Leading Off:
● CA-49: Amazing. Republican Rep. Darrell Issa spent years wasting millions of dollars in taxpayer money to conduct bogus "investigations" of the Obama administration that never went anywhere. But just like a classic bully—just like his idol, Donald Trump, in fact—he can dish it out but can't take a punch.
Issa faces his toughest re-election campaign in forever, thanks to Democrat Doug Applegate, a retired Marine colonel who, unlike his opponent, isn't afraid of the rough and tumble. Applegate recently started airing his first TV ad of the race, a hard-hitting spot in which he directly links Issa to Trump. After playing a clip of Trump declaring "I'm really rich. Nobody knows the system better than me," a narrator explains that Issa likewise "gamed the system to line his own pockets steering millions in taxpayer money to help properties he owned," relying on a very negative 2011 New York Times piece about Issa's self-dealing for factual support.
So how did Issa react? Like the cowardly whiner that he is, he's threatening to file a lawsuit alleging that Applegate has defamed him! Seriously, no one in politics ever does this. It's insane. But Issa's serious: He even sent the Applegate campaign a draft of his complaint that he's ready to file in court at a moment's notice if Applegate doesn't cower before him.
The entire thing is nuts, though. Issa's cockamamie claim centers around a screenshot where that "gamed the system" quote is rendered in a newspaper-style headline, above a New York Times logo displayed on a slant. It's the kind of visual technique used in a million campaign ads.
But Issa's delusional attorneys are calling this image defamatory because it "inappropriately misleads California voters by falsely attributing quotes to an article in which such quotes do not exist." They also try to claim that the article itself has been discredited because of a few small corrections issued after the fact (such as the paper printing the word "billion" when it meant "million"), even though it still lives on the Times' website. And that's really it. Applegate's summary of the article is totally fair—just read the piece for yourself. It's a devastating portrait of a congressman who has used his time in office to get extremely rich, and there's just no getting around that.
You know what else that screenshot shows? The rest of the newspaper-esque text contains "lorem ipsum"—filler text based on a book by the ancient Roman orator Cicero that's routinely used by graphic designers. Does Issa also want to claim that Applegate is deceiving voters because the Times isn't actually written in Latin?
(An aside: Hilariously, Issa's complaint takes the time to reference the fact that we here at Daily Kos Elections wrote up this ad. Why exactly they'd bother mentioning this we don't know, but we're flattered that people are reading us!)
But the best part comes at the end of the letter Issa's lawyers sent to the Applegate campaign. In addition to demanding Applegate take down the ad, yadda yadda, Issa is also insisting that Applegate "issue a public apology." Applegate made it clear in a statement that this is never going to happen:
"I'm a Marine Colonel who volunteered to go to Iraq in 2006 and spent a good chunk of my tour in Ramadi. Congressman Issa's money and lawyers don't scare me one bit. It's incredible that someone whose career consists of conducting costly, partisan investigations is so thin-skinned. Clearly, Congressman Issa doesn't want to talk about how he made millions as a member of Congress while consistently failing to improve the lives of California families. I'm not going to back down from a politician who puts his party ahead of what's best for our country—not today, not ever."
Issa's squealing like a stuck pig because polling has shown this race exceptionally close and he doesn't know how to deal with it. In fact, a new Democratic survey released this week showed the incumbent with just a 48-46 lead. But like we've said, Issa is fantastically rich, and he can try to bury Applegate with ads of his own, so this remains a tough race. Issa, though, might play for Team Red, but he just showed his true color: yellow.
