Daily Kos Election’s project to calculate the 2016 presidential results for every state legislative seat in the nation hits New Mexico, where Democrats hold majorities in both chambers. Hillary Clinton defeated Donald Trump 48-40 here, while ex-Gov. Gary Johnson took 9 percent as a Libertarian; as a bonus, we’ve calculated Johnson’s results in each legislative district, as well as in the state’s three congressional districts. You can find our master list of states here, which we'll be updating as we add new states; you can also find all our data from 2016 and past cycles here.
In 2014, the GOP won a narrow 37-33 edge in the state House, giving them their first majority here since Dwight Eisenhower was president. However, Democrats won back control last year, taking a 38-32 majority. Clinton carried 45 of the 70 seats, taking four districts that Mitt Romney had carried four years before while losing three Obama seats.
In 2011, when it was time to draw new legislative districts, GOP Gov. Susana Martinez vetoed the Democratic legislature’s proposed maps, and a court ended up drawing the new seats for both chambers. Not surprisingly, the court-drawn state House map doesn’t seem to give either party an advantage. One way to illustrate this is to sort each seat in each chamber by Trump's margin of victory over Clinton and see how the seat in the middle—known as the median seat—voted. Because New Mexico has an even number of House seats, we average the Clinton and Trump percentages for the middle two seats to come up with the median. This middle point in the House backed Clinton 49-40, almost identical to her statewide performance.
In 2016, crossover voting helped the GOP more than it helped Team Blue, but not enough to allow them to stay in power: Nine Republicans represent Clinton turf, while only two Democratic House members hold Trump seats. Democratic state Rep. George Dodge Jr. won the general election without any opposition even as his eastern HD-63 shifted from 50-47 Obama all the way to 51-37 Trump, with Johnson grabbing 10 percent.
Candie Sweetser, the other Democrat in a Trump seat, unseated Republican incumbent Vicki Chavez narrowly won an open seat even as HD-32, which is located in New Mexico’s southwestern corner, swung from 49-48 Obama to 47-44 Trump. State Rep. Nathaniel Gentry holds the most pro-Clinton seat of any of the nine Republicans. Gentry’s Albuquerque-area HD-30 went from 50-44 Obama to 48-37 Clinton, with Johnson taking 12; Gentry won his fourth term 52-48. The entire state House is up every two years, and the GOP will likely try to retake the speaker’s chair in 2018.
Finally, we’d be remiss if we didn’t mention HD-41, which is represented by one of the worst Democrats in the chamber. Clinton carried this seat 64-24, but Democratic state Rep. Debbie Rodella has repeatedly sided with the GOP and voted against measures to make voting easy. Hopefully, someone will challenge Rodella in a primary because this area can definitely elect a much better Democrat in a general.
We’ll turn next to the upper chamber. Democrats have held the Senate since the late 1980s, and they won a 26-16 majority last year. Because the chamber is only up in presidential years, they won’t need to worry about the Senate again for a while. Clinton carried 27 seats, trading two Obama districts for two Romney seats. The Senate map was also drawn up by a court, and it also doesn’t seem to favor either party: The median point in the chamber backed Clinton 48-40, again very similar to the state as a whole. Two Democrats represent Trump seats, while three Republicans hold Clinton districts.
The most Trumpy Democratic-held seat is SD-35, located in the southwestern part of the state. This seat went from 51-46 Romney to 50-41 Trump, but longtime Democratic incumbent John Arthur Smith didn’t face any GOP opposition. Republican state Sen. Candace Ruth Gould’s Albuquerque-area SD-10 went from 49-47 Obama to 46-41 Clinton, with Johnson taking 11 percent, but she narrowly won her first term 51-49.
Finally, we’ll take a quick look at Gary Johnson’s support. Johnson scored his highest percentage of the vote in HD-65, a large seat that stretches from the northern border to the Albuquerque area. Clinton won 67 percent of the vote here, while Trump edged Johnson 17-14 for second place. We’ve also calculated Johnson’s showings for all three congressional districts. Johnson won 11 percent of the vote in Albuquerque’s 1st, which Clinton carried 52-35. Trump won the southern 2nd District 50-40, with Johnson at 8; in the northern 3rd, Johnson took 9 as Clinton won 52-37.