On Wednesday, a spokesperson for Donald Trump confirmed that Iowa GOP Gov. Terry Branstad had accepted Trump’s nomination to serve as ambassador to China. Branstad is the longest-serving governor in American history: Branstad was Iowa’s chief executive from 1983 to 1999, and he returned to the governor’s office in 2011. Branstad toyed with running for a seventh term in 2018, but if he’s confirmed by the Senate, Lt. Gov. Kim Reynolds will assume the governorship heading into the new cycle; Reynolds would also become Iowa’s first female governor.
A number of Republicans including Reynolds, Secretary of Agriculture Bill Northey, and Cedar Rapids Mayor Ron Corbett, were considering running for what would have been an open seat if Branstad had just retired. But if Reynolds becomes governor and runs for a full term in 2018, other prospective GOP candidates will need to think long and hard if they want to challenge an incumbent in a primary. Just before Branstad’s nomination was publicly announced, Corbett acknowledged to the Des Moines Register that Reynolds “was always going to have an advantage in an open primary with his support, and I’m sure that advantage is enhanced if ultimately she’s the incumbent,” though he didn’t explicitly rule out running against her.
However, one familiar Iowa Republican is making noises about running for governor even if he has to get past Reynolds. Rep. Steve King, who was one of the more openly-racist Republicans in national politics before Trump parachuted in, told The Hill on Wednesday, “The thought is in my mind. Immediately, it locks in there. But I don't want to send any message that I'm making plans actively.” King spent months flirting with a possible Senate bid in 2013 only to stay put, and apparently, he’s got another Hamlet act or two in him.
The Hawkeye State has long been one of America’s premier swing states, but Trump carried it by a punishing 51-42 margin last month. Democrats will want to target the untested Reynolds, but not many prominent politicians have expressed interest in running yet. Last month, ex-Gov. Tom Vilsack, who is leaving the Department of Agriculture in January, said that he had “on no plans to run again,” which is not a no. Vilsack recently reiterated that, while he doesn’t think he’ll run for office ever again, he’s still not closing the door on the idea completely.