which has the subtitle “How Putin’s Cyberspies and WikiLeaks Tried to Steal the 2016 Election.” Nance, a retired Naval Chief Petty Officer with a 30+ year career in intelligence, is a familiar figure to those who watch MSNBC. (He has also become a target of Louise Mensch, another reason I tend to view what she post with more than a little skepticism.)
What is important to note is that this book was written and published BEFORE the election. Given what happened in November, one might wonder whether were he publishing it today, updated with the additional information now known, rather than say “Tried to Steal” he might go so far as to say “Stole.”
Those who have seen Nance often on TV will not necessarily be surprised by any particular thing about which he writes. And yet, even if as I have you have seen most of his TV appearances and follow him on twitters (@MalcolmNance), you are likely to be surprised, even shocked, at how much he presents. Remember, this was known before the election, and almost certainly does not include ALL that was known.
Before I get into some material from the book, remember this: when President Obama wanted to alert the American public about what the Russians were doing based on intelligence, one voice objected and it was not done, that voice being Senate Republican leader McConnell, whose objection kept the alert from going it.
The foreward to the book is written by Spencer Ackerman, US National Security editor for The Guardian, which as an independent publication has become a necessary read for anyone who truly wants to know what is going on in the world. It is worth quoting two parts from that forward.
The first appears after Ackerman talks about the breach of the DNC emails:
Cybersecurity researchers analyzing the committee network breach noticed that the particulars of the attack showed distinct patterns for gaining access — familiar patterns. Their tools were prohibitively expensive for random hackers, particularly their use of previously unknown software flaws Instead, the researchers concluded, the hack was the work of two well-known groups tied to Russian Intellgigence. They are known by the weird names Fancy Bear and Cozy Bear. (p. ix)
Several comments about this passage. The Cozy and Fancy might seem “weird” but folks should remember that the bear has long been viewed as a symbol of Russia, before, during and after it was the dominant part of the Soviet Union. And as you go through the book, you will read the massive amount of material that Nance has to offer on these two groups.
And here is what is important. Every single assertion Nance offers is backed by material from the PUBLIC record, clearly documented in end notes that run from page 155 through page 186. I will return to this point.
I also want to offer Ackerman’s final two paragraphs:
As of this writing, the election is undecided And there are knowledgeable cybersecurity researchers skeptical of Russian involvement. So here comes Malcolm Nance, an intelligence, counterterrorism, and national-security lifer, to sort out what’s known, what’s suspected, and what it all means. If you’ve read books like The Terrorists of Iraq and Defeating Isis, you know Malcolm’s expertise. If you’e seen his 2007 congressional testimony using his firsthand experience with waterboarding to call it torture — back when that was controversial — you know Malcolm’s integrity. And if you’ve spent any time with his fellow Navy senior chiefs you know Malcolm’s bluntness.
It’s worth scrutinizing this bizarre episode in American politics and security. It’s unlikely to be a one-off event. After all, bears tend to go where they want — unless something stops. them. (p. x)
Ackerman wrote that introduction in September. Looking at recent Russian activity in the elections and politics of other countries since our election, that final paragraph should serve as a warning, and give you good reason to read what Nance wrote BEFORE our election.
Now to the book itself.
Nance started his career expecting to be an expert on things Russian, starting the language on his own, although he got diverted to issues of the Middle East for some time. He tells us about his background before going into how the change from the KGB to the FSB after the end of the Soviet Union led to what we now experience, Hybrid Warfare, “a melange of hostile cyber political, and pychological operations in support of their national objectives, whether during peacetime or in open war. It is now standard operating procedure.” (p. xiv)
When news of the stolen DNC data broke, it reminded Nance of patterns with which every intelligence official would have been aware. Further, he quotes a former KGB officer who said the KGB
targeted “Ego-centric people who lack moral principles — who are either too greedy or who suffer from exaggerated self importance. These are people the KBJ wants and finds easiest to recruit.” (p. xv)
Those words should help put into context the where the cyberattack fits in with the overall objectives of Putin and the Kremlin. Nance makes this clear with the final paragraph of his preface, on p. xvii:
This is a real-life spy thriller, happening in real time. It is my hope that The Plot to Hack America will inform the American electorate of how Russia executed a ful-scale political and cyber war on America, starting with Watergate 2.0, to elect Donad Trump president of the United States.
Let me outline the flow of the book by listing the chapter titles, before I offer a few more select passages and some commentary of my own.
Here are the chapter titles:
1. WATERGATE 2.0 this outlines the background to Trump entering the election, including his history of attacking Obama, his being ridiculed at the White House Correspondents Dinner and more.
2. SUSPICIONS OF SOMETHING MORE SINISTER this provides some context both to some of the Russian connections around Trump (eg Manafort), what information was targeted, previous foreign attempts at influencing elections (Chines in 2008), the planting of false information, and more.
3. THE SPYMASTER-IN-CHIEF what you need to know about Vladimir Putin
4. TRUMP’S AGENTS, PUTIN’S ASSETS? This is an extensive, and detailed chapter, and includes both Trump’s financial history with Russians as well as information on other figures, some regularly discussed like Carter Page, others who have been around a while but have not figured in news stories, such as Dmitri Sime and Richard Burt.
