The Washington Post's fact-checker, Glenn Kessler, apparently has had enough with statements like this from the likes of Speaker Paul Ryan: "If we do nothing, premiums will go far, far, far higher than they would otherwise go up. . . . I think they’ll go down once this system comes into place." And from popular vote loser Donald Trump: "The best thing that is happening with the health care is premiums will come down."
No, they won't, Kessler explains. Premiums are going to do what they always do—increase—whether it's Trumpcare or Obamacare or employer-based insurance. What Republicans are doing with this talking point is twisting part of the Congressional Budget Office's score of original Trumpcare (the score for Zombie Trumpcare still hasn't been released, despite the fact that the House already passed it). Kessler patiently, and in small words that Republicans might understand, explains.
[A]s we have frequently explained, the reference in the report is compared to current law — the Affordable Care Act. What CBO does is measure the impact of a proposed law against a current law baseline. So average premiums by 2026 are projected to be roughly 10 percent lower than the baseline for the Affordable Care Act — but they still would go up.
And then there's this part.
CBO does not provide quite enough data to produce a year-by-year chart. If it did, you would see dramatic changes in premiums in the 2019-2020 period. That’s when the ACA’s age ban, which limits the premiums of older Americans to no more than three times the cost paid by younger Americans, would be changed to a 5-to-1 ratio under the GOP plan. So a more complete chart would show a drop in 2020 premium prices for 21-year-olds and a big spike for 64-year-olds. Still, even 21-year-olds would experience higher premiums by 2026.
One key reason for the lower average premium in 2026, compared to current law, is that older Americans increasingly would be priced out of the market, resulting in a younger, healthier mix of policyholders.
Short-term lower premiums than under Obamacare—but increasing every year anyway—for ten years and then BOOM! Older people are priced out. (Here's a good place for the reminder about the $3 billion the CBO says Social Security will be saving, when those older people without health insurance croak before they use benefits.)
Kessler's customary Pinocchios are missing from this analysis, but you don't really need his hokey ratings system to understand that when Republicans are telling you things are going to be better under Trumpcare, they're lying. Give them all the Pinocchios.