, while SurveyUSA released a poll last week giving Paulsen a 49-38 edge, even as Hillary Clinton led 48-35. However, HMP recently released their own poll showing Paulsen up just 45-42, though we haven't seen any renewed spending from them yet. The DCCC also never cut back any of its planned ad buys, and they even earmarked an additional $552,000 for this race over the last week.
● NH-01: This is super frustrating. YouGov is out with a survey of this contest for UMass Amherst and Boston's CBS affiliate, and it gives Democrat Carol Shea-Porter a small 41-37 lead over Republican Rep. Frank Guinta. However, the poll did not include Shawn O'Conner, a wealthy Democrat-turned-independent. They did include Libertarian Rob Lombardo, who grabs a hefty 9 percent, and an additional 3 percent say they'd back another candidate. Maybe Lombardo is taking up most of the O'Conner people who just don't like either Shea-Porter or Guinta, but we can't say that for sure.
The only other recent poll we've seen was a UNH poll that gave Shea-Porter a 43-29 lead over Guinta, with O'Conner taking 10 and another 2 percent saying they'd back somebody else. Each party has been sending contradictory signals about how they feel about this race. The DCCC recently canceled their entire $1.1 million reservation, while their allies at House Majority PAC also pulled out of the state a little while ago. In late September, HMP released a poll showing Shea-Porter up 44-34, so Team Blue almost certainly is leaving this race because they think she's in a good position. However, while the NRCC canceled a small $87,000 over the last week, most of their $3 million reservation is still on the books, so they're not behaving like this is over.
● NJ-07: Both parties have ignored this 53-46 Romney seat in central New Jersey, but Democrat Peter Jacob is making a late effort to change that. Jacob is out with a PPP survey that shows him tied with Republican Rep. Leonard Lance 45-45, and has Hillary Clinton leading 45-44 here. Jacob has raised very little money, so he's going to need significant outside support. However, this district is located in the ultra expensive New York City media market, so national Democrats are going to really need to be convinced that this race is winnable before they wade in here.
● UT-04: With even Democrats releasing polls showing Doug Owens 8 to 10 points behind GOP Rep. Mia Love, it's no surprise that Dan Jones & Associates' new survey for Utah Policy is a bit worse. They give Love a 51-38 lead, which is actually an improvement over the 53-35 Love edge they found a month ago. Note that this poll was in the field Oct. 12-22, which is a very long time, especially this far into the election cycle.
The good news for Owens is that his allies at House Majority PAC evidently aren't dismayed. HMP reserved $403,000 months ago, and while they triaged a few other contests, they're now out with their first spot here. The commercial argues that Love is a "socialite congressman" who enjoys lavish D.C. parties and spending taxpayer money on mailers to promote herself. They also accuse her of voting against an education bill because she was too busy having fun to actually read it.
Other Races:
● Ballot Measures: Stephen Wolf takes a detailed look at how voters could use ballot initiatives to sidestep hostile Republican legislators and implement certain policies that maintain broad public support. Voters in Arizona, California, Maine, Massachusetts, and Nevada could all vote to legalize marijuana for recreational purposes, which would make the drug legal under state law for nearly a quarter of the country, while a few other states could expand access to medicinal marijuana too. Meanwhile, Arizona, Colorado, Maine, and Washington voters could raise their minimum wages to $12 or more, while Arizona and Washington could also mandate employers offer paid sick leave.
Ad Roundup:
● FL-Sen: Floridians for a Strong Middle Class (D); $800,000 buy.
● MO-Sen: Majority Forward (D).
● NH-Sen: Republican Sen. Kelly Ayotte (R). DSCC.
● PA-Sen: Pat Toomey (R). Senate Leadership Fund (R). Majority Forward (D).
● MT-Gov: Greg Gianforte (R).
● VT-Gov: RGA.
● AZ-01: Tom O'Halleran (D). House Majority PAC (D).
● CA-07: Democratic Rep. Ami Bera features Obama praising him as a doctor who has helped veterans and fought to protect Medicare and Social Security.
● CA-21: The American Action Network follows Republican Rep. David Valadao in attacking Democrat Emilio Huerta over a decade-old land deal. They claim he corruptly used his influence with the United Farm Workers union to swoop in and take land slated for a low-income housing project and sell it off to developers at a huge profit. However, this is totally a misleading characterization, as the union had already cancelled the housing-project idea well beforehand and had wanted to unload the property to finance other ventures, which is when Huerta and his partners stepped up to bid on the property.
● CO-03: House Majority PAC (D).
