There have been a couple of Google poll results released but I don’t put much stock in them since they are still self-selected polls. I’m not sure that a known pollster has released any results before now.
April 25, 2017
Emerson College Poll: Greg Gianforte (R) coasts with double-digit lead in MT congressional race. Voters show favorable opinion of Donald Trump, strong support of Keystone XL pipeline.
BOSTON, MA
A new poll shows Republican Greg Gianforte ahead of Democrat Rob Quist in the race for Montana’s newly vacant congressional seat. Gianforte yields 52% of the vote to Quist’s 37%. Libertarian Mark Wicks takes 5% of the vote, while 7% of Montana voters remain undecided.
Since Montana has only one congressional district, this will be the first statewide election since President Trump took office.
snip…
The Montana congressional election poll was conducted April 20-21by Peyton Lewis ’18 under the supervision of Professor Spencer Kimball. The sample consisted of voters, n=648, who indicated they were very likely to vote in the May 25th special election to replace Rep. Ryan Zinke. The margin of error (MOE) for this survey is +/-3.8%, with a 95% confidence interval.
The data was weighted by 2016 election results, age, education, gender, and region. Data was collected using an Interactive Voice Response (IVR) system of landlines. The full methodology and results of this survey is posted on www.theecps.com, and this survey’s full instrument can be found below.
media.wix.com/…
I don’t know how much stock to put in this poll given their prior performance.
The much-lauded Emerson College poll of Utahans, which put independent candidate Evan McMullin ahead of Trump and Clinton, has its own issues regarding reliability. FiveThirtyEight found that among 12 pollsters (ranging from Fox News to Marist), Emerson was one of four pollsters which underperformed. Emerson College received a ‘B’ rating from FiveThirtyEight, as well. Also, note that the Emerson College poll is conducted, in part, by college students, which could affect reliability.
Additionally, Hot Air did an interesting analysis of Emerson’s polling in Ohio and Pennsylvania, and discussed how some of Emerson’s poll results would raise an eyebrow under normal circumstances.
www.aim.org/…
I watch CBS in the evenings and the TV ads wars are heating up, mostly from outside groups like the Congressional Leadership Fund on behalf of Gianforte (aka Giantfart). Rob’s ads are right there just before or after. However, he is behind in the ad count. I did a count one day covering 5:30 to 10:30 pm last week and it was 22-16.
robquist.org
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