I posted some ratings a while back, but I decided to make a diary about it, because this’ll be able to have information about the races in it. By the way, I’ve abandoned my Here’s How We Can Retake The House series. And warning: Whenever I talk about AZ-SEN, I employ the “good news for John McCain” inside joke. So, without further ado, let’s start.
Safe D
(Md)
(ca)
ct
HI
ny
or
wa
vt
co
il
wi
|
Likely D
(IN)
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
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Lean D
(NV)
NH
pa
nc
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
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Tilt D
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
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Pure Tossup
FL
az
mo
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
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Tilt R
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
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Lean R
ia
OH
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
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Likely R
ak
ga
ky
(la)
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
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Safe R
sd
nd
ut
id
ok
ks
al
sc
AR
-
-
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Safe D:
(California): Republicans were shut out of the Top-Two primary for the retiring Barbara Boxers seat. The race is between AG Kamala Harris and Rep. Loretta Sanchez. Sanchez is the more conservative of the two, and has a history of saying offensive things. Harris has the support of national Dems such as Barack Obama and Joe Biden, while Sanchez is being supported by a bunch of Representatives. Sanchez’s only path to victory is by holding enough Democrats and winning over the Republicans by a landslide. Unfortunately for her, most Republicans are not going to vote in this race, and the ones who do plan for are mainly voting for Harris, not Sanchez. I would call the race Likely Harris.
(Maryland): The primary has occurred here for the retiring Barbara Mikulski’s seat, and Rep. Chris Van Hollen got the nomination, beating out fellow Rep. Donna Edwards. The more progressive Edwards was probably favored until she ran an ad depicting that Van Hollen voted against Obama in a gun-related matter. Van Hollen and Obama denounced the ad, and told her to put it down. But, anyway, no point dwelling on a done deal. The GOP nominated State House Minority Whip Kathy Szeliga. Szeliga is a good B-list candidate, but it’s Maryland and a presidential year. That means Safe D.
Hawaii: Yawn. It’s Hawaii, so Brian Schatz will cruise easily. Next! Safe D.
New York: Chuck Schumer will destroy Attorney Wendy Long. Safe D.
Oregon: Ron Wyden is a beast fundraiser and will easily crush Some Dude Mark Callahan. Wyden will cruise. Safe D.
Vermont: Patrick Leahy faces a B-list challenger in 2014 gubernatorial candidate Scott Milne. Milne will try, but at the end of the day, it’s a federal election in Vermont. That means Leahy wins. Safe D.
Connecticut: Richard Blumenthal faces a B-lister, State Rep. Dan Carter. Paul Manafort claims Trump can win (He is wrong), but Carter should get 40% at least of the vote. But Blumenthal had a competitive election in 2010, the wave of all wave years, and still won. Blumenthal is just too entrenched in politics to lose. Maybe after Blumenthal retires if the GOP can recruit a top-tier candidate against a super-unpopular and controversial Dem in a wave year midterm. Maybe. Safe D.
Washington: If Patty Murray didn’t lose in 2010, with the huge Republican wave and Dino Rossi running against her, then ex-WA GOP chair Chris Vance has no chance to beat her. Indeed, in the Washington Top-Two primary on August 2, Murray got over 50. Murray could become the Senate Democratic Whip in 2016, as Schumer could replace Durbin with her, to allow Durbin time to focus on his likely gubernatorial campaign in 2018. But anyways, Safe D.
