Leading Off:
● IL-03: Chicago-area Rep. Dan Lipinski has long been one of the more socially conservative members of the House Democratic caucus. As recently as 2014, Lipinski responded to a candidate questionnaire by saying that he would support an amendment in the constitution to ban same-sex marriage. Lipinski hasn't gotten any better in the age of Trump: This year alone, Lipinski was one of just three Democrats who voted in favor of a GOP bill to ban federal funding for abortion services. Lipinski has also voted to overturn an Obama-era Health and Human Services rule that prevented states from withholding funds to Planned Parenthood and other healthcare groups that also provide abortions. Illinois' 3rd Congressional District backed Barack Obama 56-43 and supported Hillary Clinton 55-40, so Lipinski isn't voting with Team Red because he's worried about a GOP opponent.
Lipinski has only attracted token primary challenges for the last decade, but that may change soon. Marketing consultant Marie Newman has formed an exploratory committee ahead of a possible bid, and she says she's likely to announce in the spring. Newman has wasted no time arguing that Lipinski is too conservative for his seat, noting that he was one of the few Democrats to vote against Obamacare in 2010. Newman has lined up some well-known local consultants and has ties to anti-Trump groups like Indivisible, which could help her make connections. With progressives infuriated at Trump and donations to anti-Trump candidates high, Newman may be able to haul in the type of cash she'd need to get her name out in the expensive Chicago area.
However, even if Newman or another candidate can raise a credible amount of money, Lipinski will not be easy to beat. Back in 2008, Lipinski faced a well-funded primary challenge from Mark Pera, but Lipinski defeated him 54-25. Lipinski has been an ally of Chicago's powerful Democratic machine, and he's also close to local labor groups. Lipinski and his father Bill Lipinski have represented this area for a combined 18 terms, and plenty of voters are still loyal to the family. There are also still many local Democratic primary voters who share Lipinski's views on abortion and won't see them as a liability at all. It's also possible that, even if a majority of Democratic voters have soured on Lipinski, other candidates will run and split the anti-Lipinski vote enough to secure him renomination. But with progressives inflamed at Democrats who are giving Trump any support, there's probably never been a better time to unseat Lipinski.
Senate
● AZ-Sen: George W. Bush, whom sources tell us is an uncle of Texas Land Commissioner George P. Bush, will headline a fundraising dinner for GOP Sen. Jeff Flake next month. Flake had an unimpressive $580,000 in the bank at the end of 2016, and he may face a tough primary after spending the last cycle criticizing Trump. Democrats are also hoping to target this seat.
Gubernatorial
● IL-Gov: There's no shortage of Democrats thinking about challenging vulnerable Republican Gov. Bruce Rauner, and venture capitalist J.B. Pritzker is the latest to take steps to do so. Pritzker, a billionaire who says he would self-fund any campaign, recently formed an exploratory committee. Rauner himself is incredibly rich and has already seeded his re-election campaign with $50 million of his own money, so a 2018 gubernatorial matchup with Pritzker could see a flood of spending.
Pritzker is the younger brother of former U.S. Commerce Secretary Penny Pritzker, who has previously been mentioned as a potential candidate, but never said anything about the race publicly herself. However, J.B. Pritzker's interest probably makes his sister's candidacy even less likely. Several other Democrats are already running, including Chicago Alderman Ameya Pawar, Madison County Regional Superintendent of Schools Bob Daiber, and wealthy businessman Chris Kennedy, whose father was the late Sen. Robert F. Kennedy.
● NJ-Gov: Quinnipiac's newest poll of the Garden State's 2017 governor's race gives Republicans some dire news. The pollster finds Democrat Phil Murphy wiping the floor with Republican Lt. Gov. Kim Guadagno by a 47-25 margin, with term-limited GOP Gov. Chris Christie's abysmal 17 percent approval rating almost certainly doing his lieutenant governor no favors. The situation appears little different from their January poll, where Murphy led 45-29.
The survey also contained matchups for the upcoming June 6 primary, but revealed that most candidates are still largely unknown. On the Democratic side, Murphy leads with 23 percent, followed by Assemblyman John Wisniewski at 6, and state Sen. Ray Lesniak and Clinton-era U.S. Treasury Undersecretary Jim Johnson at 4 each. Murphy, a wealthy former Goldman Sachs executive and ex-ambassador to Germany, has sown up much of the party establishment's support and has far more money available than his rivals, but he could be vulnerable if one (but probably only one) of his opponents catches fire. Among Republicans, Guadagno leads former 1980s Saturday Night Live cast member Joe Piscopo 28-18, while no other primary candidate earns more than 3 percent. Piscopo has been flirting with a bid for months but isn't running yet; the filing deadline is April 3.
Other Races
● Staten Island, NY Borough President: If you're anything like us, when you saw this header you immediately thought, "Which disgraced ex-Staten Island Republican House member is this about?" The answer is Mike Grimm, who was released from prison last April after serving most of his eight-month sentence for tax evasion. In response to a mysterious poll testing Grimm in a hypothetical GOP primary with Borough President James Oddo, Grimm only told the Staten Island Advance that he has "no comment other than, look a lot of people have asked me to run" this year.
An unnamed source reports that Grimm has met with Guy Molinari, who is a former congressman, borough president, and a Grimm mentor. Grimm reportedly is considering but not ready to run and "needs to be convinced." Molinari himself didn't deny meeting with Grimm, but insists he has no idea what he'll do.
Grimm had a short but eventful career in Congress. When reporter Michael Scotto asked the congressman about his alleged campaign finance violations in early 2014 just after the State of the Union, Grimm told Scotto that, "you ever do that to me again I'll throw you off this fucking balcony," and further told him, "I'll break you in half. Like a boy." Grimm probably didn't know the camera was still recording the entire confrontation, but that incident didn't stop him from decisively winning a third term that fall 55-42 while under indictment, even though national Republicans had abandoned him.
Grimm benefited from the GOP wave and from a Democratic opponent who came from outside of Staten Island and also made some embarrassing mistakes. But Grimm also argued that the federal government was persecuting him, a line that resonated in a place that's full of voters who, rightly or wrongly, view themselves as neglected by their city, local, and national governments.
P.S.: As for Staten Island's other disgraced ex-GOP House member, Vito Fossella currently hosts a pro-Trump TV show for the conservative site Newsmax. Fossella retired from the House in 2008 after his arrest for drunk driving led to revelations that he had a second family.
The Daily Kos Elections Morning Digest is compiled by David Nir and Jeff Singer, with additional contributions from David Jarman, Steve Singiser, Daniel Donner, James Lambert, and Stephen Wolf.