MN-01: Democratic Rep. Tim Walz's decision to run for governor (see our MN-Gov item) opens up his southern Minnesota seat, which includes Rochester and Mankato. This district violently lurched from 50-48 Obama to 53-38 Trump, and it will likely be a top GOP target. However, as Daily Kos Elections’ David Jarman shows, this area has been very politically divided for decades, so it’s possible 2016 was just a temporary shift. As recently as the 2014 GOP wave, Democratic Sen. Al Franken carried the 1st 49-45 while he was winning statewide 53-43, while GOP gubernatorial nominee Jeff Johnson won the seat 48-45 as he was losing the election 50-45.
On the Democratic side, Roll Call’s Simone Pathé mentions ex-state Rep. Terry Morrow, who served as Walz’s campaign manager last cycle, as a potential candidate. Morrow was first elected in 2006, and he resigned just after he was re-elected without opposition in 2012 to take a new job. It’s unclear if Morrow is interested in running to succeed his boss, and he has not said anything publicly yet. Roll Call also says that state Rep. Tina Liebling could run, though there’s no indication if she's interested. Liebling has been considering running for governor and she will reportedly announce her plans this Sunday. Pathé also name-drops state Rep. Gene Pelowski and state Sen. Dan Sparks, but there’s also no sign yet that either of them are considering.
On the Republican side, businessman Jim Hagedorn, whose father Tom Hagedorn left the House in the early 1980s, declared he was running last year. In 2014, Hagedorn defeated the national GOP’s preferred candidate in the primary, but he raised very little money for his bid. Hagedorn attracted bad headlines when his old writings denigrating… well, almost everyone, surfaced. (Sample: In 2002, he called Washington’s two female U.S. senators, “undeserving bimbos in tennis shoes.”) Both parties ignored the race, and Walz won 54-46. Hagedorn came back for a rematch in 2016, and he once again raised only a little cash and earned almost no outside help. Hagedorn unexpectedly lost just 50.3-49.6, but his near-upset was almost certainly due to Trump’s coattails than to the candidate’s appeal.
It’s very likely that national Republicans will want to shove Hagedorn aside, but it’s not clear who will step up. So far, the only other Republican we’ve heard from is state Sen. Jeremy Miller, who has flirted with running for this seat in the past. Miller told MinnPost’s Sam Brodey that Walz’s decision not to seek re-election was a “game changer,” but Miller declined to say anything about his own plans. It’s likely that we’ll hear from more Republicans in the coming days and weeks.