Direct mail brings in tons of money but costs so much to implement that candidates end up netting very little. Rubio and his team knew full well that they wouldn’t be keeping most of his cash, but that wasn’t the point: By turning in an eye-popping quarter, Rubio could draw lots of attention and endorsements from Crist-hating Republicans, who would actually donate money to him that he could actually use later.
And it worked: In October, Rubio reported that he’d raised $1 million for the quarter. The well-funded Club for Growth quickly endorsed him and suddenly, Rubio’s once hopeless campaign had momentum. The world eventually found out that Rubio had burned through most of the cash he’d brought in, but by then, it didn’t matter. As one of Rubio’s advisors later put it, his direct mail stunt “was one-third confidence in our long-term prospects, one-third rolling of the dice, and one-third smoke and mirrors.”
For all Rubio’s problems in 2016, his 2009 move worked out pretty damn well for him, and it’s no surprise to see that some Republican candidates are still utilizing direct mail, even though they undoubtedly know how much it’ll cost them. However, while Montana’s Ryan Zinke and Utah’s Mia Love used direct mail during their 2014 campaigns, they haven’t given it up at all. even though they’re now incumbents. During the final three months of 2015, Zinke raised a monster $577,000 but he spent $597,000, leaving him with slightly less money in the bank than he had three months before. Love’s in a similar same boat: She raised $314,000 but spent $302,000, so she only netted a little bit of cash.
Both Zinke and Love sit in red districts, but both of them face credible Democratic contenders. State Superintendent of Public Instruction Denise Juneau raised $262,000 during her first quarter in the race, and unlike Zinke, she kept most of it. Juneau trails Zinke $744,000 to $240,000, which isn’t bad for this early in the race. Montana went for Romney 55-42 but the state still elects Democrats to downballot offices (Democratic Sen. Jon Tester won a tough race in 2012 for example), and it’s not out of the realm of possibility for Juneau to pull off a win.
Doug Owens actually came close to beating Love during last year’s GOP wave, and the DCCC has named him to their “Red to Blue” program, which promises to help Democratic candidates the committee regards as its strongest recruits in the seats it considers its top priorities. Doug hauled in $350,000, which is actually more than Love, and he only trails her $781,000 to $500,000 in cash on hand. Love won’t be easy to beat but she’s drawn some bad headlines for improperly billing taxpayers for her travels.
Unlike Rubio, Zinke and Love are already in Congress, so why are they still relying on scammy fundraising tactics? It’s possible that they just don’t care. After all, they won while using direct mail, so why shouldn’t they keep dancing with the one that brung ‘em? Both members may also be hoping to just expand their donor list by direct mail: While they may need to waste a ton now to acquire more donors, they can contact those donors later through much cheaper methods. Still, given how little cash Zinke and Love are netting, it doesn’t seem like they’re doing this right now.
Both members may also hope that, by repeatedly turning in what look like massive quarters, they’ll create buzz for future races. Indeed, one Montana political science professor noted that Zinke’s “shock and awe” strategy signals he’s a serious contender for higher office. Tester is up for re-election in 2018 and if Zinke wants to take him on, raising a lot of money is a good way to do it.
As one of the few people of color in the GOP caucus, Love also gets plenty of attention, and she may want to run in 2018 if Sen. Orrin Hatch retires. (Hatch said in 2012 that this would be his last term, but he’s declined to rule out another campaign since then.) But even if they win re-election this year, a complacent campaign could lead to a weak victory for either member, which could shatter their future dreams. But one thing’s for sure: As long as candidates need to inflate their totals, direct mail companies aren’t going out of business.