If Republicans take the easy way to Obamacare repeal and reuse the same budget reconciliation approach they employed in early 2016, they'll more than double the number of children who are uninsured. That's according to a new study from the Urban Institute reported by the Center on Budget and Policy Priorities.
Some 4.4 million children would lose coverage by 2019 and the children's uninsured rate, which has fallen from 7 percent to 4.1 percent under the ACA, would jump to 9.6 percent. And these numbers could grow much higher under other possible changes in federal and state policies.
A separate Urban report showed that nearly 30 million people would lose coverage by 2019 from an ACA repeal bill similar to the one President Obama vetoed in January 2016, due to its Medicaid eligibility restrictions, loss of subsidies for marketplace coverage, and the near-collapse of the individual insurance market. This new report shows that 4.4 million of those losing coverage would be ages 18 and under. Roughly 9 in 10 of the children losing coverage would be in families with working parents (see graph).
Almost all children with coverage in the individual market would lose it, largely due to the loss of subsidies that make private insurance more affordable. Many children would also lose Medicaid coverage, even though the repeal bill wouldn’t change children’s Medicaid eligibility, because their parents would lose coverage. Research shows that parents are less likely to enroll their children in coverage if the parents themselves aren’t eligible. The share of parents who are uninsured would more than double under repeal, to nearly 23 percent. Most of the parents losing coverage are in working families.
So once again, we're seeing the uninsured rate being even worse than it was pre-Obamacare, if the Republicans follow through on repeal and the promise to take away the subsidies that make health insurance coverage possible for so many families. In fact, 88 percent of the children who would lose coverage would be in from working families and 900,000 of them are under age 15. And if Congress makes good on promises to repeal the Medicaid expansion part of the law, an additional 8.9 million could lose coverage—additional, on top of the 4.4 million. And if Congress doesn't renew the Children’s Health Insurance Program (CHIP), which is set to expire in September 2017, there's another potential 3.7 million kids left out in the cold.
Given how Republican lawmakers feel about health care for their very own children, they probably won't be swayed from their repeal plans just because of it. But it sure should be enough to make Democrats unanimously refuse to help them do it.