Senate:
● Senate: The GOP group the Senate Leadership Fund, which is close to Majority Leader Mitch McConnell, announced on Friday that it would spend an additional $21 million in six contests:
● IN-Sen: Spending an additional $4.5 million, bringing total planned spending to $8.5 million
● MO-Sen: Spending an additional $5.3 million, bringing total planned spending to $7.8 million
● NC-Sen: Spending an additional $900,000, bringing total planned spending to $9 million
● NH-Sen: Spending an additional $7 million, bringing total planned spending to $22.8 million
● NV-Sen: Spending an additional $2.3 million, bringing total planned spending to $8.3 million
● PA-Sen: Spending an additional $1 million, bringing total planned spending to $7.5 million
SLF is also the latest group to slash their spending in the Ohio Senate race, where polls constantly show Republican Sen. Rob Portman ahead. According to the Washington Post, the organization has cut nearly $7 million from this contest, and they plan to just spend $1.2 million now. SLF has also not added any money to Florida, where they still plan to spend $10.8 million to help Sen. Marco Rubio.
Only a few weeks ago, there was little outside spending in Missouri on either side. That's very much changed, and the SLF's extra $5.3 million is only the latest sign that, despite the Show Me State's red hue, Republican Sen. Roy Blunt is in a tough race with Democrat Jason Kander.
It's also worth noting where the SLF isn't sending their extra millions. The group is not dropping anything to help the two most vulnerable Senate Republicans in the nation, Mark Kirk in Illinois and Ron Johnson in Wisconsin. While the SLF's allies at the NRSC are reportedly about to spend $750,000 for Kirk to show that they believe he can win, the SLF doesn't appear to be buying it.
The SLF is also not dropping anything in Arizona, though that's actually good news for John McCain. Polling has been infrequent here, but recent polls show McCain in strong shape. National Democrats hoped that Ann Kirkpatrick could unseat the longtime senator, but Team Blue never behaved like this was a top-tier contest. The DSCC and their allies at Senate Majority PAC left Arizona off their initial fall reservations list, and while they've since diverted money to Missouri and North Carolina, they still haven't committed resources to help Kirkpatrick. Early voting, which is popular in Arizona, begins on Oct. 12, and both parties' decision to leave this race alone indicates that they think McCain is in good shape.
The SLF also isn't sending any money to help Sen. Chuck Grassley in Iowa, which is not remotely surprising. While Democrats were happy when Patty Judge entered the race in March, no major outside groups have made any reservations in the Hawkeye State, and polls look very good for the incumbent.
● Polls:
● FL-Sen: Opinion Savvy: Marco Rubio (R-inc) 47, Patrick Murphy (D) 43 (47-46 Clinton) (Aug.: 45-43 Rubio)
● NH-Sen: MassINC: Maggie Hassan (D) 48, Kelly Ayotte (R-inc) 46 (42-35 Clinton) (Aug.: 50-40 Hassan)
● NV-Sen: Suffolk: Joe Heck (R) 38, Catherine Cortez Masto (D) 35 (44-38 Clinton) (Aug.: 37-37 Senate tie)
The bad news in Nevada is that Suffolk shows Catherine Cortez Masto running quite a bit behind Hillary Clinton. The good news is that Joe Heck isn't actually doing any better to Trump according to this poll. The polling averages also show a similar thing: According to HuffPost Pollster, Clinton and Donald Trump are tied 42-42, while Heck is up 43-39. If the undecideds are disproportionately Clinton voters, that could give Cortez Masto some room to grow.
Gubernatorial:
● MO-Gov: In an incendiary new ad, Republican Eric Greitens makes a series of heated accusations about his Democratic opponent, state Attorney General Chris Koster. As somber piano tones play, a series of mostly silhouetted still photos of women in poses that suggest deep sorrow rolls by on-screen. Nothing is said aloud, but instead various claims appear in text:
● Koster voted against protecting rape victims.
● Koster voted to force victims to pay for their own "rape kit" medical exams.
● Koster voted against making repeated domestic assault a Class A felony.
● Koster voted against protecting privacy of rape victims.
These sound like brutal charges, but as the St. Louis Post-Dispatch's Kevin McDermott explains, there's much less here than meets the eye. For starters, you'll note that none of the typical agate-type footnotes that provide a source for each of Greitens' claims ever appears. That's because, despite the way this ad frames things, all of these assertions are related to one single piece of legislation, not a series of bills.