Colorado: What has become of the Colorado Republican party? First, their top candidate Mike Coffman declined. Then, they thought, okay, let’s get his wife Cynthia. She declined. Then, okay, they thought, maybe we can get George Brauchler or Scott Tipton. It looked like they would get Brauchler-but he declined. Then Tipton declined too. At the State Convention, super-conservative El Paso County Commissioner Darryl Glenn won 70% of the vote at the convention and eliminated all other candidates who tried the convention route, including frontrunner and State Senator Tim Neville, the only B-lister who ran. Then the establishment C-lister, Jon Keyser, got kicked off the ballot. He got restored, but was involved in a controversy over forged signatures. Businessman Robert Blaha and ex-rising star Ryan Frazier got kicked off the ballot and restored too. And then Glenn and ex-Democrat and ex-Colorado CSU something pr other Jack Graham seemed like the only credible candidates. Graham may have been done well had he won the primary, for he would been an acceptable establishment nominee, but the J-lister Glenn won. All polls have shown one-term incumbent and super-lucky Senator Michael Bennet crushing Glenn. So Safe D.
Illinois: This state is favored to flip from Democratic to Republican. Actually, it definitely will. Why is that? Well combine Mark Kirk’s old foot-in-mouth disease, Illinois’s Democratic safety, and the strenth of Democrat Tammy Duckworth, and you have a Democratic pick-up. Duckworth recently released an internal showing her up 44-37. Kirk had an internal a few weeks ago showing him up 40-38. National Republicans have abandoned Kirk for dead man walking. On the fundraising front, in the second quarter Duckworth outraised Kirk 2.6 mil to 1.1 mil. Kirk will not be able to convince enough voters he is a moderate. Good-bye, Mark. Hello Tammy. Safe D.
Wisconsin: Ah, the second seat definitely to go from R to D. Which one is likelier though? Ex-Senator Russ Feingold is stronger than Duckworth and fundraising stronger than her. But Ron Johnson is not even trying to appear moderate, and Kirk is at least. National Rs have not left Johnson for dead, as they have Kirk. Johnson has strong fundraising, but votes like the Senator from Alabama, not Wisconsin. Wisconsin is less blue than Illinois, yet Feingold has polled at or near 50, much stronger than Duckworth. All things considered, it’s hard to say. The Koch brothers, Johnson, Feingold, the Senate Majority PAC (A Dem-aligned PAC) and a bunch of other outside groups have been spending heavily here, but RoJo is dead. Safe D.
Likely D:
(Indiana): This is the only Likely Democratic seat, and there’s a peculiar reason why. Back in mid-July, things were looking bleak for Democrats. The seat was Likely Republican, Rep. Todd Young (R) was massively outraising Ex-Representative Baron Hill (D). Young had gotten past a (not really) competitive primary a few months before, so he was getting his archest back up. Hill had no operation, no ground game, no GOTV, no whatever. It never looked like he would step up his efforts. Then, something extraordinary happened on Monday morning, July 11. Ex-Senator Evan Bayh got back in the picture. He replaced Hill on the ballot, and suddenly, the race shifted. Todd Young was now the person looking bleak. Bayh had 9 million dollars left over from 2010, when he abandoned Democrats in a time of crisis, but that may have helped him, as he will not be affected by all the gridlock in Washington. Meanwhile, how much money does Young have? 1 million. Bayh is still massively popular, while Young is Generic R, and massively unknown. Bayh and the DSCC immediately started airing ads here. The Democratic internal polls of this race have all had Bayh up double-digits. The only two public polls of this race, Monmouth and the GOP group POS have had Bayh up 7 and 4, respectively. The internals have not been countered, a telling sign that Bayh is up. The only reason this isn’t Safe D is because it’s Indiana, and Indiana is almost always Republican. But still, Likely D.
Lean D:
(Nevada): This seat is the only non-safe Democratic seat. In fact, if you just look at the polls, Republican Representative Joe Heck seems to be a favorite for the seat over Reid-endorsed ex-AG Catherine Cortez Masto (D). But the polls are horrible, so don’t only look at the polls. Nevada is a pretty Democratic state, and the state should bomb for Trump (A heavy number of nonwhites, Mormons, etc.) Polls in Nevada always underestimate Dems too (Such as in 2012, when polls showed Senator Dean Heller (R) leading comfortably over then-Representative Shelley Berkley (D), when in reality he only won by one point). CCM massively outraised Heck in the last quarter. Like, massively. 3.6 mil-1 mil. The disparity was even more than the disparity between Tammy Duckworth and Mark Kirk, which was 2.7 mil-1.1 mil Duckworth. CCM is much stronger than Berkley was (Who had ethical questions), while Heck is a bit weaker than Heller. CCM should run close to Clinton, and Clinton should win, so Lean D.
