On Tuesday, voters in Virginia will cast ballots for their state’s primaries for this November’s statewide elections. Virginia is the only state that limits its governor to one consecutive term, and both parties have primaries to replace Democratic Gov. Terry McAuliffe. Virginia and New Jersey are also the only states that will hold gubernatorial elections this year, and while the GOP will have a very tough time holding onto New Jersey, both sides will compete hard in the Old Dominion this fall.
In addition, all 100 seats in Virginia’s GOP-held House of Delegates will go before voters, though the state Senate is not up again until 2019. Democrats are hoping to make gains in the lower chamber this year, and the party’s recruitment has been unusually strong. However, Republicans hold a two-to-one advantage in seats, and if they can retain the House while picking up the governorship, they’ll take complete control over state government.
Below is our look at the key primaries to watch. Polls close at 7 PM ET, and we’ll be liveblogging all the results at Daily Kos Elections and tweeting as well.
● VA-Gov (D & R): Lt. Gov. Ralph Northam had the Democratic primary to himself for a year and a half, but in a complete surprise, ex-Rep. Tom Perriello jumped into the race in January without any warning. The unexpected contest has largely turned into a battle between state and national Democrats. Northam, a former state senator from the Hampton Roads area, had the backing of McAuliffe, as well as most of Virginia’s Democratic congressional delegation and state legislators.
But Perriello, who represented a conservative seat that stretched from the southern portion of the state into the Charlottesville area, earned favorable attention from Democrats during his one term in the House for vocally supporting Obamacare, even though he risked his political future to do so (indeed, he lost in the GOP wave of 2010). While Perriello’s in-state endorsements have been fewer, he has the backing of two well-known New England U.S. senators, Elizabeth Warren and Bernie Sanders. Perriello, who went on to serve in the State Department after his 2010 defeat, also has support from influential former members of the Obama administration.
Both candidates have been trying to portray themselves as the more progressive candidate, and while Perriello has focused more attention on Trump than Northam has, the lieutenant governor has also taken some shots at Trump on TV. To the relief of Old Dominion Democrats, neither candidate nor their allies has spent much money on negative ads.
However, Northam has been decisively outspending Perriello on TV, which could make all the difference in a primary where neither candidate started with much support from voters. Unfortunately, though, polling has been scarce here. In mid-May, Northam’s campaign and an allied group each released a survey giving him a double-digit lead, but a week before the primary, Perriello’s team dropped a survey giving him a slim 37-36 edge. There has been no reliable independent polling in weeks.
The GOP contest has been less eventful. Former Republican National Committee head Ed Gillespie lost his 2014 Senate race to Democratic incumbent Mark Warner by a shockingly close margin, and he soon began planning a follow-up gubernatorial campaign. There has also been little polling here, but Gillespie has consistently posted wide leads.
Gillespie has also massively outspent both his opponents, which will make it tough for them to pull ahead. Corey Stewart, the Trump-loving chair of the Prince William County Board of Supervisors, has spent untold hours on social media trying to refight the Civil War and defending Nazi Twitter frogs, but his activities don’t seem to be firing up primary voters or donors. State Sen. Frank Wagner, the third wheel, hasn't made much of an impression during this campaign, nor has he brought in much cash. Any result other than a decisive Gillespie win would be a huge surprise.
● VA-LG (D & R): In Virginia, the governor and lieutenant governor are elected separately, and this office is a very important one. The GOP holds a small 21-19 majority in the state Senate, and the chamber will be up again in 2019. If Democrats can net just one district that year (or somehow take a seat before then in a special election or through a party switch), it will be up to the new lieutenant governor to break the ensuing deadlock and decide which party controls the chamber. This post is also a good launching pad for higher office: Aside from attorney general, Virginia doesn't have any other statewide elected offices besides governor and U.S. senator.
The GOP primary has been an incredibly nasty contest. For months, state Sen. Bryce Reeves has accused primary rival and fellow state Sen. Jill Holtzman Vogel of sending out an email under a pseudonym insinuating that he had an affair with a campaign staffer. Vogel has denied it, but subpoenaed records link those messages to Vogel's home IP address and to her husband's phone. (Vogel claims that her family was hacked, and a judge denied Reeves’ request to depose her.) A third Republican, Del. Glenn Davis Jr., is also running, though he hasn't attracted much fire from his opponents. As with every other Virginia race, we have basically bupkes for polling. However, Vogel has clearly outspent Reeves, while Davis has few resources.
The Democratic primary has attracted far less attention, which probably isn’t a bad thing. Former federal prosecutor Justin Fairfax, who lost the 2013 primary for attorney general to eventual winner Mark Herring 52-48, has decisively outspent both his primary foes. Also in the mix are Susan Platt, who served as Joe Biden's chief of staff in the Senate in the 1990s, and former federal prosecutor Gene Rossi.
● State House District 13 (D): Republican Del. Bob Marshall is perhaps the most infamous member of the state legislature. Among many other things, Marshall characterized disabled children as divine “vengeance” on women who have had abortions. This year, Marshall also introduced a bill this year that would have emulated North Carolina’s notorious anti-LGBT HB2. But while Democrats have regularly targeted Marshall in this Northern Virginia seat, he has always won. Team Blue is hoping that this will finally be the year that they can rid themselves of Marshall, and four candidates are competing to face him.
Former Detroit-area prosecutor Steven Jansen, who leads a Northern Virginia-based gun safety group, has raised the most cash this year, while businessman Mansimran Kahlon isn’t far behind. Former journalist Danica Roem, who would be Virginia’s first transgender legislator, has also brought in a credible amount of money. Roem has sharply criticized Marshall’s support for his North Carolina-style “bathroom bill,” saying that “Bob Marshall is more concerned about where I use the bathroom than how to get people to work.” Meanwhile, Army veteran Andrew Adams, the fourth candidate, has brought in comparatively little cash. Clinton won this seat 55-40 and McAuliffe took it 48-47, but Marshall has proven to be a very tough opponent.