With the focus of the political world on Indiana this week, waiting to see if Tuesday marks the Waterloo moment for the Never Trump movement, the more competitive race may be on the on the Democratic side. Though the nomination is all but sewn up for Clinton, today’s race is not without intrigue.
Recent polls have shown that Donald Trump is surging and will likely win the Indiana primary by a moderate to heavy margin.
Conversely, the Democratic primary is potentially closer than the 6.8-point Clinton margin derived from the five most recent polls. In fact, the NBC-Wall Street Journal poll released on May 1 had Clinton up by four points, but actually down by one in a "potentially larger electorate". A look back at 2008 could offer some clues of what to expect.
Hillary Clinton won the 2008 Indiana primary over Barack Obama by 1.2 points as turnout ballooned to 1,278,355 votes, an historic turnout. That level of participation was exceptional when considering that only 204,977 voters participated in the Bradley-Gore race in 2000, and 317,211 voted in 2004 when John Kerry defeated John Edwards.
It will be interesting to learn whether the 2016 turnout even approaches that level of interest, and whether Clinton can match or exceed the 646,282 votes she received in 2008.
In some respects, this race should mirror the 2008 results, with Sanders enjoying advantages among voting blocs that Obama carried that year. For example, Obama won Independents by eight points. Given Senator Sanders’ performance in other open primaries, we can expect him to again carry this portion of the electorate. But the senator must exceed that margin to win the state overall. Moreover, Sanders will likely do well on college campuses, but matching Obama's margins there will not be enough to win the state.
Senator Sanders would benefit from levels similar to support for Obama among college graduates and post-graduate voters. These groups accorded Obama a 56-44 advantage in 2008, but have tended to favor Clinton in similar states this year. An intriguing finding emanating from the 2008 results is the 22-point margin earned by Clinton with Roman Catholic voters. Will they swing to Sanders this year?
The 2008 comparison still has limitations for Sanders, given the almost full reversal in voting blocs that now support Clinton. Obama won the African American vote in Indiana by 78 points over Clinton in 2008, yet despite being 17 percent of the total vote share, it was still not enough for him to carry the state. From her support this year among African American voters in other primary states, she will hope to replicate the voting patterns of 2008 here, where Obama won Lake County (Gary) and Allen County (Ft.Wayne) aided by the African American vote.
Hillary Clinton holds a similar, though less extreme advantage among African Americans right now. We expect her to carry 70 percent or more of the African American vote on tonight.
In 2008, Clinton performed better with Democrats (52 percent) than she did statewide, and won the white vote by a 60-40 result. She will not match those results tomorrow, as the white vote has consistently favored Sanders this year, especially in open primaries. Overall, Sanders needs to win the white vote by close to a 10-point margin in order to offset Clinton’s margin among African American voters.
As we have seen, Sanders’ emphasis on trade and inequality has resonated in other midwest states, such as Illinois and Michigan. This message should be particularly potent in blue collar areas of Northwestern Indiana, such as Hammond, Michigan City, Portage, and most importantly, St. Joseph County, home of Notre Dame. Allen County (Ft. Wayne) will also be an intriguing place to watch - in the 2008 primary the African American vote helped President Obama carry this county by almost 8,000 votes. Additionally, Obama won over 65 percent of the vote in Monroe County (Bloomington), home of the University of Indiana, and perhaps the most liberal segment of the state. To have any chance tomorrow, Senator Sanders needs a strong showing on college campuses, especially IU and Notre Dame.
In conclusion, a strong margin among blue collar voters, on college campuses and in rural areas is the only way Sanders wins today. Though the senator was favored by wealthier voters in early states, New York's wealthy suburbs rejected him in the recent primary, a result that was discernible in Connecticut as well.
Since both primaries are likely to exhibit high turnout, we should look for clues about the general election from the total vote cast for both parties. Recent general election polls show Trump beating Clinton statewide in Indiana. While it is highly unlikely a Democrat can win Indiana in the general election (although Obama carried the state in 2008), the total vote for both primaries may be indicative of enthusiasm for the likely general election nominees - Clinton and Trump. If both front-runners enjoy sizable victories there is no doubt that the general election matchup has crystallized.