New Orleans Mayor Mitch Landrieu is termed out of office this year, and a so-called “jungle” primary to succeed him will be held on Oct. 14. All candidates will compete on one ballot, and if no one takes a majority, the top two vote-getters will advance to the Nov. 18 general election regardless of party. There’s little question that Landrieu’s successor will be a fellow Democrat in this very blue city, but it’s far from clear who it will be. (And note: Because mayoral races kept coinciding with Mardi Gras season, this election was recently bumped up from February 2018 to October 2017; future races will take place every four years in October from now on.)
The filing deadline is July 14, and as is often the case in slow-moving Louisiana politics, the race may not fully take shape until then. Back in 2010, after initially announcing that he wouldn’t run, Landrieu himself kicked off his successful campaign that year just days before the filing deadline. Landrieu was already one of New Orleans’ most prominent politicians so he could afford to change course at the last moment, but it’s not uncommon in Louisiana for politicians to make their plans clear late in the cycle.
This year, two notable contenders have jumped in so far. Former Judge Michael Bagneris, who lost to Landrieu 64-33 in 2014, has announced that he’ll run again, but his last campaign was decidedly unremarkable. However, City Councilor LaToya Cantrell announced last week that she would also run, and she’s likely to be a formidable candidate.
Cantrell, who was the subject of an in-depth Politico Magazine profile a couple of years ago, rose to prominence for her work helping her neighborhood recover from Hurricane Katrina. She later won a city council seat in a 2012 special election by defeating an opponent who was backed by both Landrieu and Rep. Cedric Richmond, who represents New Orleans in Congress. On the council, Cantrell is perhaps best known for spearheading a successful drive in 2015 to ban smoking in bars and casinos. She’d also be New Orleans’ first female mayor.
She’s likely to face more competition, though, since a number of other Democrats are eyeing the race.
State Sen. J.P. Morrell, who hails from a prominent local political family, says he’s “very interested,” and The Advocate says he’s expected to announce his plans in mid-May. State Rep. Walt Leger also recently formed a new campaign committee that allows him to raise money for a mayoral race, and the New Orleans Times-Picayune reports that he’s “expected to announce his candidacy soon.”
However, Leger and Morrell are close, and it’s possible one of them will decide not to run. Leger also has a prominent profile: He served as speaker pro tem of the GOP-dominated state House since 2012 (such odd arrangements are still a feature of state politics), and last year, newly-elected Democratic Gov. John Bel Edwards selected him to be speaker. In Louisiana, the governor traditionally chooses the legislature’s leaders, but the GOP caucus (as well as one rogue Democrat) balked at letting a Democrat run the chamber, and Leger narrowly lost.
State Sen. Troy Carter has expressed interest, too, and he’s close to Richmond, who is an important presence in city politics. Carter is a longtime politician who has served in the state House, on the city council, and in various government consulting jobs since 1991. However, Carter performed badly during his 2002 mayoral campaign and in two races a decade ago for the House seat now held by Richmond.
But wait—there’s still more! Municipal Court Judge Desiree Charbonnet, who, like Morrell, hails from a well-connected family, previously said no to a mayoral bid, but she’s reportedly reconsidering. And bombastic rich guy Sidney Torres IV, who stars in a reality TV show that features him as a real estate investor/guru, is talking about jumping in, and says he’d spend $4 million of his own money.
Torres, who also is a member of a prominent political family (but one that hails from nearly St. Bernard Parish) and is known for creating an app that purportedly helps fight crime in the French Quarter, cuts a decidedly Trump-esque profile that he readily embraces. He even bragged to the New York Times that he was asked to move his private jet because Trump wanted to use the same hanger for a campaign rally! But Orleans Parish gave 81 percent of its vote to Hillary Clinton last year, so this may not be the best city for a candidate looking to emulate President Agent Orange.
And even after running through this extensive list, there are still several other New Orleans politicians whose names have been mentioned in the local press, so the roster of hopefuls could still grow further.
As for the race itself, the city’s high crime rate is a perennial election issue, and it likely will remain so this year. Race is also often a fault line in local elections, though not always. African Americans are 57 percent of registered voters here while white voters make up 35 percent of the electorate, and black politicians have tended to dominate the landscape. However, in 2010, Landrieu became New Orleans’ first white mayor since his father, Moon Landrieu, left office in 1978, so race is not destiny here.
And given the potential size of the field and the lack of a single dominant candidate, it’s impossible to forecast how the vote might split. Bagneris, Cantrell, Morrell, Carter, and Charbonnet are all black, while Leger and Torres are white.