Leading Off
● WI-Sen: On Thursday, Wisconsin GOP Rep. Sean Duffy announced that he wouldn't challenge Democratic Sen. Tammy Baldwin next year. Duffy's decision comes as a bit of a surprise, since he took the time during his uncompetitive 2016 re-election campaign to run a joint ad with Sen. Ron Johnson that seemed to have been partially an attempt to give Duffy some extra exposure ahead of a future statewide bid. At least one other potential Senate candidate, state Senate Majority Leader Scott Fitzgerald, also said that he'd defer to Duffy if he got in.
But Duffy may have decided that it wasn't worth giving up his secure hold on his rural district for a risky Senate bid, especially with Donald Trump's antics threatening to make 2018 a nasty year for Team Red. Indeed, as the University of Virginia's Kyle Kondik points out, quite a few other GOP House members have already passed on Senate bids. Of course, it's early in the cycle and things could change quickly. On the other hand, Duffy has a history of saying awful or just plain dumb things, so maybe Republicans really are better off without him.
Trump narrowly carried Wisconsin last year, and the GOP plans to make Baldwin a top target. No one has entered the race yet, but there are plenty of Republicans eyeing this seat. Fitzgerald, whose brother Jeff Fitzgerald took a distant fourth place in the 2012 primary, recently reaffirmed that he'd consider getting in without Duffy. But Fitzgerald, who also may be wary of repeating his sibling's fate, warned that a crowded primary could hurt the party's eventual nominee. Fitzgerald's state Senate seat is also up in 2018, so he might not want to sacrifice his powerful post for a tough bid.
A number of other Republicans have expressed interest. Wealthy businessman Eric Hovde, who took a close second in the 2012 primary, said in mid-November that he'd decide over the next six to nine months. Businessman and veteran Kevin Nicholson also recently said he was looking at a bid. State Sen. Leah Vukmir, who is also up for re-election in 2018, also has now confirmed that she's considering, though she said she had no timeline for when she'll decide, while state Rep. Dale Kooyenga hasn't said no. Lt. Gov. Rebecca Kleefisch has also been periodically mentioned, though she hasn't said anything publicly about her interest.
There's also Trump fan and Milwaukee County Sheriff David Clarke, who repeatedly runs for re-election as a Democrat but is really anything but. Clarke doesn't sound incredibly excited about running, but he declined to rule it out last month. A recent PPP survey gave Clarke a horrible approval rating at home, so he may just decide it's a better bet to finally make his alliance with the GOP official and challenge Baldwin rather than seek another term next year.
Gubernatorial
● CT-Gov: This week, GOP Shelton Mayor Mark Lauretti said that he would run for governor next year, with an announcement to come in late March. This is Lauretti's third straight cycle running for the state's top office, but neither of his last bids went very well. In 2010, Lauretti dropped out long before the primary due to a federal corruption probe of his town; while two developers and a former building inspector were eventually imprisoned, Lauretti was never charged with anything. Lauretti ran again in 2014, but he failed to get enough support at the state convention to advance to the primary. Lauretti signed on to be Danbury Mayor Mark Boughton's running mate, but Lauretti couldn't even get enough signatures to get on the primary ballot for lieutenant governor. So yeah, he doesn't exactly sound like a formidable candidate.
One other Republican, state Rep. Prasad Srinivasan, has entered the race. However, it's very likely a few stronger contenders will get in soon enough. While Connecticut is generally a blue state, it's been willing to elect GOP governors in the past. In 2010, Dan Malloy became the first Democrat to win the governor's mansion since William O'Neill was re-elected in 1986. However, Malloy has posted atrocious approval ratings, with a June Quinnipiac poll giving him a 24-68 score in June. Malloy hasn't announced his 2018 plans yet, but Republicans are hoping that even if he retires, they can link the eventual Democratic candidate to him.
