Leading Off:
● KS-Gov: Most Kansas Republicans will be happy to see GOP Gov. Sam Brownback depart in two years when he's termed out of office, thanks to the disastrous "real live experiment"—more like a vivisection—that Brownback conducted on the state. Brownback's mad scientist routine involved massive tax breaks that led to huge revenue shortfalls, giant cuts in education funding, and slowing income growth—all of which proved extraordinarily unpopular. In fact, Brownback became so detested that he nearly lost re-election (in 2014! in a dark-red state!), and his conservative allies in the legislature got bushwhacked by more moderate Republicans in primaries held earlier this year.
So who will pick up the pieces? There are lots of Republicans who could try—and sadly, it'll almost certainly be another Republican. Rep. Lynn Jenkins, who just won a fifth term in the House, is one of the first prominent names to publicly consider a bid, saying she's "always going to look at" "an opportunity to serve back home." Jenkins decided not to seek a third term as a member of her caucus' leadership team this week, so that would certainly help free her up for a gubernatorial run.
But Jenkins' past also makes her a card-carrying member of the GOP establishment, and she'd likely face opposition from more conservative and/or Trump-aligned candidates. The AP lists a long array of other potential Republicans, including Reps. Mike Pompeo and Kevin Yoder; Lt. Gov. Jeff Colyer; state Attorney General Derek Schmidt; state Treasurer Ron Estes; state Senate President Susan Wagle; and wealthy oilman Wink Hartman, who unsuccessfully ran for Congress in 2010.
The same piece also describes former state House Minority Leader Paul Davis, who lost to Brownback 50-46 two years ago, as the only Democrat who is "mentioned consistently as a potential candidate." That makes sense, given how thin Team Blue's bench is in the Sunflower State. But Davis was only able to make that race as close as he did because of the extraordinary revulsion toward Brownback that had already set in among the electorate. A less unappealing opponent would very likely put this seat out of play for Democrats.
Senate:
● LA-Sen: Months ago, Republican John Kennedy sent millions of dollars from his state campaign account to the group Ending Spending, making them his de facto allied super PAC. So it's none too surprising that they're up with a $500,000 ad campaign for the Dec. 10 runoff. Their spot argues that "John Kennedy and Donald Trump will move Louisiana forward," and ties Democrat Foster Campbell to Obamacare.
Politico also reports that the NRSC will do a coordinated buy with Kennedy, which is a little more interesting. The Louisiana GOP also recently said that the NRSC was opening up 10 offices across the state in preparation for the runoff. So far, the NRSC doesn't appear to be spending serious money on ads, but they're at least not acting like this seat is completely locked up. National Democrats haven't shown any public interest in spending on Campbell in a state that Trump carried 58-38.
● VA-Sen: Though he's just coming his unsuccessful bid for vice president, it sure sounds like Democratic Sen. Tim Kaine plans to seek re-election in 2018. In a new interview with the Richmond Times-Dispatch, Kaine said he hoped to emulate the career of former Virginia Sen. John Warner, a Republican who served in the Senate for 30 years, saying, "I want to run, and I want to serve in the Senate for a long time." He also posed for a photo with a "Kaine 2018" bumper sticker. It's not clear to us whether he said the simple magic words of, "I am running," and you know we're sticklers. But it would be pretty startling if he didn't try for a second term.
Back when the Clinton-Kaine ticket looked poised for victory, Republicans and Democrats alike started chattering about who might succeed Virginia's junior senator. (Democratic Gov. Terry McAuliffe would have appointed a replacement, and a special election would have followed in 2017, with an election for a full term at the end of Kaine's term in 2018.) Plenty of names popped up on the Republican side, but the top pick of the GOP establishment would almost certainly be Rep. Barbara Comstock, who just won a very tough re-election even as Trump badly lost in Northern Virginia. (Preliminary numbers show Clinton carried Comstock's 10th District 52-42, after Mitt Romney won it 51-49.)
Of course, what the GOP establishment wants, it often fails to get. (See: Trump, Donald.) A conservative true believer like former state Attorney General Ken Cuccinelli, who lost to McAuliffe in 2013, could threaten the chances for a Comstock-type candidate to emerge with the nomination. But Cuccinelli tried to thwart Trump's nomination at the RNC, and we saw how Ted Cruz's standing with fellow Republicans cratered after he refused to endorse Trump at the convention. That could leave an opening for an explicitly pro-Trump candidate, but who exactly that might be, we can't yet say.