New Hampshire: Trump is losing by double-digits here, and he’s going to take GOP Senator Kelly Ayotte down with him. Governor Maggie Hassan (D) is leading by 1 in YouGov, 3 in Vox Populi, 5 in a Democratic internal poll, and 10 (!) in WBUR. But, Hassan has stupidly refused to allow Syrian refugees in, and, much more recently, refused to say whether she believes Clinton is trustworthy. Luckily for her, she has no primary opposition and Ayotte had her own gaffe of declining to endorse Trump. Hassan is more popular and well-known than Ayotte, so there’s that. Hassan has also outraised Ayotte in the past two quarters, and the DSCC really wanted her. She’s strong, sure, but any primary challenger would just need two simple ads stating Hassans opposition of Syrian refugees, and her refusing to endorse Clinton. And one positive message, and they have a good chance to win. Respond to attacks by Hassan also. Both parties are still spending, but it seems like Ayotte may be this year’s Mark Pryor. Lean D.
Pennsylvania: GOP Senator Pat Toomey is doomed by Pennsylvania’s Democratic lean. His opponent, ex-Tom Wolf chief of staff and 2014 gubernatorial candidate Katie McGinty is pretty meh and had to get through a super nasty primary with ex-Representative and 2010 nominee Joe Sestak. Toomey is super-conservative (He used to be the head of the Club for Growth), but pretends to be moderate. The DSCC is supporting McGinty massively though (They spent about 10 million to get her through the primary), as is EMILY’s List. McGinty also has the resources necessary. She raised 2.9 mil in the last quarter, almost matching Toomey’s total of 3.1 mil, and Toomey is known for being a really strong fundraiser. SEPA, Pittsburgh, Scranton, and much of NEPA should give McGinty the win. Sestak only lost by 2 points in the horrible 2010 too, so that’s another plus for McGinty. The recent polls have all had McGinty doing well: +7 in Suffolk, +2 in Susquehanna, +4 in Marist, -7 in Emerson, +4 in Monmouth, +5 in F&M, +3 in PPP, tied in YouGov, and -1 in Quinnipiac. She’s only down in Emerson, which was landline-only, which automatically discredits it, and Quinnipiac, which is always pro-Republican. Average all these polls excluding Emerson, and she has a 3 point lead. Even including Emerson, she’s still up by 1.9. She doesn’t have an insurmountable lead, but it is a consistent one. Lean D.
North Carolina: This Senate election is kind of similar to the one in Penn, but Senator Richard Burr (R) isn’t doomed by the state lean, but by running closely to Trump. Burr is so anonymous that there are a large number of voters who’ll vote in this race the same way as in the presidential race. He isn’t doomed though, in fact, there have only been three polls showing Burr losing: A Democratic Democracy Corps poll showing him trailing by two, a Marist one showing him trailing by two once again to progressive ex-State Rep. Deborah Ross, and a YouGov poll showing him trailing by one. There have been three other polls recently here: PPP and Suffolk, showing Burr up 4, and Quinnipiac, which has Burr up 6. In the past few quarters, Ross has outraised Burr, a sign that Burr isn’t taking this race seriously. Ross will also have the full power of EMILY’s List, just like the other Democrats in the Leans Democratic category. Only Republican groups have gotten involved here so far, moving money from Ohio to here. No Democratic groups have gotten involved here, though they likely will redirect money from Ohio to here soon enough. If ex-Senator Kay Hagan, U.S. Secretary of Transportation Anthony Foxx, Treasurer Janet Cowell, ex-Representative Heath Shuler, State Senate Minority Leader Dan Blue, State Senator Josh Stein, State Senator Jeff Jackson, State Representative Grier Martin, State Representative Duane Taylor, or one of the countless other candidates Democrats attempted to recruit had run had, then we’d likely be doing even better. Lean D.
