In a year when Democrats have everything to gain by running the table, the Democratic Senatorial Campaign Committee (run by Sens. Chuck Schumer and Jon Tester) has decided to abandon their recruit, Patrick Murphy, in Florida and instead have "redirected millions of dollars from Florida to North Carolina, Missouri and Indiana." And that's not going over well with all the other Democrats, including Harry Reid, Florida Sen. Bill Nelson, President Obama, and Hillary and Bill Clinton.
They reason that those states are both much cheaper to advertise in and offer a more promising path to the Senate majority than Florida, where Rubio has long been favored to defeat Democratic Rep. Patrick Murphy.
But Reid and other Democrats believe that defeating Rubio would be the ultimate Election Day trophy for Democrats, given his national stature and the reelection threat he could pose to a potential President Hillary Clinton in 2020.
With just two weeks until Election Day, time is running short for Democrats to shift their approach, particularly after the DSCC and Senate Majority PAC scrapped $16 million in ad reservations in the state that would be far more expensive to purchase now. Murphy is getting pummeled by Republicans on the airwaves—the GOP and conservative outside groups are outspending Democratic groups by 4-to-1—yet the party is poised to leave Murphy to fend for himself in the final weeks of the race.
Marco Rubio is the Republican establishment's great white hope. He will abandon Florida again to run against Clinton in four years. But his political career could be destroyed by two losses in Florida in one year—the humiliation he got at the hands of Donald Trump in the presidential primary and this Senate race. Doing everything possible to squash him now makes all the sense—not just to take a potential contender out of commission in four years, but in the immediate term it would mean netting one more Democratic Senate seat.
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It is expensive, but here's the thing: Schumer himself had $20 million in his own campaign coffers at the beginning of this month. He's using some of that money in his own re-election campaign. Which essentially doesn't exist because he's not seriously challenged. He's spending his money on TV ads that he doesn't need in New York, in addition to more than $6 million he's diverted into other Senate races. There are plenty of people who want to spend money in Florida to try to beat Rubio.
Right now the internal polling ranges from Murphy being within striking distance to down 10 points. Daily Kos's polling average of public polls has him down 4.5 points, holding Rubio under 50 percent at 46, with nearly 12 percent of the electorate undecided. This is not out of reach. According to Politico, "Murphy’s biggest problem is that he’s underperforming Clinton by double-digit percentages with black and Hispanic voters." There's a very big opening for him there, but these voters "don’t even know who Murphy is." That opening is because Florida Latinos are not happy with Rubio, at all, because he sold his soul to Donald Trump. They are there for the convincing—they just need to know about him. And there's probably plenty of media time left on black and Latino radio and television for ads.
Everything points to making Florida a priority—Rubio's unpopular and damaged (and yet is still the GOP's future hope, which is a whole other story) and could be taken out now. Murphy was recruited by the DSCC for this race and abandoning him now just doesn't make sense.