● WI-Sen: With GOP Gov. Scott Walker ruling out a bid against Democratic Sen. Tammy Baldwin in 2018, that opens up the field of potential Republican challengers. Rich guy Eric Hovde, a real estate developer worth at least $50 million (and perhaps much more), confirmed to the Associated Press that he is considering a bid. Hovde told them, "I still haven't figured out" whether he wants to run and says he won't decide for another six to nine months.
Hovde ran for this seat once before. In 2012, Hovde narrowly lost the GOP primary 34-41 to ex-Gov. Tommy Thompson, who went on to lose to Baldwin 51-46. He obviously doesn't have a political career to worry about, nor would money be a concern for him (he self-funded almost $6 million in his last campaign).
Reporter Scott Bauer of WTMJ-TV in Milwaukee also says that Rep. Sean Duffy along with Hovde is "mentioned as the most likely possible candidates," though he doesn't cite any sources (beyond the Great Mentioner himself). Duffy was best-known as a star of MTV's pioneering reality show "The Real World" before getting elected to Congress in 2010. Since then, he's grown tight with Paul Ryan (an Atlantic piece last year called Duffy "one of Ryan's closest friends in the House"), so he might not want to trade his privileged position for a difficult Senate bid. Duffy did not return Bauer's call for a comment.
Gubernatorial:
● ID-Gov: GOP Rep. Raul Labrador, one of the main tea party bomb throwers in Congress, flirted with a primary bid against Gov. Butch Otter in 2013, but ultimately decided to pass. Otter is retiring in 2018, and Labrador is once again making noises about running for his seat. This week, Labrador told local radio host Bill Colley that he is considering.
Two other Republicans have already entered the race. Lt. Gov. Brad Little kicked off his campaign in June, while ex-state Sen. Russ Fulcher announced two months later. Fulcher ran against Otter in 2014 and lost by a surprisingly close 51-44 margin. However, he may have a tough time holding onto his old supporters if Labrador jumps in. Idaho has tons of other Republicans who could run, and state Attorney General Lawrence Wasden in particular has been mentioned as a possible candidate, though he doesn't appear to have publicly expressed interest yet. Idaho is one of the reddest states in the nation, and Democrats don't have much of a bench here.
● IL-Gov: We've got some more names to add to the list of potential Democratic challengers to GOP Gov. Bruce Rauner in 2018. Rep. Robin Kelly, who won an upset special election for a Chicago-area House seat in 2013, says she "love[s]" serving in Congress but "would not rule anything out" as far as a bid for higher office is concerned. Kelly had considered a run for Senate last year but deferred to fellow Rep. Tammy Duckworth, who unseated GOP Sen. Mark Kirk earlier this month.
Meanwhile, the Chicago Tribune mentions state Treasurer Michael Frerichs and state Sen. Daniel Biss and says both "may" be considering bids, but the sourcing seems very thin.
● MA-Gov: Last week, Newton Mayor Setti Warren announced that he wouldn't seek re-election in 2017. Warren didn't say anything about his future plans, but speculation immediately began that he was preparing to challenge Republican Gov. Charlie Baker. While Warren still hasn't confirmed that he's thinking about facing Baker, he just hired John Walsh, a former state party chair and close ally of ex-Gov. Deval Patrick, to serve as an advisor. Warren almost certainly wouldn't be doing this if he wasn't seriously thinking about running for office in the near future.
Baker hasn't announced if he'll run for a second term in 2018, though it would be a huge surprise if he didn't. Massachusetts is a solidly blue state, but Baker has posted strong approval numbers during the first half of his term. Still, there are plenty of Democrats who could challenge Baker if they think he's beatable. The Boston Globe reports that pharmaceutical executive Joe Avellone and outgoing state Sen. Dan Wolf are "believed to be weighing a run," though neither has publicly expressed interest.
Both men ran in 2014, though neither made it to the primary. Avellone's bid ended at the state convention after he failed to get the support of 15 percent of the delegates, the bare minimum candidates need to advance to the primary. Wolf, the founder of Cape Air, dropped out of the race after the State Ethics Commission ruled him ineligible to run due to contracts his company had with the state. The commission eventually created an exemption for people in that sort of situation, so Wolf is free to run if he chooses to.
