America’s historic presidential election between Hillary Clinton and Donald Trump has rightly dominated the headlines, but voters will weigh in on crucial battles for state legislatures across the country, with the potential for far-reaching policy and political consequences. After their 2014 wave, Republicans dominate state legislatures at a rate not seen since the Civil War and control 69 legislative chambers to the Democrats’ 30. That leaves Democrats with little place to go but up.
As shown in the map at the top of this post, where each state is rendered the same size, 86 of the country’s 99 state legislative chambers hold elections for some or all of their seats in 2016. Widespread gerrymandering severely limits the possibility of parties losing control over many chambers, mostly to the benefit of Republicans. However, 18 legislative chambers could potentially change hands this year, with Democrats defending five of those and Republicans the other 13.
We previously wrote about some of Democrats’ best pickup opportunities, examining key seats in select chambers. In this post, we’ll take a look at the current partisan makeup of all 18 competitive chambers and what it would take for each party to flip them.
Note that these figures assign a handful of vacant seats to the party that last held them. All seats in each chamber are up for election in 2016 unless otherwise specified. In some chambers with an even number of seats and no external figure who can break ties (such as a lieutenant governor), it’s also possible to create a deadlock when the parties split the seats equally. In such cases, some sort of power-sharing agreement usually results.
Arizona: Republicans hold the state Senate with an 18-12 majority, meaning Democrats need to gain three seats to force a deadlock—the state has no lieutenant governor to break ties—or four to govern outright.
Colorado: Republicans have an 18-17 state Senate majority, so Democrats just need to gain one seat for control. Only half of the chamber is elected every two years.
Iowa: Democrats hold 26 state Senate seats, Republicans have 23, and there is one Republican-turned-Libertarian, while only half of the chamber is up every two years. Republicans need just a one-seat gain for their lieutenant governor to break ties, or two seats for an outright majority, assuming the Libertarian member sides with them instead of the Democrats. In the state House, Republicans hold a 57-43 majority, requiring Democrats to gain seven to deadlock the chamber and eight to control it.
Kentucky: Democrats control the state House 53-47, meaning Republicans must gain three seats to deadlock it or four to control it, although there is a strong possibility that some conservative Democrats might switch parties if Team Blue loses more seats. (Several have already.)
Maine: Republicans govern the state Senate with a 20-15 majority, meaning Democrats need to gain three seats to assume control. Meanwhile, Democrats run the House with 78 seats, Republicans have 69, and independents have four. Democrats can lose no more than two seats and still keep their majority, while Republicans would need to gain seven to assume control, assuming they cannot sway any independents.
Michigan: Republicans hold the state House with a 63-47 majority. Democrats would need to gain 8 seats to produce a deadlock and 9 to take power themselves.
Minnesota: Democrats hold the state Senate 39-28, requiring Republicans to gain six seats to win power. The state House has a Republican majority of 73-61, and Democrats would need to gain six seats to create a deadlock or seven to win outright control.
Nevada: Republicans maintain an 11-10 state Senate majority, meaning Democrats only need to gain one seat to assume power. Only half of the seats are up each two years. The state Assembly has a majority of 24 Republican seats, 17 Democratic ones, and one Republican-turned-Libertarian. Democrats need to gain four seats to produce a deadlock and five for a majority.
New Hampshire: Republicans control the state Senate 14-10, and Democrats would need to either gain two seats to force a deadlock, since New Hampshire has no lieutenant governor to break ties, or three for an outright majority. The state House is the nation’s largest and has a Republican majority of 237 seats, with 161 Democrats, one independent, and one Republican-turned-Libertarian. Democrats would need to gain 39 seats to produce a deadlock and 40 for an outright majority.
New Mexico: Republicans govern the state House 37-33, meaning Democrats need to gain two seats to create a deadlock or three for a majority.
New York: New York’s state Senate has a messy partisan breakdown. Republicans hold 31 seats, but one Democrat caucuses with them to give them a bare 32-seat majority. Five other Democrats form the Independent Democratic Coalition and support the Republican-led governing coalition, while the remaining 26 Democrats sit in the minority. Mainstream Democrats would need to gain six seats for an outright majority or somehow cut a deal with the renegade Democrats to rejoin the fold.
Washington: Republicans control the state Senate with 25 seats plus the support of one renegade Democrat, while mainstream Democrats hold 23, meaning the regular Democratic caucus would need to add two members for a majority. Only half the seats are up every two years. Democrats also control the state House 50-48, so Republicans need to gain just one seat to produce a deadlock or two for a majority.