● CO-06: Congressional Leadership Fund (R).
● FL-07: Stephanie Murphy (D).
● FL-18: NRCC.
● FL-26: Congressional Leadership Fund (R).
● FL-26: The DCCC attempts to link Republican Rep. Carlos Curbelo to Trump's positions on a range of issues like immigration and calling Social Security a "Ponzi scheme." Meanwhile, House Majority PAC has a Spanish attack against Curbelo that covers very similar territory.
● IA-01: NRCC.
● IA-03: Congressional Leadership Fund (R).
● IN-02: Republican Rep. Jackie Walorski continues to feel the need to attack Democrat Lynn Coleman, this time arguing he will march in lock-step with those who want to raise taxes and increase spending.
● IN-09: Shelli Yoder (D).
● KS-03: Jay Sidie (D).
● ME-02: Congressional Leadership Fund (R).
● MI-01: House Majority PAC (D). American Action Network (R). NRCC.
● MI-07: House Majority PAC (D).
● MI-07: American Action Network rolls out a groan-worthy segment hitting Democrat Gretchen Driskell for supporting higher taxes and higher pay for herself while in office. In an otherwise run-of-the-mill spot, they desperately try make fetch happen with the tagline "When it comes to all things fiscal, Michigan can't afford Gretchen Driskell." Gretchen can tell them first-hand that they should "stop trying to make fetch happen," because it's not going to happen.
● MN-02: Angie Craig (D). NRCC.
● MN-03: Democrat Terri Bonoff puts some minor tweaks into updating an earlier ad where she used the "Minnesota nice" theme to politely shackle Republican Rep. Erik Paulsen to Donald Trump. The latest version just changes a few words to note that Paulsen long supported Trump until the last minute and shares his reactionary views on abortion and same-sex marriage.
● MN-08: House Majority PAC (D).
● MN-08: The Congressional Leadership Fund attacks Democratic Rep. Rick Nolan for being one of just four House members who voted against a 2013 military appropriations bill, framing it as hostility toward veterans. However, when Republicans ran similar ads three years ago, Nolan noted he voted against the Republican majority's bill because he felt it didn't do enough to fund veterans' programs. Of course, it will be up to Nolan to make that case to voters.
● MT-AL: House Majority PAC (D).
● NE-02: House Majority PAC (D). Congressional Leadership Fund (R). NRCC.
● NJ-05: House Majority PAC (D).
● NV-03: The conservative group Ending Spending spent heavily against Republican Danny Tarkanian in the June primary, but they're now launching a $1.8 million buy to help him. Both their ad and the NRCC's portray Democrat Jacky Rosen as just a puppet of Harry Reid and Nancy Pelosi. Rosen's spot accuses Tarkanian of setting up fake charities that preyed on seniors, while she pledges that she'll stand up for them in Congress.
● NV-04: The NRCC portrays Democrat Ruben Kihuen as corrupt. House Majority PAC spends half their spot tying Republican Rep. Cresent Hardy to Donald Trump, and the remaining part praising Kihuen. It's pretty unusual to see a national group air a positive ad at this point in the race. A recent DCCC poll showed Kihuen running a bit behind Hillary Clinton here, and his allies may have decided that they need to boost his favorables a bit.
● NY-19: The NRCC ties Democrat Zephyr Teachout to Bernie Sanders, who hasn't really been a villain in many GOP ads this cycle. In fact, several recent national polls showed Sanders quite well-liked, so it's surprising that the NRCC thinks that portraying him and Teachout as crazy socialists is a good strategy.
● NY-22: Kim Myers (D).
● NY-24: House Majority PAC (D). NRCC.
● PA-08: Last week, House Majority PAC launched an ad arguing that Republican Brian Fitzpatrick is nothing like his brother, retiring Rep. Mike Fitzpatrick. Now, Mike Fitzpatrick is staring in a spot for his brother. The congressman insists that, despite what the negative ads say, Brian Fitzpatrick grew up in the community and is a problem solver, not a partisan. The DCCC also has a spot.
● PA-16: Christina Hartman (D).
● TX-23: House Majority PAC (D): (here and here). NRCC.
● VA-05: Tom Garrett (R). Congressional Leadership Fund (R).
● VA-10: Barbara Comstock (R). Congressional Leadership Fund (R). NRCC. DCCC.
● WI-08: Congressional Leadership Fund (R). DCCC.
The Daily Kos Elections Morning Digest is compiled by David Nir, Jeff Singer, and Stephen Wolf, with additional contributions from David Jarman, Steve Singiser, Daniel Donner, and James Lambert.