Koster did vote against the law in question, HB583, and it contained many provisions. But there was never any vote to "force" rape victims to pay for rape kits; rather, the bill would have prohibited requiring victims to pay for their kits, so Greitens' attack is entirely mendacious. Koster says he opposed HB583 because of a provision it contained that would have granted automatic parole to people who had murdered their spouse or domestic partner if certain conditions were met. While the bill passed, some other lawmakers voted against it, including the GOP's nominee for lieutenant governor this year, and the current Republican state Senate president.
But this is a problem every legislator faces with every bill that contains a mix of good and bad provisions. Vote for it and you get pilloried for supporting the bad stuff; vote against it and you get slammed for opposing the good things. It's Greitens, though, who's on the defensive on the issue of sexual assault. He recently aired another ad that starred an Army veteran who posted offensive rape jokes on Facebook, and he also accepted a $1 million donation from Michael Goguen, a wealthy Silicon Valley venture capitalist who's been sued by a woman who said that Goguen made her his sex slave over a 13-year period.
Koster, by contrast, has strong law-and-order credentials thanks to his service as attorney general. Greitens is trying to knock those down, but with all polls—even Greitens' own—showing Koster leading, he hasn't had much luck so far.
● NH-Gov: MassInc takes their first look at this contest, and they give Republican Chris Sununu a 47-44 lead against Democrat Colin Van Ostern. This sample gives Hillary Clinton a 42-35 edge.
There haven't been many polls here, but the other data we have also shows Sununu running quite a bit ahead of Donald Trump. A week before, Monmouth released a poll showing Sununu up by a larger 49-43, while Clinton led 47-38. ARG had Sununu leading just 45-44 and Clinton up 46-42. Additionally, a poll of just the 1st District for the Democratic group House Majority PAC had Sununu leading 47-42 there, while Clinton had a 46-38 lead. (The 1st District takes up the more conservative half of New Hampshire.)
Sununu comes from a well-known New Hampshire GOP family, and we've speculated before that many voters who aren't familiar with either candidate are just choosing the name they know. Both parties recently began airing ads here and while the gubernatorial race won't attract anything close to the amount of attention that the presidential and Senate contests will, things could shift as both candidates become better known.
House:
● IA-03: Freshman Republican Rep. David Young is defending a Des Moines-area seat that backed Barack Obama 51-47, but all the polls we've seen look very good for the incumbent. In July, GOP pollster WPA Opinion Research gave Young a 45-32 edge over Democrat Jim Mowrer, an Iraq War veteran, while in early September, a poll from RABA Research (a new firm that's by run by a bipartisan pair of Iowa political operatives) for Simpson College had Young up 50-35. And in just the last week, a Young poll from the Tarrance Group and an independent poll from Loras College found Young ahead 52-37 and 46-36, respectively. At no point has Team Blue countered with better numbers.
After Mowrer convincingly won the Democratic primary over a wealthy self-funder back in June, we liked his chances enough to move this race from Lean Republican to Tossup. But Donald Trump's strength in Iowa has seriously changed the calculus for Democrats, which is why we also recently downgraded the contest in the 1st District from Lean Democratic to Tossup. Both parties each still have broadcast reservations worth more than $1 million on the books, so neither side is acting like this is over. But the polls show Young is in a good position, so Daily Kos Elections is changing our rating from Tossup to Lean Republican.
● IL-10: Democrat Brad Schneider is out with a Normington Petts poll giving him a 46-41 lead over Republican Rep. Bob Dold! The sample has Hillary Clinton leading Donald Trump 59-32 in this suburban Chicago seat. Obama won this district 58-41, and this is a very affluent and well-educated seat where Trump will likely have problems.
This is the first poll we've seen in a long time. Both sides are continuing to spend here, and the NRCC recently added another $500,000 to their reservation. While this area has favored Democrats in recent presidential elections, it's still friendly to the GOP downballot.