So far Boughton, who lost the 2014 GOP primary, and Trumbull First Selectman Tim Herbst have formed exploratory committees. State Sen. Tony Hwang hasn't ruled out running, and he's also formed an exploratory committee for an unidentified statewide office. So has attorney Peter Lumaj, who lost the 2014 secretary of state race just 51-47 and claims he's keeping his options open about what to run for this time. There are other Republicans who may be eyeing this post as well. Democrats are mostly watching quietly to see what Malloy will do, though Middletown Mayor Dan Drew has already formed an exploratory committee, though he doesn't seem to be readying to challenge the governor.
● FL-Gov: Tampa Mayor Bob Buckhorn has been mulling a run for this open seat for a while, and he recently told the Tampa Bay Times that he'll decide, "Within the next month or two." Winning in Florida is very expensive and a number of other Democrats are eyeing this post, and Buckhorn acknowledges that if he's "going to do it, I've got to get moving." But the Times' Adam Smith reports that the mayor "has done little to build buzz among the donors and activists who pay close attention long before most Floridians" at a time when his would-be primary rivals are assembling campaigns. Even Buckhorn says he's "got to figure out if it's something I want," but it's possible that by the time he decides what to do, it may be too late to mount a strong race.
● KS-Gov: This week, oil businessman Wink Hartman announced he would seek the GOP nomination for this open seat next year, making him the first declared candidate. Hartman ran for the House in 2010, losing the GOP primary for the Wichita-based 4th District to Mike Pompeo, who recently became director of the CIA, 39-23. Hartman loaned his House campaign about $2 million, but it's unclear how much he can or will spend this time. A number of other Republicans are eyeing this contest.
● MA-Gov: While Democratic Attorney General Maura Healey ruled out a 2018 run against GOP Gov. Charlie Baker a while ago, a Healey advisor seemed to open the door to a gubernatorial bid just a crack earlier this month. But on Wednesday, the Boston Globe's Joshua Miller directly asked Healey if her declaration that she planned to run for re-election instead meant that she definitely wasn't running for governor. Miller asked Healey if her "message to Democrats looking for a candidate is 'find another candidate for governor, no matter what, it's not going to be me in 2018,' is that right?" Healey responded, "That's what I'm saying." Maybe things will change if Baker's strong approval ratings get a lot softer but at least for now, it seems we can once again put Healey in the no pile.
● VA-Gov: Quinnipiac takes an early look at this November's open seat race, and it gives Democrats some good news. Q tests two Democrats, Lt. Gov. Ralph Northam and ex-Rep. Tom Perriello, against four Republicans: 2014 Senate nominee and ex-RNC Chair Ed Gillespie; Corey Stewart, the Trump-loving chair of the Prince William County Board of Supervisors; state Sen. Frank Wagner; and distillery owner and likely Some Dude Denver Riggleman. The closest matchup is Northam vs. Gillespie, and Northam leads by a convincing 41-35.
Perriello performs about 1 to 2 points better against each Republican than Northam in each matchup, but that's small enough that it probably doesn't mean much, at least not at this point. A month ago, a Mason-Dixon poll found Gillespie leading both Democrats and of course we're a long while from Election Day, so Democrats shouldn't get too excited this early.
Quinnipiac also tests both parties' primaries, and finds most voters aren't paying much attention. On the GOP side, Gillespie leads Stewart 24-7. Gillespie has far more money than the rest of the field, so he appears well-positioned to hold onto whatever edge he has now. On the Democratic side, Northam and Perriello deadlock 19-19, with the vast majority not taking a side yet. Northam has the backing of Virginia's Democratic establishment, while Perriello is hoping to run to the left of Northam; Northam in turn is arguing that Perriello isn't the progressive hero he claims to be.
House
● SC-05: On Thursday, tea partying Rep. Mick Mulvaney was confirmed as Donald Trump's director of the White House Office of Management and Budget. Mulvaney soon resigned from the House, and the special election to succeed him was scheduled. Candidate filing closes March 13, and the party primaries will be held May 2. In contests where no one takes a majority of the vote, a primary runoff will be held May 16, with the general election taking place June 20.
