District 99 is being contested by 2 Democratic candidates this cycle. The seat is currently held by Republican Margaret Ransone. This seat was not challenged by a Democrat in the last cycle. The last time it was challenged by a Democrat was in 2011 when Ransone won by a daunting 7,976 vote margin out of 20,694 cast. Ransone is one of a few candidates not to have a challenger that has actually grown her support compared to her last contested race.
There is a total of 32 precincts in District 99. 4 in Caroline County, 5 in King George County, 6 in Lancaster County, 6 in Northumberland County, 5 in Richmond County and 6 in Westmoreland County.
Here is the share of Active Voters by Locality:
Just looking at the pie chart it is hard to discern where you might want to focus first, although King George is likely a good spot.
Here is chart showing the Republican vote share of active voters by locality. The Republican vote share per precinct indicates King George and Westmoreland Counties are the area of weakest support for the Republican. That said, you need to compete everywhere in this district to have any hope of pulling out a victory.
The final scatterplot shows actual vote totals for Republican compared to total registered active voters in the district. It becomes very clear there is work to do across the board. The precincts that deserve the first look are those that fall below the line and to the right. they show soft support for the Republican. the 3 precincts with around 2,000 active voters where there were less than 600 votes cast.
This is just a quick snapshot on some of the analysis that can be done simply based on publicly available data. There is a deeper analysis that can be done for sure.
You can request a file from the ELECT office by contacting Vanessa Archie at vanessa.archie@elections.virginia.gov or at (804) 864-8908. Ask what it would take to obtain the Vote History List for District 99, let her know you are a candidate or working on the campaign if you are a member of the campaign committee.
Let's Turn Virginia Blue in 2017.
Note: My name is Donald Braden. This was posted to my blog on my website The Full Slate Project.