It is two days till the primary and all polls point to a Sanders’ victory.
However, there are two things to consider.
First, especially because Sanders is seen to lead so convincingly, a lot of NH independents may be inclined to use their votes where they will see them as having more impact — in the hugely unsettled GOP primary. All polls point to the fact that Sanders’ huge leads are specifically due to independents. If a significant part of them choose to vote in the GOP primary instead, Sanders may find on Tuesday that much of the expected support has evaporated.
This is all the more significant because
Secondly, as was already diaried here, Clinton is once again leading among Registered Democrats in NH:
Sanders continues to crush Clinton among New Hampshire independents and liberals, but the former first lady now leads her rival among registered Democrats by 51 to 46 percent.
And, in a sign that the Sanders campaign is at least somewhat nervous, they are outspending Clinton’s campaign 3 to 1 in New Hampshire. And, according to Tad Devine,
The strategy, said Devine, was simple: backload the ads to flood the airwaves in the state that Sanders’ top advisors view as a must-win. And since Clinton and her husband have a history in New Hampshire, he explained, the heavy spending was not just about running up the score, it was also an insurance policy.
So Sanders is expected to win. But let’s see.