David Leonhardt gazes into the abyss:
Leonhardt states that the odds currently favor Democrats taking control of the House, although the Senate may be out of reach — but he also notes that there are no guarantees.
Voters who lean Republican — including whites across the South — could set aside their disappointment with Trump and vote for Republican congressional candidates. Voters who lean left — including Latinos and younger adults — could turn out in low numbers, as they usually do in midterm elections. The Republicans’ continuing efforts to suppress turnout could also swing a few close elections.
What follows from that? Leonhardt lays out the likely scenario.
It would be validation for Trump, who could then brag that he had defied the experts once again. It would mean he had outperformed Barack Obama, Bill Clinton, Ronald Reagan, Lyndon Johnson and Harry Truman, all of whom suffered drubbings in the first midterm election of their presidency. It would embolden Trump to push even harder toward the America he wants — where corporate oversight is scant, climate change is ignored, voting rights are abridged, health care is a privilege, judicial independence is a fiction and the truth is whatever he says it is.
More than that, it would be seen by the GOP as a sign to go full speed ahead with their agenda. Leonhardt looks at would would likely happen with the Russia investigation, healthcare, and the rest of the legislative agenda of the GOP. That alone is scary enough, but there’s more that could be in the pipeline.
He doesn’t discuss the increasing likelihood of war with somebody (Iran seems to be at the top of the list at the moment), or the possibility of another economic collapse. He doesn’t bring up how the US is increasingly unable to deal with the disasters from climate change or other challenges that government once could be depended on to address. He doesn’t bring up the increasing likelihood of mob violence by emboldened Trump supporters, or the sabotage of our government and society through information warfare by hostile foreign powers. He doesn’t mention the collapse of international relationships that have stabilized the world through cooperation, not confrontation.
Read The Whole Thing.
None of this is CT. It’s all too likely given continuing Republican control of our government. If they pick up control of a few more states, they could even call for a constitutional convention and rewrite it to guarantee their grip on power forever — or until everything finally collapses. We know they’re doing everything they can to rig the election, and if Vladimir Putin wants to lend a hand, we already know they are okay with that.
The mystery to me is why the Democratic Party is tip-toeing around this instead of putting it front and center. A vote for Republicans anywhere is a vote for the end of Obamacare, Social Security, Medicare, and Medicaid. It’s a vote for lower wages and a deteriorating environment. It’s a vote for fear and division. Why can’t that be used as a compelling message?
One answer is that we now live in a time where lying is rewarded, and telling the truth is punished. Arguing based on facts is ‘political and partisan’, while making claims based on nothing more than egregious bullshit gets swallowed down whole. The president speaks out of both sides of his mouth and his butthole — and the media treats it all as credible. There seems to be greater fear of the ‘radical left’ than the increasingly fascist right.
And God only knows what Trump will pull out of his ass for an ‘October Surprise’.
“The best lack all conviction, while the worst
Are full of passionate intensity.”
This is the most important election of our lifetimes. The world is made by the people who show up for the job. We damn well better show up — and keep showing up after the election. The job is never done.