Several other Democrats have been mentioned as possible candidates, and we rounded them up recently. Politico also name-drops Somerville Mayor Joe Curtatone (who spent a few months mulling a bid in 2013 but didn't get in), Salem Mayor Kim Driscoll, and Rep. Joe Kennedy III. Kennedy, a grandson of Robert F. Kennedy, would almost certainly be one of the strongest possible Democratic contenders owing both to his family name and connections, and indeed, he tied Baker in a hypothetical matchup in September as the same poll showed other possible Democrats losing. However, Kennedy hasn't given any indication that he's at all interested, and he seems far more likely to run for the Senate when either Elizabeth Warren or Ed Markey retire.
● MI-Gov: GOP Gov. Rick Snyder is term-limited in 2018, and at least two if not three notable Michigan Republicans have been sizing up bids to succeed him for some time. The most aggressive has been state Attorney General Bill Schuette, though earlier this year, he insisted on putting off any further questions until after Election Day. Both he and Lt. Gov. Brian Calley, another potential contender, spent time trying to charm delegates at the RNC earlier this year, though Calley's been less forthcoming about his interest level.
A third alternative, state Senate Majority Leader Arlan Meekhof, also held a reception at the convention, but Kathleen Gray of the Detroit Free Press "hasn't been raising the money or positioning himself with a power base" that would signal a possible run for higher office. And there are still other potential candidates, such as outgoing Rep. Candice Miller, who earlier this month won a heated contest for Macomb County public works commissioner.
But all of these options are pretty establishment-flavored, which as per usual in GOP primaries leaves open the possibility of a hostile takeover by an outsider candidate.
● MN-Gov: Democratic Gov. Mark Dayton made it clear long ago that he wouldn't seek a third term in 2018, and on Thursday, we got our first declared Democratic candidate. State Rep. Erin Murphy, who served as majority leader after Team Blue took the chamber in 2012 and deputy minority leader after they lost it in 2014, announced she would run. Murphy is also a former executive director of the Minnesota nurses union.
There are plenty of other Democrats who could run. Attorney General Lori Swanson didn't rule out a bid this week. St. Paul Mayor Chris Coleman's spokesperson also confirmed back in September that he was interested; Coleman is up for re-election in 2017, so he has an incentive to decide sooner rather than later what he's going to do. In October, the Mankato Free Press also mentioned several other possible Democratic candidates: Rep. Tim Walz (who narrowly won re-election this month as Trump was decisively carrying his seat); Lt. Gov. Tina Smith; outgoing state House Minority Leader Paul Thissen; ex-Minneapolis Mayor R.T. Rybak, who ran for this seat in 2010; and state Auditor Rebecca Otto.
Team Red has a smaller bench in the Land of 10,000 Lakes. However, Republicans have done well in gubernatorial races in the past, and Hillary Clinton only narrowly carried Minnesota last week. The Mankato Free Press mentioned state House Speaker Kurt Daudt, state Rep. Jenifer Loon, and state Sen. Julie Rosen as possible candidates. The GOP picked up seats this year under Daudt, and the Star Tribune suggested that this success could strengthen his position in a GOP race if he chooses to run.
Minnesota's unique convention system makes it tough to handicap both sides' primaries. The state party conventions, which are dominated by activists and party insiders, pick who earns the party's endorsement. The party endorsement isn't at all the same thing as the party's nomination, but many activists and political figures on both parties take it very seriously, and plenty of candidates drop out of the race if they don't earn the endorsement. Indeed, Murphy announced on Thursday that she wouldn't continue on to the primary if she didn't win the state convention endorsement.
● RI-Gov: While Rhode Island is a very blue state, Democratic Gov. Gina Raimondo cannot take her re-election for granted in 2018. The Ocean State has been willing to elect GOP governors in the past, and the few polls there are give Raimondo a poor approval rating. Go Local Prov also wrote earlier this month that private Democratic polls also show Raimondo's negatives "in the low-to-mid 60 percent range."
Raimondo defeated Cranston Mayor Allan Fung 41-36 during the 2014 GOP wave, with the late Robert Healey taking 21 percent as the nominee of the Moderate (or "Cool Moose") Party. Last week, Fung won re-election with 68 percent of the vote, and he refused to rule out running for governor again during his campaign. Last year, Fung apologized to residents after the state police published a report arguing that the mayor's "political interference and influence" were partially responsible for the local police department's problems, but the story doesn't appear to have damaged Fung much at home. Another alum of the 2014 race is also flirting with a bid. Businessman Ken Block, who lost the GOP primary to Fung 55-45, recently said he was considering another run.
The Daily Kos Elections Morning Digest is compiled by David Nir, Jeff Singer, and Stephen Wolf, with additional contributions from David Jarman, Steve Singiser, Daniel Donner, and James Lambert.