Some encouraging news today out of Pennsylvania courtesy of the latest F&M Poll:
Fewer citizens pick up the phone when caller ID shows an unfamiliar number and even fewer stay on the line to answer questions from strangers. Online polls, meanwhile, are hit-or-miss at best. And small variations in wording can have a bigeffect on the findings.
With all of those caveats aside, Thursday's Franklin and Marshall poll brought a spot of good news for Pennsylvania's two highest-ranking Democrats up for reelection in 2018.
After taking a hit during 2015's budget impasse, which wasn't resolved until March 2016, Gov. Tom Wolf's favorable ratings have rebounded. And Casey enjoys favorability ratings on par with his all-time best showings in the F&M poll, although the last time voters were asked about Casey was in October 2013.
Both will face challengers in the 2018 mid-term elections.
One Republican, York County State Sen. Scott Wagner, has already declared his gubernatorial campaign. In an echo of Wolf's own approach to his 2014 campaign, Wagner committed $4 million of his money into a war chest that will see the waste-hauling tycoon through what could be a contentious GOP primary.
State Rep. Rick Saccone, of Allegheny County, was the first Republican to mount a challenge to Casey. His formal announcement is scheduled Feb. 27 in the Capitol Rotunda.
In a poll of 816 registered voters, a combined 41 percent of respondents held a favorable opinion of the governor compared to 34 percent with an unfavorable opinion. Another 13 percent were undecided and 11 percent didn't know.
Now here’s a little more context:
Casey’s personal favorability among voters has seen a similar increase since this time in his last re-election cycle. Currently 41% of Pennsylvanians have a favorable view of Casey, a full 16 points higher than in March 2011.
There’s one important caveat: the March 2011 poll surveyed adults in general, including some who were not registered to vote.
Casey’s numbers by region show a fairly good picture for re-election, polling above 30% in all of the geographic regions of the state. But Casey’s numbers with non-whites are not as favorable, with 67% rating him as fair or poor and 32% positively. For comparison, Governor Tom Wolf has a 36/55 split with non-whites and President Trump is at 5/92.
Franklin & Marshall surveyed 816 registered voters from February 15-19. Respondents were contacted by letter and given the choice between phone interview or online interview. The margin of error is plus or minus 5 percent.
F&M calculates job approval differently than most pollsters that tends to result in lower ratings – regardless of party. Respondents choose between a rating of excellent, good, fair, and poor. The approval numbers are pulled from the excellent and good categories.
As for Trump, the picture isn't great:
Amid a tumultuous start marked by contentious fights over his Cabinet nominees, legal challenges to his executive orders and the resignation of his first national security adviser, a new statewide Franklin & Marshall College poll found that a majority disapprove of the way the president is handling the position.
Only one in three registered voters in Pennsylvania believes Trump is doing an excellent or good job as president, the poll found. The majority - 54 percent - gave him a poor performance rating.
"I'm not surprised by what we found - Trump is controversial and provocative to be sure," said G. Terry Madonna, director of the F&M College poll. "The language and style he uses to communicate is extremely divisive. We knew this during the campaign."
The respondents - 391 Democrats, 310 Republicans and 114 independents - were divided sharply along party lines. About 60 percent of Republicans rated the president's performance positively, while just 9 percent of Democratic and 35 percent of independent voters viewed his performance the same way.
"One of the most profound differences in politics right now is ideological polarization," Madonna said. "But ultimately, Trump will rise or fall based on whether he can deliver on his promise to bring back good-paying jobs."
However, a majority of voters are still confident in Trump's ability to handle issues relating to the U.S. economy. Doubt prevails when it comes to his ability to tackle immigration reform and foreign relations.
There is still one fight that Casey must part take in to keep up with the Resistance and that’s the Supreme Court:
Liberals are applying pressure from the other side. They are still seething over Trump’s victory, and they see the Gorsuch nomination as a rare chance to block the president. Many lawmakers remain furious over how the GOP last year treated Judge Merrick Garland, whom then-President Barack Obama nominated to fill the same seat.
“Pennsylvanians saw a Supreme Court seat stolen. I think it’s fair to say all bets are off, and concerned citizens are fired up,” wrote Christine Stone, co-chair of the left-leaning Why Courts Matter-Pennsylvania.
Casey, in the interview this month, said he told Vice President Pence personally that the Garland fight would be a weight on this decision, and that he doubted there would be bipartisan cooperation on judges any time soon. “It’s going to be difficult,” he said.
Two of the 10 Democratic senators running next year in states Trump won have already pledged to vote against Gorsuch: Sherrod Brown of Ohio and Tammy Baldwin of Wisconsin.
In New Jersey, Sen. Cory A. Booker has also vowed to oppose Gorsuch while fellow Democratic Sen. Bob Menendez has said he is looking forward to reviewing the nominee's work.
Why Courts Matter has urged Casey and Sen. Pat Toomey (R., Pa.) to join the opposition, and is planning rallies, a petition drive, and other events to attack Gorsuch’s record. (Toomey has said he will support Gorsuch, barring a bombshell.)
“We are confident that Sen. Casey will come to the same conclusion we have: that Judge Gorsuch is not mainstream, but rather is an extreme nominee,” Stone wrote in an email.
Democratic resistance, however, may not be enough. Some Republicans are agitating to change Senate rules to allow confirmation to a Supreme Court seat with only a majority, instead of 60 votes, as Democrats did for other nominations. That might allow them to confirm Gorsuch without any Democrats on board.
Casey has raised questions about Gorsuch, potentially laying the groundwork for a “no” vote.
After he sat with the judge last week, he issued a statement saying the current Supreme Court “has ruled overwhelmingly in favor of big corporations and Judge Gorsuch’s judicial record suggests he may continue that trend.” He also critiqued Gorsuch’s decisions on cases that involve protections for people with disabilities.
But his statements left room to vote either way.
I believe Casey will vote No but he needs to keep hearing from. Click here to tell Casey to reject Neil Gorsuch for the Supreme Court. And let's help both men get ready to win next year. Click below to donate and get involved with Casey & Wolf’s re-election campaigns.
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