As we do every four years, Daily Kos Elections is calculating the results of the 2016 presidential election for all 435 congressional districts, and this series of posts explores the most interesting results on a state-by-state basis. You can find our complete data set here, which we’re updating continuously as the precinct-level election returns we need for our calculations become available. You can also click here to learn more about why this data is so difficult to come by.
Hillary Clinton defeated Donald Trump 56-39 in Illinois, not much different than Barack Obama's 58-41 win over Mitt Romney four years ago. But below the surface, several congressional districts swung wildly in one direction or another.
Clinton carried 11 of the state's 18 districts, while Obama took 12. The 6th District, an affluent suburban Chicago seat represented by GOP Rep. Peter Roskam, was the one seat she took that Obama had lost. While Romney carried the 6th by a hefty 53-45 margin, Clinton won it 50-43. However, Roskam defeated an unheralded Democratic opponent 59-41. Maybe Trump can make Roskam vulnerable in a future cycle, but the well-connected incumbent still won't be easy to beat.
Trump won two seats that had backed Obama four years before. The 12th District, located in the St. Louis suburbs, dramatically swerved from 50-48 Obama to 55-40 Trump. National Democrats aired some ads against freshman Republican Rep. Mike Bost in the final days of the contest, but he won 54-40. The 17th District, located along the Iowa border, went from 58-41 Obama to 47.4-46.7 Trump. Democratic Rep. Cheri Bustos, who beat her Some Dude GOP opponent 60-40, hasn't ruled out a 2018 gubernatorial bid: If Bustos leaves, this district could be a top GOP target.
There were some other notable results in Illinois. Clinton carried the 10th District, which takes up the suburbs north of Chicago, 62-33, an improvement on Obama's 58-41. This area has been friendly to Republicans downballot, but Clinton's strong performance was too much for Republican incumbent Bob Dold to withstand. Dold lost to Democrat Brad Schneider 53-47 in their third bout: Schneider narrowly unseated Dold in 2012, and Dold returned the favor in 2014. It's possible the GOP will target this seat again in 2018, but this area isn't getting any redder.
The 14th District, located on the outskirts of the Chicago suburbs, still went for Trump 49-45, but that's a big drop from Romney's 54-44 win here. Democrats haven't shown any interest in targeting GOP Rep. Randy Hultgren, but this area may be competitive enough to get their attention in a good year. The 13th, which includes parts of Springfield and Champaign, went from 48.9-48.6 Romney to 50-44 Trump. That's a big swing, but at least it didn't shift as far to the right as the neighboring 12th did.
Finally, we'd be remiss if we didn't mention the Chicago-area 3rd District and its conservative Democratic congressman, Dan Lipinski. The 3rd backed Clinton 55-40, not too different from Obama's 56-43 win here. However, Lipinski has always voted like a Democrat in red territory; in 2014, Lipinski filled out a candidate questionnaire from the conservative Illinois Family Institute and said he supported an amendment to the constitution that would outlaw same-sex marriage. The 3rd can do better.