● IN-02: This 56-42 Romney seat in the South Bend area hasn't attracted much attention for most of the cycle, but that's changed recently. A few weeks ago, Politico reported that private GOP polls found GOP Rep. Jackie Walorski in an unexpectedly close race, though they didn't provide any actual numbers. But a subsequent move by the DCCC seemed to bear out that reporting: The committee added Lynn Coleman, a former South Bend police officer and mayoral aide, to their Emerging Races list, which is meant to act as a feeder program for its top-tier Red to Blue program.
This is very red turf and it would be a surprise if Walorski lost; indeed, no outside groups appear to have reserved any ad time here. Nevertheless, both sides are at least acting like they think an upset is possible. It's also worth noting that, while Walorski decisively won re-election two years ago during the 2014 GOP wave, she only won her first term 49-48 despite Mitt Romney's strength in the area. Indiana Democrats are also waging competitive campaigns for Senate and for governor, and if either Evan Bayh or John Gregg win, they'll probably at least come close in the 2nd District, which could give Coleman a boost. Daily Kos Elections is changing our rating from Safe Republican to Likely Republican.
● LA-04: The race to succeed Senate candidate John Fleming in this safely red Shreveport seat has been a pretty quiet affair so far, but one candidate seems to be emerging as the favorite of D.C. anti-establishment groups. On Thursday, the Senate Conservatives Fund endorsed state Rep. Mike Johnson. Johnson already had the backing of like-minded groups like FreedomWorks and Citizens United, though the Club for Growth, which tends to spend the most of all these organizations in GOP primaries, has yet to publicly take sides.
Johnson is a favorite of religious conservatives in the legislature, and he caused quite a stir last year. Just months after he took office after a special election, Johnson proposed the Marriage and Conscience Act, modeled off Indiana's infamous Religious Freedom Restoration Act. Johnson said his bill was designed to protect people opposed to same-sex marriage, while critics charged that it would allow companies to discriminate against married gay people.
Then-Gov. Bobby Jindal eagerly backed the bill, seeing it as a way to shore up his conservative credentials ahead of his presidential run. But after Indiana's RFRA led to nationwide boycotts, the GOP-dominated Louisiana legislature decided it was better not to ignite a similar firestorm. Johnson's bill died in committee, with only Johnson and one other Republican backing it. So it's pretty clear that Johnson would fit in very well with the nihilistic House Freedom Caucus if he gets to Congress.
In Louisiana, all the candidates compete on one November ballot and, if no one takes a majority of the vote, the top two contenders advance to a December runoff. At the end of June, Republicans Trey Baucum, a physician, and Shreveport City Councilor Oliver Jenkins had the most money, with Johnson far behind; two underfunded Republicans are also running. Attorney Marshall Jones is the only Democrat in the race, and it's likely (though not assured) he'll be able to consolidate enough of the Democratic vote to advance to a runoff. However, there's no clear frontrunner on the GOP side.
● MD-06: Obama carried this seat 55-43, and this affluent suburban D.C. district is far from Donald Trump country. However, Democratic Rep. John Delaney is taking his re-election campaign against Amie Hoeber, a former deputy undersecretary of the Army, seriously—seriously enough for us to be a little concerned. Hoeber's wealthy husband, Qualcomm co-founder Mark Epstein, has financed a super PAC called Maryland USA, and it recently launched a $750,000 buy against Delaney. More telling is that Delaney himself began running a negative spot against Hoeber, which safe incumbents usually don't do.
Still, it's tough to see Delaney, who is also very wealthy, losing with Donald Trump on the ballot. But thanks to her spouse, Hoeber at least has the resources to get her message out in this expensive district. And with Delaney treating this contest like it's at least somewhat competitive, so are we. Daily Kos Elections is changing our rating from Safe Democratic to Likely Democratic.
