So what was that all about? On Wednesday, Politico published a piece saying that Rep. Hakeem Jeffries, who would likely be the strongest possible challenger to New York City Mayor Bill de Blasio in this fall's Democratic primary, would not run for mayor after all—but then, later that afternoon, Jeffries himself tweeted that he would not make a "final decision about City Hall" until the spring.
What's really strange is that Politico actually quoted Jeffries himself, who said, "The stakes are so high in Washington, D.C., right now, and I want to be part of the effort to turn the situation around. It would be a dereliction of duty to abandon ship at the moment when times are tough." That seems pretty clear! The only way Jeffries could square this circle would be to claim that the "situation" will get turned around by springtime (and that he therefore wouldn't be derelict in his duties). Obviously, the situation won't improve until Jan. 20, 2021 at the earliest, so no dice.
And while we wait for Jeffries to figure himself out, another notable Democrat is now publicly suggesting he might run. City Councilman Dan Garodnick, who is term-limited, says he is "exploring my options," which presumably means either a mayoral bid or, perhaps, a run at City Comptroller Scott Stringer. Garodnick intended to run for comptroller in 2013 but got shoved out when Stringer dropped down from that year's race for mayor. It's also possible (though unlikely) Stringer himself could challenge de Blasio, giving Garodnick a clearer shot at a the comptroller's office.
Garodnick is more of a second-tier candidate, though, and while he could likely raise a lot of money from developers, de Blasio's relationship with labor unions is still very strong, and his support in the African American community remains high. For him to be unseated, it'd probably take a candidate with a higher profile, like Jeffries or Stringer. But time is quickly running out to put together a serious campaign, so it's possible that despite all his many, many stumbles, de Blasio could emerge without a major primary opponent.
And barring an intra-party fight, it's unlikely that de Blasio could fail to win a second term. While Republican developer Paul Massey outraised de Blasio in the last six months of 2016 ($1.6 million to $1 million), he's almost entirely unknown and has already proven to be an awkward candidate on the trail. But New York did elect Republican mayors five times from 1993 through 2009 (Rudy Giuliani twice, then Mike Bloomberg thrice, though he later ran as an independent), so if latent hostility toward de Blasio really coalesces, perhaps Massey or another Republican could put a scare into the mayor.