Contrary to what the mainstream media argues, Super Tuesday does not mean that Bernie Sanders is ‘finished’, that Hillary Clinton has the Democratic nomination ‘locked in’. All major media outlets projected and indeed declared Hillary the winner for good. On the other hand, the media was more interested in promoting Marco Rubio’s chances as the Republican Party establishment coalesces around him as the ‘moderate’ Republican. Rubio is a distant third place behind Donald Trump and Ted Cruz. He, however, ‘still has a shot’.
The reasons for this disparity are plain as day. For corporate and Wall Street interests, the real enemy is Bernie Sanders. The difference between the remainder of the presidential contenders, both Democrat and Republican in terms of economic policy, is miniscule. None of the others constitute a threat to corporate greed and reckless speculation by behemoth banks with market shares beyond their pre-2007 levels.
Thus, the headlines deceive the reader while the objective conditions of the Super Tuesday elections were anything but unfavorable for Sanders. It is now possible to envision a potential path to victory for Sanders, while it is becoming increasingly apparent that Hillary can only win with the help of the media and superdelegates.
1. Sanders has received more than 4.8 million contributions and has half a million volunteers. The grassroots effort is not lacking.
2. When it comes to elected delegates, Clinton even now leads only 577 to Sanders’ 394 delegates – not an unsurpassable lead by any means. 78% of the country is yet to vote. The contest is far from finished. However, the media insists on including the superdelegates backing Clinton -
3. On Super Tuesday, Hillary won states 7-4, but she won by 1% in Massachusetts (with the delegate spread 46-45), so i take it as a 6-5. Sanders won in Vermont, Colorado, Minnesota and Oklahoma. In addition, it was reported that Bill Clinton visited several polling stations in Boston, shaking hands and getting pictures clicked with voters — violating election law.. A few Boston precincts made all the difference.
4. It is difficult for Sanders to be disappointed with Super Tuesday, considering most of the South is now over, and Clinton has no more ‘firewall’ left to speak of. The remaining states are not higher ground for the establishment candidate. It is true that in 2008 Barack Obama crushed Clinton in the South, but we must also remember that Hillary had won all the big states – Texas, Florida, New York and California. Sanders does not share Obama’s disadvantages vis-à-vis Clinton in the North East, West Coast and the Industrial cities. The electoral roadmap ahead is reasonably favorable for him. Michigan, Illinois, Ohio, Mississippi, and Missouri among many other states, have open primaries. Super Tuesday had mostly closed primaries and caucuses – meaning that Bernie Sanders’ popularity with Independents didn’t factor in.
5. By getting more than 85%, Sanders triggered the winner-take-all threshold in his home state of Vermont, the only occasion in this primary as of yet. Further, he won by a bigger margin in Vermont (all delegates) than Hillary Clinton did in Arkansas.
6. Sanders has proved that he is excellent at gathering votes in liberal cities in blue states, as well as rural areas in unfavorable states.
7. Sanders won Minnesota and Colorado, the swing states. A victory in the swing states’ primaries would count for more in the general election than primary victories in red states that go to the Republicans in the Presidential vote.
8. There is a major downside to losing Massachusetts. Perhaps if Sanders had won the state, Sen. Elizabeth Warren would have had no choice but to endorse him.
9. Sanders has to win the big liberal states to make up for losses elsewhere. Out of them, New York and California offer him a good chance of a win, being the most progressive states in the country. Like Hillary Clinton, Sanders has two ‘home’ states. One such state is New York, where the Brooklyn-born Sanders has gotten endorsements from Zephyr Teachout (who strongly primaried governor Andrew Cuomo), the Working Families Party, MoveOn.org, and the State Senators of Harlem and Queens. California and New York alone comprise 837 delegates – while total superdelegates nationally number around 730.
10. With good wins in Florida, California, New York, Illinois and Ohio – Sanders could demonstrate his popularity in the heart of the Democratic base, as well as with voters in swing states. With Independents comprising as much as 42% of the electorate nationally – the Democrats ought to know they need all the help they can get. Clinton has proved incapable of generating an enthusiastic turnout.
11. Illinois and Ohio, as large swing states, in particular are must-win states for Sanders in the primary. Chicago mayor Rahm Emanuel’s unpopularity and his close links with the Clintons are factors that must be noted. The man who narrowly lost to Rahm Emanuel for the mayor post, Jesus ‘Chuy’ Garcia, has endorsed Sanders, who had come to campaign for him that year. The Democrats lose Illinois often because not enough Democrats in Chicago turn out to vote, which Republicans in the rural areas consistently turn out each election cycle. Disaffection with the Democratic establishment due to the Chicago mayor and his masters could lose them the state in the general election. While progressive Sen. Sherrod Brown (D- Oh.) was quick to endorse Hillary Clinton and her Wall Street platform, Sanders has found support from the outspoken former State Senator Nina Turner (D- Oh.) and from the Independents, and is pushing hard to win the state. Time will tell if those efforts are successful.
12. Sanders is polling well in Alaska, Maine, Kansas, Ohio, Wisconsin, Arizona, Michigan, Washington, West Virginia, Kentucky, Michigan, Oregon. In addition, he is now polling nationally on an average of four points behind Clinton, within most margins of error. A few big wins are necessary to create a domino effect to boost Sanders in these states as well as the ones earlier mentioned, or else the path to victory is dim.
The author is a research scholar in Modern and Contemporary History at Centre For Historical Studies, Jawaharlal Nehru University.