In its regular monthly employment situation report, the Bureau of Labor Statistics announced Friday that the U.S. economy generated 235,000 seasonally adjusted, net new jobs in February, 227,000 in the private sector, 8,000 in the public sector. The gain marked the 77th consecutive month of overall job growth, and was a close match for February 2016. The headline unemployment rate fell slightly to 4.7 percent.
Bloomberg chalked this up to optimism resulting from the election of Donald Trump to the presidency. But the business news network didn’t say anything so positive about Barack Obama last February when the number of new jobs gained was almost exactly the same. Or in February 2015 when the number was almost exactly the same. Trump himself retweeted a tweet from the Drudge Report saying “GREAT AGAIN.”
Notice that neither Trump nor any of his minions raised the issue he raised last year that the “real” unemployment rate is 42 percent and 94 million American adults are unemployed. As was pointed out when he said this during the campaign, those numbers include retired people in their 80s, people in school, the disabled, and people who choose to (or must) remain at home to take care of children, the sick and elderly. In other words, the Trumpian claim is utterly bogus.
Unemployment has fallen steadily since the recovery began nearly eight years ago, but until recently, wages have been fairly flat, though they picked up starting late last year. Average nominal wages for private-sector workers were up over the 12-month period since February 2016 by 2.8 percent, slightly above the current inflation rate of 2.5 percent.
Unemployment rates differ by race and sex. For U3: Adult men: 4.3 percent; Adult women: 4.3 percent; Whites: 4.1 percent; Blacks: 8.1 percent; Asians: 3.4 percent; Hispanics: 5.6 percent; American Indians: (not counted monthly); Teenagers: 15.0 percent; (for teenagers of color, the unemployment rate is usually much higher.)
The BLS count always includes both full-time and part-time positions. A person who has worked one hour a week during the survey period is counted as employed.
The BLS also revised its previous calculations for January from 227,000 jobs to 238,000 and for December from 157,000 jobs to 155,000.
The estimated number of jobs is generated from the Current Employment Survey of 147,000 business establishments and government agencies. As noted above, the BLS calculated the rate of unemployment—the one that appears in most headlines and that the bureau labels U3—at 4.7 percent for February. That rate is based on the results of the Current Population Survey of 60,000 households. You can read details here of how the BLS makes its calculations and why it seasonally adjusts the actual numbers.
The bureau has established a "confidence level" for its monthly estimates of plus or minus 115,000 jobs. This means the "real" number of new jobs created in February was not 235,000 but instead ranged between 125,000 and 350,000.
In addition to the headline unemployment rate, there are others. The most inclusive BLS measure of “labor underutilitization” is labeled U6. This measures both unemployment and underemployment. Many economists view it as a better measure of job health than U3, but there are different opinions about that. A key U6 component comprises workers in part-time jobs who would like to have—but cannot find—full-time positions. U6 fell 0.2 points to 9.2 percent in February, the same level as December 2016.
The civilian workforce in February rose by 340,000 after having risen by 76,000 in January. The labor force participation rate rose 0.1 points to 63 percent, the highest level since March 2014, and the employment-population ratio also rose 0.1 points to 60 percent, the highest level since February 2009.
Another calculation the bureau makes each month is the employment-population ratio for Americans who are 25 to 54 years old. Of the entire workforce of adults aged 16 years old and older, those in this group are the most likely people to be employed. Their situation is a key indicator of the nation’s overall economic health. It’s been 18 years since this age group reached its highest employment-population ratio—84.6 percent. It hit is lowest—74.8 percent—in November 2010. It’s been rising since then, and in February the rate rose to 78.3 percent, the highest level it’s been since October 2008.
Here are some other details from the report:
• Average hourly earnings of private-sector production and nonsupervisory employees rose 4 cents an hour to $21.86 in February.
• Average work week for all employees on non-farm payrolls remained unchanged in February at 34.4 hours.
• Average hourly earnings for all employees on private non-farm payrolls rose 6 cents an hour in February to $26.09.
• The manufacturing workweek in February remained unchanged at 40.8 hours.
• The average workweek for production and nonsupervisory employees on private non-farm payrolls in February remained unchanged at 33.6 hours, where it has been since August 2016.
February Job Gains and Losses for selected categories:
- Professional services: +37,000
- Temporary help services: +3,100
- Transportation & warehousing: +8,800
- Financial activities: +7,000
- Leisure & hospitality: +26,000
- Information: 0
- Education and health services: +62,000
- Health care & social assistance: +32,500
- Retail trade: -26,000
- Construction: +58,000
- Manufacturing: +28,000
- Mining and Logging: +9,000
Here's what the seasonally adjusted job growth numbers have looked like in the previous 10 years compared with this February’s gain of 235,000.
February 2007: +89,000
February 2008: - 84,000
February 2009: -702,000
February 2010: - 68,000
February 2011: +189,000
February 2012: +237,000
February 2013: +286,000
February 2014: +151,000
February 2015: +238,000
February 2016: +237,000