The polls have turned in Ohio. She leads in the latest Ipsos/Reuters Ohio poll by 2%, the new Columbus Dispatch poll gives Hillary a 1% lead, the CBS battleground state poll shows a 1% Trump lead. Even the right wing pollster Remington/Axiom, which is a conservative consulting firm that conducted all of Ted Cruz’ primary polls (and counts as clients only conservatives like Mike Huckabee and Rick Perry) found an extremely tight race, a 1% Trump lead. Things are back to even in the state, which means Hillary has major momentum because Ohio looked basically lost a couple of weeks ago. Not any longer.
Hillary was with LeBron James in Cleveland, OH today. She was in Cleveland on Friday as well, that rally featured Beyonce and JayZ. Ohio is tipping to Hillary, folks. I can feel it.
Today’s rally in Cleveland, OH with LeBron:
So, how is early voting going?
TargetSmart/William and Mary polled it.
Clinton Goes Into Election Day With Lead Among Early Voters
The poll included a sample of Ohio voters who have already participated via either absentee voting or early in-person voting, based on reporting from the Ohio Secretary of State that is tracked on TargetSmart’s voter file. Among these early voters, the survey finds Clinton with a 7-point lead over Trump, 48 to 41 percent.
“Our poll suggests that Secretary Clinton has banked substantially more votes ahead of the election than Trump. Moreover, as we saw in our recent research in Florida among early voters, a significant number of Republicans have already crossed over to support Clinton,” said TargetSmart pollster Ben Lazarus.
So, a 7% lead among early voters and a significant Republican cross over vote found.
The survey shows Clinton captured the support of 10 percent of self-described Republicans who voted early, while 81 percent voted for Trump. In contrast, Trump received the support of 4 percent of self-described Democrats who participated early, with 90 percent voting for Clinton.
Clinton is also bolstered by a favorable gender gap among early voters; she holds a 23-point advantage over Trump among early voting women (55 to 32 percent) while Trump’s edge among early voting men is just 14-points (53 to 39 percent). Notably, Clinton also banked substantial support in the early voting window among white women, topping Trump 49 to 37 percent among them, and making the contest among early voting whites incredibly competitive; 43 percent for Clinton to 46 percent for Trump. This poll also shows Clinton carrying 81 percent of Ohio’s non-white early vote, with 10 percent backing Trump.
So, with early voters Hillary got 10% of Republicans to cross over, while Trump got 4% of Democrats to go his way.
White women gave Hillary a boost, voting for Hillary 49% to 37% in the early going, a 12% advantage for Hillary on just the white women vote.
This poll shows a 3% overall lead for Trump when all respondents are included, but that is within the margin of error, but more importantly, she has already banked a 7% lead in the early vote, and in Ohio it looks like Hillary is coming on with a vengeance in the late going, with major GOTV rallies that will have an effect on actual voting day.
Tom Bonier was just on Lawrence O’Donnell’s show explaining that they found that 57% of early voters so far have been women, 43% have been men. That is a significant finding, putting Ohio’s early women vote in its participation number above any other state early voting numbers are available for.
While Ohio does not have a lot of Hispanics to vote in this election, and with Hispanics driving the massive voter turnouts in states like Florida, Nevada, Colorado, New Mexico, it will indeed be women, WOMEN of all races, creeds and education levels, that will be winning Ohio for Hillary on Tuesday.
I strongly believe now that Hillary is on pace to win Ohio on Tuesday.
I had kind of resigned myself to seeing Ohio lost along with Iowa, and while I think that Iowa is probably not going to happen for us (despite that one overshadowed poll showing Hillary ahead by 1% in Iowa yesterday) I believe Ohio will be part of a tremendous celebration on Tuesday. The early voting looks good, women turn out in huge numbers, in the early vote they have amassed a 14% margin over men participating — 57% to 43%. No other early voting state has shown such a big margin between women and men participating in the early voting process.
WOMEN, gotta love em. Saving men’s asses yet again, as they’ve done since…. forever. :-)
Oh, and, by the way, Donald: NASTY WOMEN VOTE!