Some final thought as we close out the night. There’s no question that this result feels disappointing to a lot of people. But Gianforte’s 7-point margin means this race was fully 13 points closer than Trump’s 20-point victory last fall. In fact, this was the tightest House race in Montana in 17 years, when Republicans won by 5 points in the 2000 elections. What’s more, outside Republican groups, including the NRCC and the Congressional Leadership Fund, spent heavily—almost $6 million—to ensure Gianforte’s victory.
Democratic organizations, meanwhile, put in just $650,000 for Quist, though the candidate’s own fundraising was exceptionally strong. (Quist said he’d raised $6 million for his campaign; Gianforte appears to have raised less, though he self-funded at least $1.5 million.) At this point, it’s unclear how much—or even whether—Gianforte’s violent election eve outburst affected the final margin, though with perhaps as much as two-thirds of the vote cast early, the impact was necessarily going to be limited.
In the end, while Democrats once again wound up moving the needle back toward blue, it wasn’t far enough to overcome Montana’s strong red tilt. As we said at the outset when Daily Kos first endorsed Rob Quist, this was always going to be a very difficult contest to win. But it’s no accident that Trump (or Steve Bannon) chose congressmen from historically Republican districts for his cabinet—they weren’t going to give Democrats any easy pickup opportunities.
Fortunately for Democrats, Trump did screw up at least one appointment, since Georgia’s traditionally dark red 6th District has turned into a very competitive race. But even more importantly, the playing field for next year’s midterms is much more favorable for Team Blue than it’s been in the handful of special elections that have taken place this year.
And in addition to sending grassroots enthusiasm through the roof, Trump has also inspired huge numbers of Democratic candidates to jump into House races across the country. We've been analyzing elections for a long time, and we haven't seen recruitment like this in a decade—when Democrats were in the midst of enjoying two successive wave elections. Republicans might be breathing a sigh of relief that their morally reprehensible candidate won on Thursday night, but they should still be worried about 2018.
As for Gianforte, he still has to appear in court by June 7. Depending on the outcome of his legal proceedings, he could yet find himself vulnerable next year, whether in a primary or a general election.
Anyhow, thank you all for joining us, and tune back in on June 20 for our next election liveblog!