So … we all know how Nate Silver and his 538 site predicted that Hillary Clinton had something like a 98% or 99% chance of winning the Michigan Democratic primary.
Oops.
In his defense, Silver was pretty much relying on an average of polls for that prediction and the polls got it completely wrong. But hey … manure happens.
Can’t happen again, right?
Well … it seems that 538, which is also a sports site BTW, predicted that Michigan State University had a 95% chance of beating its first-round opponent, lowly Middle Tennessee State, in the NCAA Basketball Tournament.
MTSU is a No. 15 seed. Michigan State was a No. 2 seed.
For you non-sports fans, No. 15 seeds almost never beat No. 2 seeds. They are merely fodder for the higher seeded teams to feast on as they head for the Sweet Sixteen and the Final Four.
You know all those fantasy brackets that people fill out in office pools? Well, nobody ever picks No. 15 seeds to win, unless they are total homers or they are hallucinating. To be sure, a No. 16 seed has NEVER won an NCAA Tournament game over a No. 1 seed.
So imagine the shock when MTSU upset the Spartans.
But No. 2-seeded Michigan State lost to No. 15 Middle Tennessee State in St. Louis in one of the most memorable upsets ever in the NCAA Tournament. Unlike several of the purported “upsets” earlier in the first round, where the worse-seeded team was actually the favorite, this one was a real shock. In fact, our March Madness predictions had given Michigan State a 95 percent chance to win, while Vegas had the Spartans as 16.5-point favorites.
To put this in political terms, it would be akin to Martin O’Malley winning the New Hampshire primary.
Best to avoid any more Michigan predictions, Nate.