Tossup:
Arizona: Good news for John McCain? No? Nonsense, all news is good news for John McCain! McCain locked in a close battle with Representative Ann Kirkpatrick (D), with countless polls showing ties or McCain up only a few, with Kirkpatrick fundraising strong, having experience winning in a Republican-leaning district, the D-aligned Senate Majority PAC and DSCC spending for her, and having the full power of EMILY’s List on her side? And with McCain only winning his primary 52-39? Good news for John McCain, of course! Who cares that McCain could have lost if the perennial candidate still on the ballot wasn’t on there? Who cares that Clinton will likely win Arizona by a few over Trump, who is as unpopular as McCain, and that Kirkpatrick is much more popular than Clinton in Arizona? Good news for John McCain, despite the Leans Republican ratings of Sabato, Cook, and David, the Likely Republican rating of Gonzales (???) and the Tossup rating of RCP? Nope. Good news for John McCain, despite this Tossup rating.
Florida: Yep, polling has been weird. Whenever Clinton does better in polls, Representative Patrick Murphy does worse. When Clinton does worse, Murphy does better. Maybe that’ll change, since the primaries are over. Murphy easily crushed Representative Alan Grayson, Attorney Pam Keith, perennial candidate Rocky de la Fuente, and Businessman Reginald Luster. With Republicans, flip-flopper Marco Rubio easily crushed Businessman and vocal Trumpista Carlos Beruff. Both contests were supposed to be close and competitive, but Grayson imploded in the last month, and Murphy took a huge lead and never looked back. In fact, things started looking good for Murphy since Obama and Biden endorsed him. With Republicans, Representatives David Jolly and Ron DeSantis, Lieutenant Governor Carlos Lopez-Cantera, and Businessmen Todd Wilcox and Beruff were running, but when Rubio decided to run for reelection again, Jolly and DeSantis dropped down to their House seats, and Lopez-Cantera and Wilcox dropped out of running for office all-together. Since Rubio got Trump’s enthusiastic endorsement, Beruff had no chance. But in the general, Rubio will be attacked for his poor attendance record, him vocally saying he hates the Senate, and, most recently, his refusing to commit to serving a full six-year term if he’s elected. Rubio has tons of baggage, but will put up a good fight. Tossup, maybe a slight edge to Rubio right now, but make no mistake, Rubio is in for a tough battle.
Missouri: I’ll tell you what, at the beginning of this cycle, I had this race as Safe Republican. So, how did it get to Tossup, you ask? A combination of factors. So now let’s delve into those. For one, candidate recruitment. Democrats have managed to recruit Secretary of State Jason Kander (D) to run, who’s very moderate, relatively young, and an all-around good candidate. Kander is popular and should give Roy Blunt (R-inc) a tough time. Next, there are the polls. There have been four recent polls, showing Blunt up 3, 4, 7, and 5 respectively. Not a lot. They also have shown Blunt, who has been in Washington a long time, to be very unpopular. It was shocking when we first saw it, in a PPP poll from last year that had Blunt up 5. But now, it seems it may be that voters may be suffering Washington fatigue and want a fresh face. Outside GOP groups have been spending on behalf of Blunt for a few months, indicating they’re worried. The last reason is the Trumpocalypse. It should hit Missouri less than other states, but it will still hit. Recent polls have the presidential race close, but Clinton isn’t spending here yet. Blunt will probably win in the end, but Kander should give him the fight of his life. Tossup.
