The Republican healthcare bill looks likely to open up opportunities for Democrats in 2018 and 2020, and Democrats are getting ready for that fight even as they fight to stop the bill now and keep tens of millions of people from losing their health coverage. The 2018 Senate map is terrible for Democrats, but the only two Republicans who could be vulnerable are being put in an interesting position here:
"This is moving from theoretical conversations about what the plan would potentially do, to a very real impact on seniors where they could be forced to pay up to five times for care," said one Democratic aide tasked with winning back the Senate.
The aide added Democrats expect the predicted rate hikes could be felt on seniors right before voters go to the polls making the message resonate even more.
Republican Sens. Jeff Flake of Arizona and Dean Heller of Nevada are of particular interest to Democrats. Both their states have a sizable number of senior voters, and were fertile ground for Clinton -- she won Nevada and lost Arizona by just 4%. Voters 65 and older backed Trump over Clinton nationally by 7% in 2016, according to exit polls. In Arizona, that number was a more stark -- 13%. But in Nevada, Clinton won seniors by 5%.
Those numbers should give Flake and Heller pause as they consider whether they really want to make costs for seniors skyrocket. But the electoral damage Republicans could face isn’t limited to a couple of races in 2018:
Longtime Democratic operative James Carville bluntly told donors at an American Bridge summit in Florida earlier this year: "The mover on health care loses; to do something is to lose."
When Democrats passed Obamacare, Republicans and outside groups pounded them with ads claiming that an effort to provide people with affordable health care was a terrible, terrible thing. Now, Republicans are ready to take that health care away—just as people are realizing Obamacare is helping them—and Democrats are ready to pound the hell out of them for it. Of course, it would be better if no one lost their health care to begin with.