The Bureau of Labor Statistics announced Friday in its regular monthly employment situation report that the U.S. economy generated 98,000 new jobs in March, 89,000 in the private sector, 9,000 in the public sector. It was the lowest gain since May 2016 and one of the lowest of the 8-year-old recovery, but the seasonally adjusted net gain still marked the 78th consecutive month of overall job growth. The headline unemployment rate—which the BLS labels U3—fell slightly to 4.5 percent, the lowest level since December 2007, the first month of what came to be known as the Great Recession.
The consensus of experts surveyed by Bloomberg in advance of the report had forecast a gain of 178,000 jobs.
The BLS count always includes both full-time and part-time positions. A person who has worked even one hour a week during the survey period is counted as employed.
In addition to the surprisingly low gains for last month, the bureau also revised its previous calculations for February from 235,000 to 219,000 and for January from 238,000 to 216,000, a combined readjustment of 38,000 downward.
Average hourly earnings in March rose 2.7 percent, or 68 cents, from last March. That is an exact match for the current annual inflation rate, which mean workers are just holding steady in the wages arena, not getting ahead. The March figure is a drop from the 2.8 percent nominal annual wage growth recorded in February.
Since the summer of 2009, the period experts say the recovery began—based on renewed expansion of the gross domestic product—unemployment has fallen steadily but given the depth of the Great Recession, it took a long time for the job count to return to its pre-recession level. During most of his period, wages remained flat. Late last year, they began rising a slightly higher pace.
Unemployment rates differ by race and sex. For U3: Adult men: 4.3 percent; Adult women: 4.0 percent; Whites: 3.9 percent; Blacks: 8.0 percent; Asians: 3.3 percent; Hispanics: 5.1 percent; American Indians: (not counted monthly); Teenagers: 13.7 percent; (for teenagers of color, the unemployment rate is usually much higher.)
The BLS estimates the number of jobs using the Current Employment Survey of 147,000 business establishments and government agencies. The unemployment rate is based on a different survey—the Current Population Survey of 60,000 households. You can read details here of how the BLS makes its calculations and why it seasonally adjusts the numbers.
The bureau has established a "confidence level" for its monthly estimates of plus or minus 115,000 jobs. What that means is that the "real" number of new jobs created in March was not 98,000 but instead ranged between a loss of 17,000 and gain of 213,000.
The BLS calculates other unemployment rates in addition to the U3 one seen in most headlines. Of these others, the most inclusive measure of “labor underutilitization” is labeled U6. This gauges both unemployment and underemployment. Many economists believe it provides a better picture of job health than U3. But not all agree. A key U6 component consists of workers in part-time jobs who would like to have—but cannot find—full-time positions. U6 fell 0.3 points to 8.9 percent in March.
The civilian workforce in March rose by 145,000 after having risen by 340,000 in February. The labor force participation rate remained unchanged at 63 percent, the highest level since March 2014, and the employment-population ratio also rose 0.1 points to 60.1 percent, the highest level since March 2009.
The bureau also calculates the employment-population ratio for Americans ages 25 to 54. Of the entire workforce of adults aged 16 years old and older, individuals in this group are the most likely to be employed and their situation is viewed as key indicator of the nation’s overall economic health. Eighteen years ago, this age group reached its highest employment-population ratio—84.6 percent. It hit its lowest point—74.8 percent—in November 2010. Since then, it’s been slowly rising. In March it climbed to 78.5 percent, the highest level it’s been since September 2008.
Here are some other details from the report:
• Average hourly earnings of private-sector production and nonsupervisory employees rose 4 cents an hour to $21.90 in March.
• Average work week for all employees on non-farm payrolls remained unchanged in March at 34.3 hours.
• Average hourly earnings for all employees on private non-farm payrolls rose 5 cents an hour in March to $26.14
• The manufacturing workweek in March fell 0.2 hours at 40.6 hours.
• The average workweek for production and nonsupervisory employees on private non-farm payrolls in March fell 0.1 hours to 33.5 hours.
March Job Gains and Losses for selected categories:
- Professional services: 56,000
- Temporary help services: 10,500
- Transportation & warehousing: 3,500
- Financial activities: 9,000
- Leisure & hospitality: 9,000
- Information: -3,000
- Education and health services: 16,000
- Health care & social assistance: 16,700
- Retail trade: -29,700
- Construction: 6,000
- Manufacturing: 11,000
- Mining and Logging: 28,000
Here's what the seasonally adjusted job growth numbers have looked like in the previous 10 years compared with this March’s gain of 98,000.
March 2007: 190,000
March 2008: -78,000
March 2009: -823,000
March 2010: 164,000
March 2011: 225,000
March 2012: 233,000
March 2013: 130,000
March 2014: 272,000
March 2015: 86,000
March 2016: 225,000