Lean R:
Ohio: I won’t dwell on this one, because ex-Governor Ted Strickland (D) has ruined things for Democrats. He’s been horrible at fundraising, horrible at defending his record, horrible at making his ads non-racist, and a horrible campaigner. In recent polls, Senator Rob Portman (R-inc) has had a lead approaching 10 points. Is all of that Strickland’s fault though? The GOP has been barraging him with ads. The NRSC, the Koch Bros., One Nation, the Chamber of Commerce, and Portman himself have been hammering Strickland without mercy over his gubernatorial record, which Strickland has conveniently only just started defending. On top of things, some of Strickland’s ads have had subtle racism, such as his now-infamous (to political junkies) fortune cookies ad. Strickland only raised 2 million in the most recent quarter, while Portman approached 4 million. Also, the DSCC and just about every other group has withdrawn their reservations for here. To make matters worse, a spokesperson for the DSCC has said Strickland can only win in a wave. Strickland is capable though, in 2010 it seemed he was down big to now-Governor and ex-presidential candidate John Kasich (In one Quinnipiac poll he was down 19), but only lost by 2 points. Strickland fought bravely then, and if he had that same spirit now he would probably be leading by a lot. So what gives? Is it six years away from campaigning? Is it old age getting to him? I don’t know, but Strickland’s spirited 2010 race and his résumé is the only reason this race isn’t further in the direction of the Republicans. But still, I can’t ignore the facts, and that is that Portman is ahead. Lean R.
Iowa: Who at the beginning of the cycle thought Chuck Grassley was vulnerable? Not most people, that’s for sure. But Grassley is, and isn’t because of the Trumpocalypse. Trump is actually holding up pretty well in Iowa, by the way. No, it’s because of the Supreme Court fight, where it seems McConnell will get his way, and Merrick Garland will not be confirmed. Why does that matter here, you ask? Well, Grassley chairs Judiciary, and he has firmly said there’ll be no hearings for Garland. After that, former LG Patty Judge jumped into the race. She beat State Senators Rob Hogg and Tom Feign and State Representative Bob Krause in the primary. Most polls of the general have shown Grassley ahead 52-42. The last two showed him up 51-42 and 45-38. It seems Judge can win, but has an uphill climb. Judge has experience winning elections, as before her election on Chet Culver’s 2006 ticket as Lieutenant Governor, she won two elections as Agriculture Commissioner. But Grassley first won election to the Senate in 1980, and has established a kind of popularity rarely achieved nowadays, and a reputation. Judge is a poor fundraiser too, which will make it harder to get her message out. Her first TV ad though was memorable, which showed her using a literal cardboard cutout of Grassley. It’ll be a tough climb, but Judge could be able to do it. Lean R.
Likely R:
Georgia: It seems this could have some potential actually. Republican Johnny Isakson hasn’t done anything to anger voters, and he’s been a generic backbencher, and his opponent, businessman Jim Barksdale isn’t incredible, as he only beat a Some Dude in the primary by 10%. The fact that his first ad was about a hat will tell you all you need to know. But Isakson is struggling. Polls have shown Isakson leading Barksdale by a lot, but well under 50. And in Georgia, if you don’t get 50%, there’s a runoff. And from what I’ve heard, both sides are preparing for a runoff. Now, if it was just Barksdale, it wouldn’t be notable, since he would want things to seem more competitive than they actually are. But Isakson too? It means there’s a serious chance of a runoff. But, Barksdale will probably get crushed in a low-turnout, winter runoff. In 2008, Jim Martin held Saxby Chambliss to just a 49-46 victory in November, but got crushed in December 57-43. There has also been some talk of Clinton getting a few points over 50, and dragging Barksdale just over the 50%+1 needed to avoid a runoff. Barksdale can self-fund, and will be well funding. Likely R for now, but I could see moving it to Lean R relatively soon.
