The GOP primary has featured three buckets—the tea party Trump, the religious right, and the establishment. Let’s see where things currently stand:
|
TRUMP |
RELIGIOUS RIGHT |
ESTABLISHMENT |
Undecided |
Feb 23 |
37.7 |
26.5 |
30 |
5.6 |
Jan 28 |
37.4 |
26.5 |
23 |
8.7 |
Jan 21 |
37.1 |
29.1 |
24.3 |
6.8 |
Jan 13 |
37 |
29.6 |
24.6 |
5.4 |
Jan 7 |
36.9 |
29.5 |
25.8 |
3.7 |
Dec 6 |
34.7 |
29.1 |
25.6 |
7.8 |
Nov 4 |
28.4 |
34.1 |
27.3 |
7.4 |
Oct 4 |
28.1 |
27.6 |
30.4 |
6.9 |
Sep 7 |
31.8 |
27.7 |
23.5 |
6.9 |
Aug 3 |
24.5 |
20.6 |
36.7 |
8.4 |
Trump and the two religious right candidates (Ted Cruz and Ben Carson) remain rock steady in overall support. The establishment bucket (Marco Rubio, John Kasich, and Jeb Bush) got a boost as undecideds and Rand Paul’s “libertarian” support swung its way, mostly to Kasich. The establishment is now trying to force Kasich out of the race, clearly hoping his support would then transfer to Rubio. Throw in Bush’s support (six percent before he dropped out) and the undecideds (Trump appears maxed out), and you suddenly have real competition to Trump.
Now we wait to see Trump , he still hasn’t fully unloaded on Rubio, which will now inevitably happen.
But for the first time, there appears to be a path for a competitive Rubio, and even if Trump remains on top, the chances of a brokered convention have exponentially increased.