Short answer: Yes, it's possible. Arizona represents one of the most interesting case studies of the 2016 election. It's gone Republican in every presidential contest since Bill Clinton took it in 1996, and it's home to the two voting blocs that are most fervently energized by Donald Trump: disgruntled whites and Latinos.
Trump is also a one-man motivator for Latinos, who make up about 30 percent of the state’s population but just 18 percent of the electorate in the last presidential election.
The real question: At what rate will Latinos turn out? There's no hard and fast data on that, but Trump appears to be cementing a shift that started to take place among the state's Latino voters after the SB 1070 "papers please" law was enacted in 2010 targeting undocumented immigrants. Though mainstream polling outfits are notoriously bad at surveying Latino voters, here's what the polling outfit Latino Decisions said last August about the prospect of turning Arizona blue:
We project the Democrats would have a 53 percent chance of carrying Arizona in 2016, with the prospects increasing from there.
Right. Again, that was last August, which has put John McCain’s Democratic challenger Ann Kirkpatrick in the perfect place to tie McCain to Trump.
That is why Rep. Ann Kirkpatrick (D) is encouraged about her underdog race to unseat McCain. Kirkpatrick’s strategy is to saddle McCain with Trump’s baggage and convince Arizonans that their senior senator has lost his independence.
“The fact that John McCain supports Trump is just another example that he’s changed, that he’s not the maverick,” Kirkpatrick said. “He wouldn’t even stand up to Donald Trump when Trump insulted him. He’s not going to stand up for us.”
McCain declined a request to be interviewed for this article.
State GOP officials are girding for a fight.
Gov. Doug Ducey, a Republican, signaled to Trump in a recent face-to-face meeting that he intends to work to "keep Arizona in the Republican column in the presidential race, the U.S. Senate, House races and the state Legislature," a Ducey spokesman told The Republic after the conversation.
But that means Trump must concentrate on protecting himself in a state that's usually reliably Republican, instead of devoting resources to turning states red. And as we have come to expect, Trump's falling short there.
Clinton’s footprint appears to be greater than Trump’s. His state director, Charles Munoz, is based in Nevada, and a visit last week to Trump headquarters in Mesa revealed little evidence of an active campaign.
The state's other GOP senator, Jeff Flake, has weighed in with advice for Trump:
Asked what Trump could do to ensure a win in Arizona, Flake said: “Come up with a more realistic immigration policy than build a wall and make the Mexican government pay for it, walk back the Muslim ban, stop talking about getting rid of libel laws. Should I go on?"
No—that will do nicely, senator.
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