Louisiana: There’s a way. Not a huge one, but there is a way to win this one. It’s nearly impossible, but there are two main ways. First, let’s review the candidates who are seeking David Vitter’s Senate seat, after Vitter’s embarrassing loss to John Bel Edwards last November. State Treasurer and 2008 Senate nominee John Neely Kennedy, Representatives John Fleming and Charles Boustany, 2014 Senate candidate Rob Maness, ex-KKK leader and 1991 gubernatorial nominee David Duke, ex-Representative Anh Cao, and Businessman Abhay Patel are in it for the Republicans. For the Democrats, Public Service Commissioner, former State Senator and 2007 gubernatorial nominee Foster Campbell, Attorney and 2010 Lieutenant Governor nominee Caroline Fayard, and Businessman Josh Pellerin are in. Independent former ATC Commissioner, former State Senator, and former State Representative Troy Hebert is also in it. Due to Louisiana’s jungle primary, all the candidates will run on the same ballot, with a runoff being held in December if no one gets a majority. Due to the sheer number of candidates, no candidate will get a majority. In polls, Kennedy generally grabs first easily, with Campbell, Boustany, Fleming, and Fayard competing for second, but Campbell is generally ahead for the second-place slot. Kennedy is known, due to airing ads during his reelection campaign last year despite being super-safe, and his unsuccessful 2008 bid for Senate. Against Kennedy, Campbell cannot win, much less Fayard or Pellerin. So, what is the way, you ask? Let me tell you. The first, and more conceivable way is for Campbell and Fayard to grab the two slots into the runoff, with Boustany bringing Kennedy down (They appeal to the same base of voters), and all seven major GOP candidates plus the Independent Hebert warring with each other, allowing Campbell and Fayard to slip through undetected. It could happen, though there’s only a 5% chance of that happening. The other, much less conceivable way, is for Duke and Campbell or Fayard to make it through the jungle primary. Duke is a flawed and unpopular candidate, and will be easily tied to Trump and the KKK. Louisiana will not vote for flawed candidates, and will vote against them even if it means voting for the Democrat, as we saw in Duke’s 1991 gubernatorial bid, and Vitter’s 2015 bid for governor. Duke is unpopular though, even among Republicans, and even Trump has condemned Duke, however half-heartedly, saying he would support a Democrat over Duke. There is almost no way Duke could get second or higher. But because of those two possibilities, Likely R. I’ll reassess after November, to see where we’re at.
Kentucky: We need to beat Rand Paul. Unfortunately, that probably won’t happen. The one person who would have had a realistic chance of winning, former Governor Steve Beshear was never going to run. It looked like now ex-Auditor Adam Edelen would run, but last November he lost his bid for reelection in an upset. Then, more candidates announced they wouldn’t run, and it looked like we may not have ended up with a candidate at all. But, fortunately, we got one: Lexington Mayor Jim Gray. He is LGBT, and will make history as the first LGBT man to run for Senate. It doesn’t seem to matter in conservative Kentucky though, shockingly. May I remind you that this was the home of Kim Davis? It shows how far the country has come. But, Kentucky is still conservative, and Trump should do fine here, so, Likely R.
Alaska: OK, let’s see. Where to begin? How about here. Lisa Murkowski (R-inc) easily destroyed her no-name opposition in the primary, after bigger names 2010 nominee and 2014 candidate Joe Miller, who actually beat Murkowski in the 2010 primary, State Sen. Mike Dunleavy, and ex-LG Mead Treadwell passed it on. Democrats are divided between ex-Republican and ex-State Rep. Ray Metcalfe and Democratic-supported Independent Attorney Margaret Stock. Murkowski is popular too, and shouldn’t be hit by Trump too hard, despite Alaska’s elasticness. On top of it, Libertarian Cean Stevens has dropped out. Safe R, right? Well, there’s another factor. You see, Cean Stevens was replaced on the ballot by none other than Joe Miller. Yes, that Joe Miller. The Joe Miller who beat Murkowski in the primary in 2010, and got second in 2014. So, we have ourselves a four-way race now. The question is, will Democrats coalesce around Stock, to have a chance to slip through against Miller and Murkowski? Other than that, there really isn’t anything of note here. Likely R.