● MI-08: Republican Rep. Mike Bishop and the NRCC are out with a Public Opinion Strategies survey giving the incumbent a huge 53-34 lead over Democrat Suzanna Shkreli. Presidential numbers for this Lansing seat were not included; Romney won 51-48 here. Shkreli only entered the race in July after the previous Democratic candidate dropped out, and she started running her first ads after this poll was conducted. The DCCC has added Shkreli to their Red to Blue list for top candidates, but according to our ad reservations chart, they haven't committed any money to this seat.
● NV-03: The DCCC has released a survey from their in-house polling arm giving Democrat Jacky Rosen a 48-41 lead over Republican Danny Tarkanian. This sample gives Hillary Clinton a similar 46-38 edge in this suburban Las Vegas district. Back in June, just after Tarkanian won a nasty primary, the DCCC released a poll showing Rosen leading 40-34. Tarkanian took two months to respond, but in late August, he dropped his own poll showing him up 46-34.
This has not been an easy race to handicap. Obama only carried this seat 50-49 while he was winning statewide 52-46, and with most polls showing Donald Trump keeping Nevada close or even winning it, it seems unlikely that Clinton would be dramatically improving on Obama's performance in the 3rd. However, as we've noted before, this district is the type of well-off suburban turf that Trump has had trouble with in general, so it's possible that, even if Clinton can't match Obama's statewide showing, she could nevertheless improve in this district while doing worse elsewhere.
This DCCC poll was also conducted after the presidential debate, and the only other post-debate Nevada poll we've seen was a Suffolk poll showing Clinton leading statewide 44-38, her best showing here in a long time. Of course, we need a lot more data to say if Clinton is getting a boost in Nevada, and if so, if it will last into Election Day. But if Clinton actually does end up improving her numbers in the Silver State, that should boost Rosen here. Nevada surveys also underestimated Democrats in 2008, 2010, and 2012, so it's always possible Clinton is doing better in the Silver State than the polls show.
● WI-08: Democrats were excited when they landed Tom Nelson, the executive of Appleton's Outagamie County, and he's proven to be a good fundraiser. However, this contest hasn't looked particularly great for Team Blue over the last month. In late August, Republican Mike Gallagher, a retired Marine and a foreign policy advisor for Gov. Scott Walker's abortive presidential campaign, released a poll showing him leading Nelson by a wide 52-36 margin. Nelson's campaign conceded at the time that they likely were down, and no one has released any better numbers over the ensuing month.
The Cook Political Report's Dave Wasserman's recently wrote that Democrats agree that Gallagher is in the lead. Team Blue is certainly acting pessimistic here: The DCCC just canceled a week's worth of airtime, which was reportedly worth $240,000, or about a third of what the D-Trip had booked in total. Romney only carried this Green Bay seat 51-48, but this area has a smaller proportion of college graduates than the nation as a whole, which could give Donald Trump, and by extension Gallagher, a boost. Both parties are still planning to spend here, but they're both acting like Gallagher has the edge, so Daily Kos Elections is changing our rating from Tossup to Lean Republican.
Ad Roundup:
● FL-Sen: Senate Majority PAC says that GOP Sen. Marco Rubio has the worst attendance record of any Florida senator in the last half-century, but says that when he has bothered to do his job, he's voted to gut Social Security and education funding. Good tagline at the end: "Marco Rubio. It's bad when he misses work. It's worse when he shows up."
● IN-Sen: A bit similarly to the ad just above, Republican Todd Young accuses Evan Bayh of missing 92 percent of the hearings held by the Senate's Aging Committee, but that he voted to cut Medicare at Barack Obama's behest. This is a reference to one of the biggest Republican lies in recent years: that the Affordable Care Act somehow "cut" Medicare. It didn't reduce benefits one penny—it just reduced fees paid to doctors and hospitals. The ad also says Bayh voted to "hand illegals" (lovely) the same Social Security benefits "as Americans." This is also garbage. The DSCC, meanwhile, says that Young voted to make it more expensive to pay off college debt.
