A new CBS poll of 4500 likely voters, conducted Oct. 28-29 in the battleground states of AZ, CO, FL, GA, IA, MI, NC, NH, NV, OH, PA, VA, and WI.
The summary:
- Weighted ideology percentages: 24% liberal, 42% moderate, 34% conservative
- 79% (75% moderates) have heard something about the latest Comey email affair.
- 23% (22% of moderates) already voted. 48% won’t switch anyway (44% of moderates). 18% (18% of moderates) less likely to vote for Clinton, 6% more likely, 5% want to see what’s in the emails before they have an opinion [rational people? Gosh.]
- 45% think they email issue is worse than anything that Trump does (35% of moderates), 48% (41% of moderates) expect them to have new damaging information about Clinton.
- Conservatives and liberals are expectedly polarized.
My take: right now 18% of moderates (8% of the total) say they will be less likely to vote for Clinton. I think that these are people who identify as moderates, but wouldn’t vote for Clinton anyway. These Clinton-disliking moderates, together with the conservatives, add up to 42% of the total.
Edit: The above is incorrect. I was adding total conservatives to right-leaning moderates who already voted. More correctly: 18% of moderates who haven’t voted translates to 23% of all moderates, or 10% of the total, which makes 44% of the total likely voters conservatives or right-leaning moderates. The ideology percentages also change from question to question.
All in all, there’s nothing which suggests a game-changer. In the next few days the (minor) effect of this could fizzle out, unless more information comes out, or unless public opinion turns against Comey and toward Clinton.
Edit: 45% of the total think that the email issue in general is worse than any fault of Trump’s. 48% of the total think that the new emails probably have worse information. I’d read it as 45% certain trump voters, plus 3% more wavering. These wouldn’t be surprising numbers even without this affair going on.