Safe R:
Arkansas: Sen. John Boozman should win probably against Attorney Conner Eldridge, who is a good sacrificial lamb. The one poll here showed Boozman destroying Eldridge by 23 points. Arkansas is just too conservative for any Democrat to win statewide here anymore. Eldridge will be lucky to break 40%. Even Mark Pryor or Mike Ross would lose here now, and they did, in 2014 Senate and Governor. Democrats are deep in a hole in Arkansas, so there isn’t any rating that makes sense other than Safe R.
South Dakota: Sen. John Thune just beat then-Senate Majority Leader Tom Daschle by a bit more than 1 point in his initial election in 2004, two years after losing by less than 1,000 votes to Tim Johnson in 2002, but in 2010 he was unopposed. This year, he is opposed by software engineer Jay Williams. But South Dakota is solidly Republican, and Thune is popular and hasn’t done anything to anger voters. Safe R.
North Dakota: Sen. John Hoeven is so popular that when he decided to run for Senate in 2010 from his post of Governor, he scared the incumbent Democrat, Bryon Dorgan, out of running. The incumbent. His opponent, State Rep. Elliot Glassheim will be destroyed by Hoeven magnificently. Safe R.
South Carolina: Even though Trump is doing poorly in the presidential race here, black Sen. Tim Scott, the only black Republican Senator, is crushing Pastor Thomas Dixon, and is popular. Safe R.
Alabama: Sen. Richard Shelby has been in office since 1986, originally as a Democrat, and then as a Republican since 1994. Alabama is one of the most Republican states in the nation, and marijuana activist Ron Crampon cannot win. Safe R.
Kansas: We tried to get Greg Orman to run here again against Sen. Jerry Moran, but he refused, and our nominee, Attorney Patrick Weisner, is a ConservaDem. Safe R.
Oklahoma: This state denied Obama a single county in both of his presidential runs. Need I say more? Sen. James Lankford is completely safe against political consultant Mike Workman. Safe R.
Idaho: Sen. Mike Crapo is entrenched, popular, and is in one of the most Republican states in the nation. He will destroy investment banker Jerry Sturgill. You literally have to have a super-unpopular, scandal drenched Republican in a Democratic wave year with a ConservaDem to win in Idaho. Safe R.
Utah: Sen. Mike Lee was unpopular for his role in the 2013 government shutdown, but no one credible opposed him in the primary, and Democrats failed to get a credible Democrat to run here. In the primary, Democrats nominated the worse of their two options, cashier Misty K. Snow, rather than marriage counselor Jonathan Swinton. Snow will make history as the first transgender person ever to run for Senate, but she will be crushed magnificently, despite Trump’s unpopularity here. Safe R.
So, there is an overview of all the Senate seats up for election this year. The bottom line: Democrats are favored to retake the Senate, and 52 seats are at least leaning towards us. We probably have 50 seats, and we will probably take at least one of the Tossups, probably Florida. Missouri and Arizona are close too, and Iowa, Georgia, and Louisiana could be reach states in case of a huge wave. Ohio is moving away from us though, and would take a wave to win. It probably is more in the category of Iowa, Georgia, and Louisiana now than Florida, Missouri, and Arizona. 2018 will probably represent another flip though to the GOP, so we need to win the 50 seats we definitely have an advantage in. But that won’t be enough. The DSCC is spending in Florida and Nevada, and said they will start spending in North Carolina and Missouri soon. That bumps us up to 54 seats, which would make the Senate a Tossup. But, that’s the end of this diary. As always, comment if you feel I should add something, or fix something. I probably won’t have reason to do another diary in the near-future, but if I do, then see you next time!