Late on Thursday, a federal district court struck down the state House map that Texas Republicans drew in 2011 on the grounds that it intentionally engaged in racial discrimination in violation of the Voting Rights Act, the 14th Amendment, and the “one person, one vote” principle. This major voting rights victory could subsequently result in Republican legislators having to draw a new map for the 2018 elections that would give black and Latino voters the ability to elect their preferred candidates in more districts, most likely Democrats.
Thursday’s ruling follows two separate recent court decisions that invalidated the Texas GOP’s congressional map and strict voter ID law, and all three crucially held that Republicans intentionally racially discriminated. This illicit racial intent could be grounds for forcing Texas to seek Justice Department approval for all new voting-law changes for up to ten years, which it previously had to do until the Supreme Court struck down a key part of the Voting Rights Act in 2013. While Attorney General Jeff Sessions is unlikely to block new oppressive voting laws, a future Democratic administration could.
Making matters more complicated, federal courts had blocked the 2011 map from taking effect in full, imposing temporary changes ahead of the 2012 cycle that still largely left the original gerrymander in place. However, Republican legislators later passed a new plan in 2013 to make most of those changes permanent. That means there will have to be a separate legal challenge to that plan too since it’s the one currently in existence, but that litigation should be much easier and quicker if Thursday’s ruling against the original 2011 map stands.
Absurdly, this case has been ongoing ever since 2011, and litigants completed their arguments all the way back in 2014. Plaintiffs had rightly been outraged that the court was dragging its feet on issuing its ruling. Republicans have potentially gotten away with an illegal racial gerrymander for a majority of this decade, demonstrating how it pays to illegally gerrymander, since the court of course can’t invalidate the last three election results held under the existing map.
There’s still a long way to go before this litigation concludes, and it infuriatingly still might not be over in time to affect the 2018 elections. This ruling will also have to survive a likely appeal to the Supreme Court, but given swing Justice Anthony Kennedy’s frequent recent hostility to racial gerrymandering, there’s a good chance of success. If the plaintiffs ultimately prevail, Texas could end up with new state House districts that increase representation for black and Latino voters, and consequently Democrats too.