The struggle is real for prospective 2018 GOP candidates: Should they or shouldn't they jump in?
With a commander in chief who's as predictable as an untethered balloon in a tornado touting a list of legislative accomplishments as short as his stubby thumbs, many would-be GOP candidates are strongly weighing becoming 2018 won't bes.
For instance, former Florida Rep. David Jolly won a 2014 special election, lost in 2016, and is having heartburn over whether to take a stab at reclaiming his seat in 2018. Jolly said watching the GA-06 special election where Democrat Jon Ossoff will be facing Republican Karen Handel in June has been instructive. Alex Isenstadt of Politico writes:
“Ossoff simply has to speak to the president's failure, while Republicans have to wrestle with whether and how to defend Trump's historically low approval ratings and how closely to align with a president who at any moment could undermine Handel's entire messaging strategy with an indefensible tweet or an outright lie.”
Jolly, who lost reelection in 2016 and is considering running again, said he and other would-be GOP midterm contenders are struggling to take measure of what they’d be getting themselves into. The election is bound to be a referendum on Trump’s first two years. Two Republicans, Wisconsin Rep. Sean Duffy and Indiana Rep. Susan Brooks, recently announced they will be forgoing Senate runs.
"If you're a prospective candidate, boy, it's tough," Jolly said.
That's the exact ambivalence that not only has Paul Ryan but also Mitch McConnell fretting over the upcoming midterms.
Democrats will need about two dozen pickups to retake the House in 2018; they need only three pickups to flip the Senate, though they'll be defending 25 seats (including those of two independents who caucus with them) to only nine seats for the GOP.
On the positive side, Democrats are seeing a surge in interested candidates, small-dollar donations, and voter enthusiasm. That’s a lot of momentum. Godspeed, Trump.