By Alec Kohut
I have written about the divide between Northern Virginia and the Old Dominion in previous posts. The 31st District, consisting of parts of Prince William and Fauquier Counties, is another district highlighting that divide. The eastern side of the district consists of the ethnically diverse DC suburbs, including parts of Dale City. While the western and northern parts of the district are rural, and less diverse.
In 2013, Democrat Jeremy McPike lost to GOP incumbent Scott Lingamfelter by just 228 votes. In Prince William County, McPike won by 1872 votes, in Fauquier County, Lingamfelter won by exactly 2,100.
Our candidate this year is Elizabeth Guzman, a social worker, in the field of child abuse prevention, with four children of her own. When she prevails, she will be the first Latina woman to serve in the Virginia house of Delegates.
The Guzman campaign is not ignoring Fauquier County, they have a full-time field person working to minimize Lingafelter’s advantage in the county. I believe if the margin can be shrunk to under 2,000 votes in Fauquier County, Guzman win’s.
2017 presents a wonderful opportunity to flip this district, and could happen with big turnout in just one precinct, Belville. Near Dale City, McPike carried the Belville precinct by 406 votes, in 2016, Hillary Clinton beat Trump by 1,010 votes.
This illuminates the reality that the votes needed to flip this, and other, districts are already there. We just need to get them to the polls.
This district is part of several in Northern Virginia where demographic shifts are changing the electoral landscape. Blue areas, are growing faster than Red areas.
At Turnout Blue, we have identified precincts in which low-propensity voters, those who have voted only in Presidential elections, favored Hillary Clinton by a substantial margin. In the 31st district, we have four such precincts, where greater turnout will benefit Guzman’s bid to flip this seat:
602 Beville – The road to Richmond is paved right through the Belville precinct. In 2013, McPike won it by 406 votes, in 2016 Hillary wot it by 1,010. Clinton received 694 more votes in 2016, than did Ralph Northam, the top vote-getting Democrat in 2013. On the GOP side, Trump only gained 162 votes vs. Governor candidate Ken Cuccinelli.
That means, low-propensity votes in this precinct, favored Clinton at an 81-19% margin. Those voters, are Turnout Blue’s target.
310 Forest Park – 75% of the low-propensity voter favored Clinton, 375 to 126.
608 Enterprise – 79% of the low-propensity voters cast their ballot for Clinton, 445 to 117.
611 Neabsco – This is a new precinct created after the 2013 election. So, the only comparison we have is to the 2014 contest between Sen. Mark Warner and Ed Gillespie. Of the voters in this precinct that did not cast a ballot in 2014, but did in 2016, Hillary Clinton won 502, of the 600 votes. That’s an 84% share of the low-propensity voters!
This means that in the universe of 2,519 low-propensity voters in these four precincts, 2,016 voted for Hillary Clinton, only 503 voted for Trump.
If there was ever a time, and place to activate these low-propensity voters, it’s 2017, in Virginia.
The number of voters that Turnout Blue will reach, depends on the money we can raise. Click here to help us reach these low-propensity voters.
About Me:
I worked in politics several years ago, and as saw the level of energy among Democrats and progressives after the 2016 election, I decided to get active, and to use my experience to help. The Women’s March, and the efforts of the those who organized the Women’s Summit in Leesburg, VA on June 24th, motivated me to do more.
Working in campaigns, I know that voters who only show up in Presidential elections are rarely targeted, because they are not likely voters. But this year is different, and if there was ever a time to get them to the polls in an off-year election, this is it.
So, I have formed a political committee, and have begun raising money to activate these voters in targeted precincts.
The more resources we have, the more low-propensity voters we will reach. Help by contributing here.
To volunteer, or to learn more about Turnout Blue, e-mail me at: TurnoutBlue@gmail.com, or call me 703-623-0886.
Thanks, Alec