cdn.cnn.com/…
A CNN/SSRS poll of likely Florida voters shows Democratic Senator Bill Nelson with a 50% to 45% lead over Rick Scott. Democrat Andrew Gillum has a 54% to 42% advantage over Republican Ron DeSantis for Governor of Florida in the same poll.
projects.fivethirtyeight.com/...
Gillum has a lead in every recent poll listed by website 538, but this his biggest lead yet. Some 88% of likely voters say that their mind is made up and will not change.
Women plan to vote for Gillum by a 60% to 34% margin. Men favor DeSantis by 46% to 52%. White voters say they will vote for DeSantis by 44% to 52%, and nonwhite voters support Gillum by 74% to 23%.
For Florida, 12% is a huge lead. Rick Scott won the Governor’s racer twice by about 1%. Charlie Christ in 2006 won by 7%. You have to go all the way back to 2002 when Jeb Bush won by 13% for anything comparable.
If this large a lead holds up, Gillum could help Nelson win reelection in the Senate and help in down ballot races. Florida US House races in CD-26 and CD-27 are Republican seats raced as tossups by Cook. CD-15 and CD-16 are lean Republican and CD-6, CD-18, and CD-25 are rated likely Republican by Cook Political Ratings.
The poll shows Donald Trump has the approval of 42% of likely Florida voters and is disapproved by 50%.
The study was conducted for CNN via telephone by SSRS, an independent research company. Interviews were conducted from October 16, 2018 to October 20, 2018 among a sample of 1,012 respondents who live in Florida. The landline total respondents were 405 and there were 607 cell phone respondents. The margin of sampling error for total respondents is +/-3.6 at the 95% confidence level, for results among the 872 registered voters it is +/-3.9, and for results among the 759 likely voters it is +/-4.2. The design effect is 1.40.
Website 538 rates CNN/SSRS as an A- Poll.
Total |
Reg. Dem. |
ReG. Rep. |
Other |
Ind. |
Actual Early Votes in Florida by 10/21
923,652 |
354,056 |
406,118 |
4905 |
158,573 |
|
38.3% |
44.0% |
0.5% |
17.2% |
These are early mail-in ballots, the Democratic percentage should take off once early in-person voting begins.
www.electproject.org/...
Sunday, Oct 21, 2018 · 10:10:52 PM +00:00 · mastergardener2k
Second Florida Poll Has Gillum +6%
www.politico.com/…
Schroth, Eldon and Associates just came out with its own Florida poll giving Gillum a lead of 48% to 42%. Something of a confirmation that Gillum has a lead.
Scott leads Nelson in this poll 47% to 45%.
Trump’s approval is 47% versus 45% who disapprove.
538 rates this as a B- poll.