A couple of weeks ago, I used the results of the Kansas special election to note that the trends were showing an enthusiasm gap. In comparing the results of the 2016 Presidential vote to the special election’s results in that district, it appeared Dems were able to maintain 60% of their 2016 votes, while the Republicans were only able to hold 40%.
Using those figures, I made an estimate of what the results of the Georgia 6th District special election would be, using the same trends:
My Calculation:
Democrats: 93,046 59%
Republicans: 64,009 41%
Here’s what the actual vote totals ended up being:
Georgia 6th District
2016 Presidential:
Hillary Clinton: 155,077 47%
Donald Trump: 160,022 48%
2017 Jungle Primary:
All Democrat Candidates: 93,911 49%
All Republican Candidates: 97,997 51%
Democrat Dropoff: 39.4%
Republican Dropoff: 38.8%
In other words, while Republicans were able to do better than their Kansas showing, keeping about 60% of their 2016 vote, here the Democrats, once again, were able to maintain about 60%.
So, in two special elections now, Democrats have shown that they can keep their numbers high, considering we are comparing an off-year Congressional vote to a Presidential year top-of-the-ticket.
That’s pretty amazing people.
So...let me do this calculation again for the next special election: the Montana at-large district.
2016 Presidential:
Clinton: 177,709 36%
Trump: 279,240 56%
I will again apply a Democrat Dropoff of -40% — what happened in both Kansas and Georgia — and average the Republican Dropoff in those two to -50%.
Democrats: 106,625 43%
Republicans: 139,620 57%
What this tells me is this: If we really want to win it here folks, Democrats will have to be even more energized and engaged than even the last two special elections. That doesn’t seem like a barrier to me though: it seems more like a challenge.
My message here, is this: the persistence of Democrats is working. These results are not coming in a vacuum: they are a direct result of those of you on the Left rising up to #resist, and working your butts off with all the grassroots organizations working on the ground knocking doors and pounding pavement and making those calls.
Keep it up, people.