As we do every four years, Daily Kos Elections is calculating the results of the 2016 presidential election for all 435 congressional districts, and this series of posts explores the most interesting results on a state-by-state basis. You can find our complete data set here, which we’re updating continuously as the precinct-level election returns we need for our calculations become available. You can also click here to learn more about why this data is so difficult to come by.
Donald Trump defeated Hillary Clinton in Arizona 49-45, a drop from Mitt Romney's 54-45 win there four years ago. Trump took five of Arizona's nine congressional districts, losing one seat that Romney had won: The 2nd District, located in the Tucson area, swung from 50-48 Romney to 50-45 Clinton. But Republican Rep. Martha McSally ran far ahead of the ticket and defeated Democrat Matt Heinz 57-43, two years after unseating Democratic incumbent Ron Barber by just 168 votes. National Democrats spent almost nothing on Heinz, but Clinton's win could encourage them to make this a target in another cycle. However, McSally is a very strong fundraiser, and her decisive win could dissuade local Democrats from challenging her.
Democrats, meanwhile, hold one seat that backed Trump. The gigantic 1st District, which stretches from Arizona's northern border to the Tucson suburbs, supported Trump 48-47, not much different than Romney's 50-48 here. However, Democrat Tom O'Halleran held this open seat for Team Blue, defeating Republican Paul Babeu by a clear 51-44 margin. Babeu's awful past helped keep this seat from flipping. National Democrats ran commercials highlighting the child abuse that happened under Babeu's watch at a Massachusetts school he once ran; Babeu denied that he knew what was happening, but court documents, the testimony of his former students, and Babeu's own words contradicted that. GOP outside groups spent almost nothing to help prop up Babeu, apparently deciding that he was just too weak to be worth their investment.
Clinton decisively took the 3rd, 7th, and 9th Districts, and each seat has a Democratic House member. The 9th, which includes parts of Tempe, Scottsdale, and Mesa, shifted from a 51-47 Obama seat to one Clinton carried by a much wider 55-38. If Democratic Rep. Kyrsten Sinema leaves this seat to run statewide, Team Blue will be happy if they don't need to spend much to defend her district. Trump took the other four seats, and the GOP represents each of them. Rep. David Schweikert's 6th District, which includes some of Phoenix's northern suburbs, did move from 60-39 Romney to 52-42 Trump. That's still quite red, but it could be a hopeful sign for Democrats for the future.