5. OPERATION LUCKY-7: THE KREMLIN PLAN TO ELECT A PRESIDENT this lays out the objectives of such a plan, as well as the steps(about which more below).
6. BATTLES OF THE CYBER BEARS all you ever wanted to know about Cozy Bear and Fancy Bear and more. This runs from p. 83 through p 109.
7. WIKILEAKS: RUSSIA’S INTELLIGENCE LAUNDROMAT by now I presume that most here accept that Assange and Wikileaks were serving effectively as agents of the Russians. Before the election far too many dismissed the idea. Read this chapter and you will no longer be so ready to dismiss the idea, even if you still were. Among other things, all of the material of WikiLeaks is now housed on servers in Russian controlled by allies of Putin. Here are the final words of this chapter, on p. 121:
WikiLeaks was now a wholly owned subsidiary of the FSB and essentially the cyber equivalent of a laudromat, a Russian Laundry — ready to clean and give a white appearance to the dirt.
8. WHEN CYBER BEARS ATTACK This chapter explains the denouement of the attacks, among other things, including responses.
9. CYBERWAR TO DEFEND DEMOCRACY This is the final chapter, relatively brief.
Let me start by quoting several passages from that final chapter. Nance offers these to emphasize how serious he viewed what was confronting us then.
p. 145:
Without any question, no matter what side of the aisle one sits on, the simple fact is that the United States was attacked by Russian cyber commandos deployed by Vladimir Putin and organized by his intelligence apparatus,the FSB and the GRU. It was a serious act of public warfare.
Given that fact, it seems hard to accept how readily Trump wants to affiliate with Russia, share information with Russia, brag to Russians. Hard to accept, although at this point, with all we know, hardly surprising.
p. 147:
It has been said that this election would spell the rise of fascism and end the two-century-long run of American democratic governance. It may be worse than that. The deliberate subversion of America’s interests to those of a hostile adversary has never before been suggested aloud in polite company in the history of this nation.
Never before. And yet now we see it happening far too regularly. And even if the other nation involved might not be considered hostile (Russia may be, Turkey normally is not) we see things like Trump’s personal financial interests and those of his family taking precedence over what should be the priorities of the American people and the nation.
P. 153 — this passage was written in the expectation that the Lucky-7 plot would NOT succeed in electing Trump, which would NOT have made it a failure in Russian eyes:
The greatest danger now is that any outcome other than the election of Donald Trump will not be accepted and demands for a new election and rejection of the results will cripple the nation in ways not seen since the 1860 secession. It could lead some states to suggest just that should the outcome not be to their liking. At that point the prospect of a second American civil war is not only viable, but likely.
If you think Nance was being alarmist in those words, consider only how much hatred, vitriol and violence has been unleashed as a result of Trump winning. Consider the violence we saw during the campaign. Was Nance being extreme?
I am going to save the final words Nance offers for the end of this passage.
Meanwhile I want to return to the outline of the strategy, the LUCKY-7 plan, as Nance lists on p. 80:
PHASE 1: Make Contact, Befriend, and Encourage the Asset
PHASE2: Make Asset Feel Indebted to Russi
PHASE 3: Conduct Covert Cyber-Intelligence Preparation of the Battle Space
PHASE 4: Prepare the Political Battle Space
PHASE 5: Develop and Sustain Supporting Political/Propaganda
PHASE 6: Fund and Manipulate a Cutout Asset to Disperse Kompromat Information
PHASE 7: Execute Kompromat Operations
It is worth noting that there is pretty strong evidence of folks in Russia seeking to cultivate Trump years before he got financially heavily involved, or brought his pageant to Moscow. Those efforts go back to at least the 1980s, and might well have been the casting of a wide net, recognizing how Trump could be possibly manipulated in the future, so that for a relatively small investment then should he become a significant figure he could become a more important asset.
We still do not know the full scope either of Trump’s connections with the Russians nor of their efforts in the election cycle that resulted in Trump becoming President. We don’t know how many others may have been compromised or influenced (perhaps without their realizing), although as time goes on we begin to get a fuller picture.
What we do know is that the efforts by the Russians have not ended and will not end. They take many forms, including events like last week’s Oval Office visit by two significant Russians, a meeting that was granted at the request of Putin, apparently with the granting not being fully vetted by folks in the national security apparatus or knowledgeable folks in diplomacy — otherwise why were Russians with electronic equipment let into the White House.
So to convince you to read this important book, let me close as does Malcolm Nance, with his final two paragraphs on p. 153, which end with a blunt warning:
The Russian use of cyber weapons to perform criminal acts and damage our electoral process was intended to remove faith in America itself. Along with Donald Trump’s claims that the election will be rigged, they have achieved this goal. Due to their meddling, activities that were considered routine politics in America are now suspect. Politics itself is under fire, due to the combination of hacking and demagoguery.
Though we have yet to see an actual disruption that matters in the lives of the average American citizen, one can be sure that it will come at a time when, once recognized, the only alternative to the attack may be a real war.
UPDATE: Apparently @MalcolmNance like what I wrote:
As a result am getting a lot of traffic on twitter, and I suppose there are a lot of people not members coming over here and reading this review.