Mitch McConnell is having to explain that "You can't just snap your fingers and go from where we are today to where we're headed," on Obamacare repeal to justify why he is going to be trying out a "repeal and delay" tactic. That new plan is to repeal the law right away, but delay the actual end of the law until a miracle happens and Republicans have a replacement plan. And create another “cliff” in three years’ time in which health care for millions is threatened unless Democrats help. But that is going to require help from Democrats, help that they must not provide.
By creating some kind of self-imposed health care do-or-die moment at the end of 2019 or early in 2020, Republicans are either making a strategic calculation that their Senate gains in 2018 will be such that they will have an easier chance of passing a replacement bill in the Senate or they are hoping that Democrats will have to shoulder the blame if GOP as the majority party can't make good on its replacement promise.
"It's partly a scam and a sham," [Norm] Ornstein, [a congressional scholar at the American Enterprise Institute] said. "They know they cannot do this with a Senate filibuster and the limitations of reconciliation and that it's likely that they cannot get every Republican ... they can do the same thing with health care that they tried with the debt ceiling. Basically, 'you better cooperate with us or we kill the hostages.'"
Over the last week, Republicans have started floating that new messaging strategy.
During a pen and pad with reporters on Tuesday, House Majority Leader Kevin McCarthy (R-CA) hinted that he was looking for a way to get Dems to help once Obamacare was repealed.
"My personal belief and nothing has been decided yet. I would [move through] and repeal and then go to work on replacing," McCarthy said. "I think once it is repealed you will have, hopefully, fewer people playing politics."
In other words, Democrats won't want to let millions of people fall into the uninsured abyss again, and will save Republicans' bacon and working with them to prevent it. They can't do that this time. They have to let Republicans know that when they break it, they will be on their own and there won't be any Democrats around to share the blame in it. Sen. Sherrod Brown (D-OH) has it right: "They've used these talking points for 10 years and they are regrouping .[…] We're going to name victims. The young women who are going to lose their birth control coverage ... How about the 600,000 Ohioans who are going to lose their health care? How about the seniors who are going to pay more for their drugs. We are going to name names when they go after these people." And make sure that everyone knows it's Republicans who did this.
Why? It's pretty simple. If no Democrats step up to help them undo Obamacare (looking at you, Sen. Joe Manchin) it makes it harder for Mitch McConnell to get every Republican on board behind pulling the rug out from under the law. The law and the huge number of people it has benefitted, not to mention the health insurance industry, hospitals and other providers who have spent the last decade reengineering their systems. There's going to be a lot of pressure coming at Republicans from all directions to not do their worst. Democrats have got to let them do their worse. And take the blame for it.