When a safe, long-held House seat finally opens up, there's almost always a massive flurry of potential successors whose names float up, and the situation in California's 34th Congressional District is playing out exactly as you'd expect. Right after Gov. Jerry Brown announced he'd tap Rep. Xavier Becerra, who has represented this dark blue, majority-Hispanic seat in downtown Los Angeles since 1993, to replace Kamala Harris as state attorney general, former Assembly Speaker John Perez immediately jumped into the race, and now he's got company.
On Monday, Assemblyman Jimmy Gomez became the second Democrat to join the contest, and plenty more could follow. Here's a rundown:
• Los Angeles City Councilor Gil Cedillo (an aide says he's "exploring all of his options")
• Los Angeles Board of Education member Mónica García (reportedly being recruited by EMILY's List)
• Los Angeles County Supervisor Gloria Molina
• Ex-Los Angeles City Councilor Nick Pacheco
But several more have said no. Los Angeles City Councilman Jose Huizar was one of the better-known potential contenders, but he's opted against a bid. State Senate President Pro Tem Kevin de León said of Becerra, "I look forward to working with him side-by-side to defend California's progress every day for the next two years," so he's taken himself out of the running, too. And Assemblyman Michael Santiago offered almost the exact same phrasing, saying, "I look forward to serving side-by-side with him in my continued role in the state legislature."
State Sen. Holly Mitchell has also ruled out the contest and threw her backing to Perez, who has racked up quite a string of early endorsements. Half a dozen sitting members of Congress have come out for Perez, including Reps. Julia Brownley, Ted Lieu, Jared Huffman, Karen Bass, Scott Peters, and Judy Chu, as have a number of other notable elected officials. While these kinds of endorsements don't move votes, they do signal establishment support, which can mean quite a bit when it comes to raising money and motivating groups capable of turning out actual voters (like unions).
And in a special election, with its compressed timeframe and small electorate, that kind of help can really matter. That's of particular importance to Perez, who doesn't have a lot of local name recognition, according to a new PPP poll commissioned by local Democratic operative Michael Trujillo. Trujillo tells us that he paid for this poll out of his own personal interest and adds that doesn't have a rooting interest in this race, though he notes that he's worked for Huizar in the past.
Speaking of Huizar, the survey was taken before he declined, but he'd have started out in front, with 22 percent, with Garcia at 14, Gomez taking 10, Pacheco at 5, and Perez with just 3. Of course, that still leaves a ton of undecideds—46 percent—and with Huizar out, that means the race is even less settled. But in a head-to-head with Garcia, Perez would trail 38-23. (Other matchups weren't tested.) And right now, it's just a two-way race between Perez and Gomez, with a lot of game left to play.