Mulvaney unseated longtime Democratic incumbent John Spratt during the 2010 GOP wave, and this northern South Carolina seat has only become redder over the last few years. Trump carried this district, which includes Rock Hill and Frank Underwood's home of Gaffney, by a punishing 57-39; Romney won a smaller but still strong 55-44 four years earlier. Most of the action will be in the Republican primary, and several candidates have already entered the race.
Running for Team Red are former state party chair Chad Connelly; anti-Common Core activist Sheri Few; attorney Tom Mullikin, who heads the all-volunteer SC State Guard; Ralph Norman, who lost to Spratt in 2006 and resigned from the state House on Thursday to focus on his campaign; state House Speaker Pro Tempore Tommy Pope; and attorney Kris Wampler. More Republicans may also come out of the woodwork now that Mulvaney has officially left.
Legislative
● Pres-by-LD, AZ State Senate, AZ State House: Our project to calculate the 2016 presidential results for every state legislative seat in the nation comes to Arizona, a state where Hillary Clinton noticeably improved on Barack Obama's 2012 performance even in defeat. You can find our master list of states here, which we'll be updating as we add new states; you can also find all our data from 2016 and past cycles here.
The Grand Canyon State backed Donald Trump 49-45, a smaller win than Mitt Romney's 54-45 victory four years before. Arizona is divided into 30 legislative districts, and each one elects one senator and two state representatives every two years; the districts are exactly the same for both chambers. The GOP holds a 17-13 majority in the Senate and a 35-25 majority in the House, with Democrats netting one seat in each chamber. (Though one of the Senate seats Democrats won back was a seat they only lost because the retiring incumbent switched parties.)
Arizona's legislative and congressional districts are drawn by an independent redistricting commission, a body the Republican legislature has repeatedly tried to sue out of existence. Trump carried 16 of the legislative districts, losing two seats that Romney won. None of the 13 Senate Democrats sit in Trump districts, while just one Senate Republican has a Clinton seat. Republican Kate McGee won a promotion from the state House 51-49 even as her suburban Phoenix LD-28 swung from 53-45 Romney to 50-45 Clinton. The other Romney/Clinton seat is LD-18 south of Tempe, which went from 50-48 Romney to 52-42 Clinton. Last year, Democrat Sean Bowie won this seat 51-49, which became open after the Republican incumbent lost his primary.
Democrats haven't controlled the state Senate since the early 1990s, though a coalition of Democrats and moderate Republicans ran the chamber in the early 2000s when both sides controlled half the seats. If Democrats hold all 13 of their current seats, there is a path to forcing another tie: Unlike in most states, there is no lieutenant governor who could break a tie, so there would presumably be some sort of power sharing agreement. Besides McGee's LD-28, the Republican in the bluest seat is Steve Yarbrough in LD-17; this Chandler seat swung from 56-42 Romney to 49-45 Trump, though Yarbrough won by a convincing 57-43.
But even if Democrats hold all their seats and unseat McGee and Yarbrough, getting the 16th seat they'll need to outright control the chamber will be very difficult. Republican Kimberly Yee represents what on paper should be their next target, but her LD-20 backed Trump 51-43. That's a drop from Romney's 55-42 win but this suburban Phoenix seat is still quite red, and Yee won 50-36. Unfortunately, the turf only gets tougher from Democrats after that.
Over in the House, three Republicans represent Clinton seats while no Democrats hold Trump turf. Both legislative districts that swung from Romney to Clinton have one Democratic and one Republican state representative each. The one Republican who holds an Obama/Clinton seat is Todd Clodfelter in the Tucson-based LD-10; his seat swung from 52-47 Obama to 53-42 Clinton, but Clodfelter narrowly regained his seat after losing in 2014.
The Daily Kos Elections Morning Digest is compiled by David Nir, Jeff Singer, and Stephen Wolf, with additional contributions from David Jarman, Steve Singiser, Daniel Donner, and James Lambert.