● NV-Sen: The NRSC says that "seven powerful law firms" made campaign contributions to Democrat Catherine Cortez Masto and that she in turn "gave contracts and deals worth over $18 million" to these firms. The story is told as though it's a fairy tale (the narrator even uses those words), which makes it seem entirely unserious.
● PA-Sen: For some reason, the NRSC has decided that a young-ish bike messenger should be the one to explain that Democrat Katie McGinty awarded a state contract to "some Spanish company," then received a spot on the board of a subsidiary of that firm. Why Bike Messenger Dude should be seen as a credible source of this information, we can't say.
● NC-Gov: Both GOP Gov. Pat McCrory and the RGA attack Democrat Roy Cooper for saying he "fixed" the problems at the state's crime lab, saying it's still plagued with problems.
● OR-Gov: In a surprisingly candid move, Democratic Gov. Kate Brown directly addresses the circumstances that made her governor, namely, the resignation of former Gov. John Kitzhaber last year. As newspaper headlines announcing Kitzhaber's departure appear on screen, a narrator calls the event "a breach of trust, a crisis for Oregon," but then goes on to say that Brown "stepped in, went to work, and got results" by bringing "both parties together to pass groundbreaking ethics reform."
● VT-Gov: With a bunch of matchbox cars wheeling around on-screen, the RGA says that Democrat Sue Minter has tried to raise various automotive taxes and fees.
● CO-03: Democrat Gail Schwartz says she will stop the sale of public lands for ranching, hunting, and fishing, something she says Republican Rep. Scott Tipton opposes.
● FL-13: People for Pinellas, which supports Republican Rep. David Jolly, has reserved $450,000 for this contest. Their first spot attacks Democrat Charlie Crist for running for office for three decades and running races as a Republican, an independent, and now a Democrat.
● IA-01: Democrat Monica Vernon attacks Republican Rep. Rod Blum for wanting to cut Social Security, privatize Medicare, and raise the retirement age to 70.
● ME-02: The NRCC attacks Democrat Emily Cain for supposedly supporting a bill to weigh public school children, particularly girls. This ad's framing misleadingly makes it seem like Cain wanted to fat-shame young girls, rather than collect data on obesity. It of course leaves out key information that weights would have been confidential, and that parents could have opted out had they chosen to do so.
● MN-02: Democrat Angie Craig uses damningly offensive quotes from Republican Jason Lewis, a Trump-esque conservative who used to be a former radio host, to paint him as someone unfit to represent Minnesota.
● MN-03: Democrat Terri Bonoff kayaks down the Mississippi River and talks about the 2007 Interstate 35 bridge collapse, using it to highlight her support for funding transportation projects, which Congress routinely neglects.
● NE-02: Democrat Brad Ashford touts his bipartisanship and independence in this Republican-leaning district. He claims he "stood up to the Obama administration, opposing closing [Guantanamo Bay]" and will make sure national security is a top priority.
● NY-03: The NRCC hits Democrat Tom Suozzi over raising taxes during his tenure as Nassau County executive and before that as Glen Cove mayor, with a context-free clip of Suozzi of saying, "I raised property taxes my first year in office as county executive by a pretty big chunk." The NRCC conveniently ignores that Suozzi became county executive in 2002 after the county was struggling financially and had recently received a state bailout, providing crucial context for a nearly 20 percent property tax hike. The state again had to take over the county's finances under Suozzi's Republican successor, something the NRCC also left out.
● TX-23: Democratic ex-Rep. Pete Gallego touts his bipartisanship from his one term in Congress, saying he will fight for policies that help the middle class in this relatively lower-income, but conservative-leaning seat.
● VA-10: Democrat LuAnn Bennett attacks Republican Rep. Barbara Comstock for standing with Trump, playing clips of Trump stating positions like overturning Roe v. Wade and defunding Planned Parenthood, followed by Comstock supporting the same.
The Daily Kos Elections Morning Digest is compiled by David Nir, Jeff Singer, and Stephen Wolf, with additional contributions from David Jarman, Steve Singiser, Daniel Donner, and James Lambert.