Rich Hobson, a longtime aide to ex-Alabama Supreme Court Justice Roy Moore who served as campaign manager during Moore's failed Senate bid last year, announced on Wednesday that he would oppose GOP Rep. Martha Roby in the June primary for this safely red seat. Hobson took a few pages from his boss's book during his kickoff and declared that the women who accused Moore of sexual abuse and harassment should "come clean," and that the "liberal elite in America pulled off the biggest political assassination of our time" when Moore lost to Democrat Doug Jones.
There's a good reason why Roby looks like such a tempting target in Alabama’s 2nd Congressional District, which includes part of Montgomery as well as the Wiregrass region. One month before the 2016 election, Roby pissed off local conservatives when she said she wouldn't vote for Trump after the Access Hollywood tape was released, and her detractors launched a general election write-in campaign. While Trump carried her Montgomery-area seat 65-33, Roby turned back her underfunded Democratic rival only 49-41, with the rest going to write-ins. Since then, Roby has kept her head down and been a reliable Trump supporter, and the White House hasn't shown any obvious interest in unseating her. It's also not clear how angry the conservative grassroots are over a year later.
However, Hobson isn't the only Republican who is betting that Roby is beatable. Both state Rep. Barry Moore and Iraq veteran Tommy Amason have been running for months, though neither of them has raised much money. And there's good reason to think that Hobson won't, either. While Moore has always had an intense following among Alabama Republicans, he's always struggled to raise money for his campaigns. The GOP establishment utterly hates Moore especially now that he cost them a Senate seat, and Hobson probably won't raise much cash if he's depending on Moore fans to be his donors.
Moore himself still has a legion of Republican voters who worship him and have convinced themselves he was the subject of a smear campaign, and if he can send them Hobson's way, things could get interesting in the June primary. However, Moore's own primary win last year gives us some reason to be skeptical that even his base will vote for Hobson like they've voted for Moore. Donald Trump, who also has a massive cult-like following in GOP politics, endorsed incumbent Luther Strange over Moore in the Senate primary, but Trump-loving Republicans didn't see any issue defying him and voting for Moore.
If enough pro-Moore primary voters have forgiven or forgotten about Roby's transgressions, they may feel fine going against him and backing the congresswoman. And there are certainly many Republicans who don't like Moore and would be very reluctant to back his protégé. However, Roby still needs to be wary in June. Alabama requires a primary runoff if no one takes a majority in the first round, so the incumbent can't just count on her opponents splitting the anti-Roby vote enough to allow her to win with a plurality.