As we do every four years, Daily Kos Elections is calculating the results of the 2016 presidential election for all 435 congressional districts, and this series of posts explores the most interesting results on a state-by-state basis. You can find our complete data set here, which we’re updating continuously as the precinct-level election returns we need for our calculations become available. You can also click here to learn more about why this data is so difficult to come by.
Hillary Clinton did well in Virginia—perhaps with an assist from Sen. Tim Kaine—winning 50-45, a slightly larger margin of victory than Barack Obama's 51-47 over Mitt Romney. Note also that is the first cycle where Virginia used its new court-drawn congressional map after the state's previous Republican-drawn map was struck down as an impermissible racial gerrymander. (Note that our 2012 numbers for Virginia, adjusted retroactively for redistricting, come from the state and don't factor in third party candidates, so any comparisons between 2012 and 2016 aren't quite apples-to-apples.)
Clinton carried five of Virginia's 11 congressional districts, one more than Obama. The sole Romney/Clinton seat was the 10th District, a very well-educated and affluent seat located in Northern Virginia: Romney won it 51-49, while Clinton took it by a wide 52-42. However, Republican Rep. Barbara Comstock still defeated Democrat LuAnn Bennett 53-47 in a very expensive race despite Donald Trump's problems here. Comstock is a potential candidate against Kaine in 2018, and her ability to win under tough conditions is one reason why plenty of Republicans want her to run.
Republicans hold the six Romney/Trump seats, while Democrats have the four Obama/Clinton districts, but there are some results worth noting. Trump carried the 2nd District, which is based around Virginia Beach, 49-45, a bit better than Romney's 51-49 win here. Republican Rep. Scott Rigell chose to retire, and Republican Rep. Randy Forbes decided to run here after redistricting made his seat safely blue. However, Forbes didn't represent any of the new 2nd, and he badly lost the primary to Del. Scott Taylor. Democrats were unable to recruit a credible candidate amidst all the chaos, and Taylor beat a perennial candidate in the general 61-38. This seat is still competitive enough that it could be in play in a good Democratic year if Team Blue can field a serious contender.
The 7th District, which is based in the Richmond suburbs, shifted a little in Team Blue's direction. Romney took it 56-44, while Trump won it by a smaller 51-44. Republican Rep. Dave Brat, who famously unseated then-Majority Leader Eric Cantor in the 2014 primary, is probably safe for a while, though this is another seat that's worth keeping an eye on. However, while Democrats made a play for the open 5th District in central Virginia, it probably won't be going anywhere anytime soon. Trump carried the seat 53-42, a bit better than Romney's 54-46, and Republican Tom Garrett beat Democrat Jane Dittmar 58-42.