Do we dare to consider: it might be worse than we think? I am a professional analyst and reading the details of the polls leading up to this election I saw national polling samples with 38% Dem vs 28% Repub. That’s +10 points, Obama got +7 and +6 so why poll for +10? Exit polls showed 37% Dem with 33% Repub. Are we deceiving ourselves? What if its not the candidate? What if its not the party?
Many on Kos think we just need the right candidate, the right campaign, the right tactical adjustment. But what if we just lost to a clown who had endorsements from racists, vastly less money, no experience, no organization, and the MSM roundly denouncing him because the American people actually rejected liberal ideas they don’t believe work for them.
Why did 200+ counties that voted twice for Obama vote for Trump? They were more sexist than racist? Is insulting voters really the best we can do? Is that going to attract them back? Forget whether you believe people are biased and bigoted — is that REALLY why they voted for Obama and against Hillary? What if we believe that voters actually decided on the issues?
What if we admit the ACA actually cost millions of people MORE for their insurance and delivered less than promised? What if a lot of people who needed the “shovel ready” jobs actually didn’t get them? Jobs numerically increased during Obama’s terms, but the population of working age people increased faster. The labor force participation rate (U6) is 4% worse than when he started so while the U3 improved a lot from Bush’s recession there are actually still 15 million more people NOT working than 2008. Reality check — people not working don’t care how the numbers are spun they still don’t get paid.
What if the positive effects of Obama’s policies now get credited to Trump? What if, because of the timing, Trump now leads the noticeable end of the stagnate growth into a boom? He will get credit. Threats of tariffs won’t magically tank the economy in two years. Actually tariffs won’t do it either unless they are HUGE and widely applied. Trump may have unified government for 4 years or more.
What if his approach raises prices on imports and domestic wages (it will)? What if people LIKE this? What if energy prices remain low because of deregulating fossil fuel production and transport? What if people LIKE low energy prices? Have you considered that this may be THE END of the Democratic Party?
Republicans have TOTAL control of Federal government. Democrats have control of only 5 states, while Republicans have 33 states. All of the courts will be lost before there is a switch. The local trend precedes the national. It WILL get worse. Who will run for national office when all the people with experience in government are Republicans? What will the Democrats campaign on if the economy does well and they have no claim on that success? You think jobs won’t come back? You think Trump is sure to fail? Don’t be a fool like those who said he could not win. What if lower corporate taxes actually DO cause trillions in reinvestment? What if tariffs actually DO bring jobs back to the Rust belt?
Do you think the so-called genius analysts know what winning short a trade war really does? They have not seen one in their lifetimes. For 60 years labor has been begging Dems to fight for unions, but all they get is minimum wage laws. Don’t you know any history? Labor is the base of Progressivism. That is the PRIMARY appeal and power base on which everything else is built. Do you realize what will happen when Trump actually implements what they wanted? It means 70% of the white vote locked up and no Democrat wins a national election EVER. Do you really think the POLICY of protecting wages with tariffs doesn’t work? Why? The Clintons switched to embracing multi-national corporations with NAFTA. Both parties have been anti-labor for decades in official position and practice. Now Republicans will take up the cause of labor.
How can we take it back? There will be nothing of substance to offer people who are not suffering. Were you hoping Trump would get into wars because of his temper? (hint: it was for the campaign “reality” show) Don’t believe that propaganda; do you really believe he negotiates his business deals by insults?. Trump opposed all the recent foreign wars. He will negotiate with dictators happily for trade advantages. Obama started with wars in Iraq and Afghanistan. During his term wars started in Libya, Syria, Egypt, Yemen, and Ukraine. Obama stood idealistically on principle so he got into fights with dictators. Trump won’t get bogged down in such wars — he will just let Putin and Assad win in exchange for a trade agreement. His basic immorality makes the solution simple. Most Americans WILL LIKE IT.
Do you think they will all see the light as climate change ravages our shores? Not a chance. Temperatures will go up one or two degrees in the next fifty years. People won’t even notice. Think about it. Do you REALLY care if it is one degree warmer? Does that affect YOUR LIFE, not a hypothetical penguin or polar bear or coral somewhere on the other side of the planet? Very few are willing to vote for higher electricity bills or taxes out of fear that an island somewhere will lose some beachfront in the pacific. It’s just REALITY. The morality doesn’t matter — That’s NOT a compelling argument. And if you say the world will be unlivable — that’s not a believable argument. I’ve seen it a couple degrees warmer. It was a couple degrees warmer yesterday and I didn’t die. Very few people in those battleground states we just lost actually believe in idea that climate change will kill us. It will take a lot more than expert testimony, or social media persecution, or a degree or two temperature change to change their minds. Anthropogenic climate change is settled science on the coasts, but literally LAUGHED AT, like actual LOL, in the Midwest anywhere but college campuses.
It’s worse than we think! America has rejected liberal ideology, not just a candidate. Look at the state governments! 66% are in TOTAL republican control. They have constitutional amendment levels of support. Much has been made of the “popular vote” — No! Don’t be deceived that’s just California and a lot of those votes will no longer be counted after Trump implements “Voter ID” laws.
We have been assuming demographic inevitability — but what if the Latino immigrants NEVER do get the vote? What if those that are voting now (ie CA and NM) lose it? That demographic situation never transpires. The fact is minorities are still minorities 8% black 11% Hispanic for this election and that is a LOSING voting block. Democrats CANNOT WIN without the white blue-collar votes and I see so many here STILL failing to recognize this reality.
For a century Repubs have ceded control of cities. But now that’s all we have — Look at the map! and Trump is not going to take it for granted. Did you laugh when Trump announced? Did you laugh when he was nominated? Will you laugh at his promise (threat?) to take the inner city votes next election? Will you laugh at his promise (threat?) to take larger shares of the minority communities? They like jobs too. Do you REALLY believe that the pro-labor trade policies Democrats abandoned in favor of multi-national corporations donations do not produce high wages jobs? Do you really believe that? We sold out. We failed to deliver. If Trump does he will lock up those votes permanently.
It’s worse than we think. We are going to be a permanent minority party. The progress on social issues will be swept away. We are going to lose control of the education system, the courts, and the next generation and that will be it. 100 years of progress is going down the drain. This was not just another election this was the last chance and it’s over now. It’s time to re-think the entire approach. We need better ideas, not just a better slogan, party organization, or candidate.